Monkey’s Market Minute: July 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets will be closed tomorrow due to Independence Day, but job numbers came in better than expected due to government hiring. A few months ago, the government was laying people off, and it was killing the labor market, but now the government is hiring again to stabilize the labor market. Everything is welfare.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-sparks-domestic-labor-renaissance-native-born-workers-surge-record-high-foreign-born , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-gained-and-dollar-strengthened-after-strong-us-jobs-data-newsquawk-asia-pac , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blowout-june-payrolls-147k-jobs-added-smashing-expectations-unemployment-rate-drops-41 , https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1940756206760689747

- It’s not all sunshine and rainbows, though. The blowout job numbers caused investors to panic because we’re in a “bad news is good news” environment, so positive job numbers (even if it was government-driven) mean that rate cuts and bailouts are LESS likely.
source: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-070325/card/10-year-yield-breaches-200-day-moving-average-pQN99bugiL17sQdJrkzL

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Information Technology
o 2. Financials
o 3. S&P 500 Index
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Utilities
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Communications Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Gold
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. Bitcoin
o 7. Broad Commodities

- The telltale sign of either irrational stupidity or market manipulation is that the market goes up no matter what. If the fundamentals are dog shit, then bailouts and lower rates are right around the corner and number go up. If the job numbers come in better than expected and rate cuts and bailouts are less likely, the number STILL goes up because the recession is cancelled apparently.

- In geopolitics, no deal from Hamas so far, but they’re looking over the offer. Supposedly, Trump pinky promises to stop the genocide and not just let Israel do whatever it wants as soon as the hostages are released.
source: https://x.com/MENAUncensored/status/1940899666067181689

- No updates regarding the talks between Russia and Israel regarding Iran. I suspect they aren’t going well from Israel’s perspective because Russia has literally no reason to cooperate.

- Finally, a top Chinese diplomat said something telling today. He admitted that China cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine because China knows that they would be next for the United States, and they would prefer to keep the US distracted elsewhere. While this may not seem important, consider the entire BRICS alliance is in the same boat, particularly Iran. I said on the show that Russia and China have EVERY INCENTIVE to support Iran because Israel is far too important to the Regime to abandon, and by supporting Iran Russia and China not only cause the Regime to transfer weapons and material from Ukraine and Taiwan to Israel, but any casualties will not be Russian or Chinese. It bankrupts the Regime and allows Russia and China to become relatively stronger and more secure by keeping the Regime distracted in Iran. They also know that the Regime isn’t going to give up trying to destabilize and destroy BRICS, and can’t be trusted even if they offered a peace deal.
source: https://nypost.com/2025/07/03/world-news/china-cannot-allow-russia-to-lose-ukraine-war-foreign-minister-tells-eu-report/

- This is all bad news for the Regime because it means that their “divide and conquer” strategy isn’t going to work. They also can’t get BRICS to agree to a ceasefire to play musical chairs with their weapons and material. BRICS wins by pressing against the Regime on multiple fronts simultaneously and forcing the Regime to bankrupt itself and run out of missiles. China just admitted the game plan, but it’s obvious that was the plan all along. But confirmation is nice.

- The best they can hope to accomplish against BRICS is to bribe and peel off countries like India, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. However, the only actual member of BRICS that the Regime has been able to influence is India. Turkey and Azerbaijan are not BRICS members, although they did indicate interest in joining. However, since both of these countries have geopolitically aligned with the Regime against Russia, they can probably kiss joining BRICS goodbye. Also, as I predicted last year, China and Russia are moving away from BRICS due to India’s bullshit and shifting to focusing on SCO and other BRICS-like organizations that aren’t tainted by India trying to sabotage development from within for the Regime. India has nobody to blame but itself. Nobody forced them to betray their neighbors and trading partners. Unlike Turkey, nobody NEEDS India. Turkey is lucky to be the geographic bridge between Asia and Europe, so it can play on both sides. India is neither geographically nor strategically vital. Sure, they have a large population, but that’s it. Africa has a large population too, and nobody gives a shit about Africa.
source: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-sco-boycott-pakistan-terror/2679097/

- So the bottom line is that the markets are going to go up no matter what. Bad news is good news, and good news is good news. We’ll have to see what happens in Gaza and if Israel was able to make a deal with Russia. We’ll know based on Israel’s behavior. If they get tough on Iran, it means they made some kind of deal with Russia and expect Iran to lose its support from Russia, but China has no incentive to let the Regime win and pick BRICS apart, but I REEEAAAALLY doubt Russia is going to make a deal. I think the Regime ruined its chances of making deals altogether when it launched that sneak attack against Iran the first time. You screwed the pooch with that move.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 3rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, with production falling, but inventories rising.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-as-US-Crude-Gasoline-Inventories-Rise.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dallas-Fed-Oilfield-Inflation-Surges-as-Shale-Activity-Contracts-in-Q2.html

- The market is still in a “bad news is good news” buying spree. Analysts are warning we’re heading for a stagflationary recession and that buying everything is deranged, but here we are.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/june-payrolls-preview-anything-below-60k-we-get-stagflationary-recession-growth-scare , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-derangement-syndromes

- Microsoft announced 9,000 layoffs, but they’re also importing 14,000 Indians, so are they really cutting jobs, or are they simply replacing American workers with cheaper Indians?
soruce: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microsoft-cut-9000-jobs-second-major-layoff-wave

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Natural Gas
o 6. Energy
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. The US Dollar
o Everything else was up.

- The market is positioning for the bad jobs numbers and stagflationary recession to cause the FED and the government to go into bailout mode and reinflate the bubble economy with tens of trillions of new printed money.

- The only geopolitical update not discussed on the show today is that Putin spoke with France’s Macron and defended Iran’s nuclear program. However, Israel is also reportedly in talks with Russia, presumably to try to get them to throw Iran under the bus (again). Israel making a deal with Russia is literally the ONLY way they win at this point because Russia threatening to provide Iran with nukes is what ended the war the first time. I imagine the Jews are willing to give Putin anything he wants in exchange for letting Israel destroy Iran, but Putin would be a fool to make any sort of deal with Israel. Not only would it allow the Regime to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat at BRIC’s expense and show Russia an untrustworthy ally, but the Regime is not trustworthy whatsoever, especially Israel.
source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-israel-in-talks-with-russia-about-de-escalation-in-syria-irans-nuclear-program/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-defends-irans-right-nuclear-enrichment-first-macron-phone-call-3-years

- The bottom line is that we’ll have to see how these talks between Israel and Russia go because that will likely determine Israel’s next move involving Iran. The markets are a joke, but Trump has been signaling that he will prop the markets up, so you can’t really blame the normies for following the lead of the government when they’ve been manipulating the market to all-time highs for the last few years.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 1st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The US is preparing for its next round of airstrikes against Iran, or at least pretending to. The issue is that there is no way the US can destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Russia has already indicated that Iran would be given nuclear warheads if the US went to war with them, so what is the plan? You already lost, and you have no leverage or path to victory. I know Israel is mad about losing, but you should have thought of that before you attacked Iran in the first place.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-un-envoy-makes-clear-nuclear-enrichment-will-never-stop , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939900397268693364

- There is evidence that Trump is going to pressure Israel to seek peace in Gaza, but it could be another feint. I don’t think Israel is stupid enough to go to war with Iran again so soon after losing the first time, but the Regime has a habit of starting wars they can’t win, so I wouldn’t rule it out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-pivots-pressuring-israel-new-ceasefire-deal-gaza

- Meanwhile, in the markets, the stock market hits new all time highs for absolutely no fucking reason. In fact, Apple just posted negative guidance and said that their AI projects were a failure, and their stock price went up. JP Morgan is predicting a wave of new all-time highs.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-expect-wave-new-all-time-high-jpmorgans-trading-desk-breaks-down-bull-and-bear-cases

- What’s going you ask? Trump is pressuring Jerome Powell to cut rates… and that’s it. The market is expecting pre-emptive rate cuts and bailouts BEFORE Q2 GDP is released and the recession begins. I’ve been saying this for a while, but the market is primed to expect immediate bailouts and for taxpayers to bail out their greed, which explains why even when the tech companies are laying people off and reporting failure, their stocks hit all-time highs. It’s because “bad news is good news” due to Trump going to crash the interest rate and bail them out as soon as the market looks shaky.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-trump-now-going-broke-and-pump-economy-boom-grow-our-way-out-debt , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-it-hits-new-record-high , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-buy-stocks-8th-straight-week-pile-financials-dump-energy

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Gold
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Financials
o 7. Bitcoin

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- As already mentioned, the economy is shit, but the market is taking Trump’s pressure on the FED to lower rates as a sign that a bailout is just around the corner, hence tech companies hitting all time highs while crypto gains in the midst of shitty fundamentals. People will look back on this period and wonder what the hell people were thinking, probably sooner rather than later.

- The bottom line is that we’re in another “calm before the storm” period. Is the war with Iran going to restart? Is Trump going to re-inflate the bubble and bail out Wall Street? Everyone knows something bad and stupid is going to happen soon, but they’re betting on the government bailing them out. We live in the fakest, gayest, and most retarded of times.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 30th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The Israeli false flags may be occurring. Today, arsonists lit a brush fire in Idaho and set up an ambush to kill firefighters. Why firefighters? Why Idaho? Who can say? Maybe killing people in the city won’t motivate the political right, so they went after firefighters in Idaho. Also, a black Amazon van blew up in Washington, DC.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/everyones-been-shot-here-arsonists-set-wildfire-northern-idaho-open-fire-firefighters , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939405692236161052

- Israel is fighting back against all the Palestinian support on the Left by using gay pride parades to promote “Free Iran”.
source: https://x.com/therealmrbench/status/1939416167070011408

- Iran has begun cleaning the entrance of their damaged nuclear facilities and removing the IAEA cameras.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938955163747668272 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938922869603659786 , https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1939022178441122139

- Iran has also rejected the resumption of talks with the US. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran again, and Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. So much for the ceasefire. Hence, the false flags already mentioned.
source: https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1938647727526596654 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938642543622713636 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-denies-any-meeting-us-next-week-rejects-iaea-inspectors

- Attention is starting to shift back to Russia and China, with more false articles that China’s economy is collapsing and threats of 500% tariffs against BRICS.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-economy-spirals-no-end-sight-says-kyle-bass , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/deadly-russian-drones-strikes-have-increased-ukraines-odesa , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-theft-300bn-frozen-assets-price-worth-paying-break-wests-grip-global-finance , https://responsiblestatecraft.org/congress-sanctions-russia/

- In the markets, it’s doubtful that next week will be positive with renewed attention on Iran and talk of renewed fighting, along with false flags and terrorist attacks. However, I expect the normies to follow the headlines. If the headlines downplay the false flags and the prospect of a renewed war with Iran, then the markets will be positive. If Trump talks tough about bombing Iran again, or if there are more strikes, I expect the market to reverse.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-taking-over-fundamentals-goldman-trader-says-macro-noise-about-bite-again , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/only-america-would-so-much-capital-be-deployed-so-many-risks-and-unknowns

- The bottom line is that Israel is doing all it can to drag the US into a war with Iran despite the threat of BRICS providing Iran with nuclear warheads. Trump seems to be coming around and threatening Iran again, and Iran walking away from peace talks is a telling sign. I guess Tel Aviv didn’t learn its lesson the first time. Nothing has changed, so what is Israel going to do differently this time?
source: https://x.com/DI313_/status/1939204184143708324 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939152163931824420 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939269308041036283

Sorry the MMM is late, GSB was down last night.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 27th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.
- Today was a slow day after all the drama over the last few days, which is to be expected after a big Pay-Per-View event like Summerslam. Now that the Pay-Per-View is over, things are going to be slow for a while, especially since the US/Israel were the aggressors and BRICS doesn’t want any of these wars. If the US/Israel take some time off to recover, nothing happens, simple as.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-claims-victory-over-israel-which-almost-collapsed-1st-public-appearance

- The US and Iran are meeting next week, with Trump supposedly willing to make a deal to end sanctions. Again, as I explained yesterday, does this situation look like the US and Israel won? Pay attention to what people do, not what they say.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-meeting-iran-next-week-trump-says-while-suggesting-nuclear-deal-no-longer-necessary , https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-signals-us-may-ease-iran-oil-sanction-enforcement-help-rebuild-country-2025-06-25/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hoping-comprehensive-peace-agreement-iran-witkoff

- There are no updates regarding Ukraine and Russia since there is currently a NATO summit going on, with the only update being that Ukraine will NEVER be allowed into NATO.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-not-nato-my-job-keep-it-way-orban-tells-press-outside-nato-summit

- Hopefully, we’ll see ACTUAL peace talks with BRICS going forward, and we can finally rest easy knowing that WW3 isn’t going to happen and the Regime is taking an overdue L for once. The key test will be Gaza. If Gaza gets resolved in the next few weeks, we’ll know that it’s OVER over, and the Regime is accepting the loss. If there are no new peace breakthroughs then it’s likely the Regime is biding their time trying to come up with a new plan and we’ll likely see some more bullshit in the coming months. We’ll see.

- Now that the last Metroid is destroyed and the galaxy is at peace, let’s turn back to the markets as we slowly approach recession and a market crash:

- Energy is largely flat, with crude oil settling slightly higher and natural gas settling lower.

- Tech stocks hit new all-time highs as money poured back into Wall Street, which was briefly diversified for WW3. Analysts are warning that the stock market isn’t pricing in the weak job market and looming recession risks. Wall Street is positioning to expect bailouts in the event of a recession, but a lot of analysts are warning that the markets are wrong. Also, Q1 GDP was quietly revised downward “unexpectedly”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-being-given-warning-they-shouldnt-ignore , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/get-fearful-when-stock-market-gets-greedy , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q1-gdp-revised-lower-personal-spending-unexpectedly-prints-weakest-covid , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-futures-jump-set-new-record-high-vix-dollar-tumble

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Energy
o 3. Communication Technology
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. The VIX
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Gold
o 7. Real-Estate

- The market is pricing in more growth and inflation, not a recession, which means they expect bailouts and for Trump to keep the bubble going even as these tech companies (which are sitting at all-time highs) are laying people off left and right due to sluggish sales and negative consumer sentiment. Absolute madness.

- The bottom line is that while we avoided WW3, we’re still heading for a recession unless the government lies, but since we’re not at war, they do need to rip the band-aid off and let the market correct. However, we’ll know more throughout July as the “smart money” either buys or panics and sells once the government data is leaked to them. That’s the next shoe to drop. I’m now still open-minded about what Trump will do, but if we had moved forward with the war with Iran, we would be going into money printing and bailout mode, but since we dodged that hypersonic missile, we’ll have to see what happens.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 26th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big development of the day is that the Regime has settled on the fact that the war with Iran is over and has magically changed its tune regarding whether Iran’s nuclear site was destroyed or not. Despite the Pentagon, Mossad, and your own eyes and common sense telling you that the strike against Iran was unsuccessful, suddenly and unexpectedly, Israel and the CIA now confirm that Iran’s nuclear program was indeed destroyed. How? Why? What? It’s simple, the Regime has no choice. If Iran’s nuclear program WASN’T destroyed and the US and Israel failed, that would be the worst possible outcome for the Regime, so Iran’s nuclear program NEEDS to be destroyed so that the US and Israel aren’t embarrassed. Previously, Israel was likely hoping that by exposing Trump’s lie that Iran’s nuclear sites were destroyed, it could force the US to make a real strike against Iran and finish their desired “Regime Change” program, but Trump didn’t play along. Now that Israel and the CIA are agreeing with Trump and doing a 180, Israel can at least live to fight another day. The kayfabe is officially complete. I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacle. See you next Summer Slam!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-agrees-trump-says-systemic-destruction-irans-nuclear-capability

- What about Iran? They have no desire to go to war against the United States and will likely play along. Also, they are no longer cooperating with the IAEA, so there won’t be any Western verification of Iran’s nuclear program any longer. Many are openly questioning the credibility of the IAEA because Iran was acting fully within its rights and allowing inspections of its nuclear program, and they still got attacked and baited into a war that compliance with the IAEA was supposed to avoid. Iran is free to continue its nuclear program now as long as it plays along with Trump’s face-saving measure.
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-parliament-approves-bill-suspend-cooperation-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-2025-06-25/

- You may be beginning to doubt your own eyes and questioning your judgment in the face of coordinated gaslighting, so how do we know Trump is lying? The tell is the complete lack of a meltdown or any radioactive event whatsoever in Iran. Think about it for 5 seconds. If the US “obliterated” a nuclear facility and destroyed all that heavily enriched uranium, wouldn’t there be a meltdown and a radioactive contamination zone? Iran claims they moved the Uranium days ago, but if Iran still has the Uranium, then the US/Israel failed, so now suddenly Iran DIDN’T move the Uranium and it was destroyed, but didn’t cause ANY radioactive fallout or event whatsoever. It’s magical uranium.
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/dotcom-temp/vi-AA1Hggt0?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

- There are also Zionist sources I Israel and even Muslim sources denying Trump’s claim, but most official sources are falling in line because to admit that the US and Israel failed and gave up is to admit defeat to Iran. Again, Iran will play along with the Trump narrative and just keep their nuclear program secret going forward. It’s also unlikely that Israel will fuck with them again, which is the true test. Always watch what people DO rather than what they say.
source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/25/us-didnt-destroy-irans-nuclear-programme-heres-what-new-intel-says , https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkzmfbfngg , https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

- Another telling development is Gaza. Remember that what caused Israel to target Iran and provoke a war was Iran’s support of “the Axis of Resistance” due to Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians. If the Regime defeated Iran, then one would expect the Palestinians (as well as other resistance movements) to be abandoned. If Iran defeated the US and Israel, then one would expect to see momentum in Gaza shift towards the Palestinians as Israel abandons its plan to expand its territory and establish “Greater Israel” in the face of a defeat by Iran. Watch how the tone of the Gaza situation changes and resolves in the coming weeks for final proof of Iran’s victory. The New York Times is claiming that because Israel defeated Iran that they can agree to a truce in Gaza without looking weak. Do you see? DO YOU SEE?
source: https://www.dw.com/en/trump-says-great-progress-made-on-gaza-ceasefire-talks/live-73028690 , https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-iran-war-latest-06-25-2025-a18dbde29c3e564063fd0d9a9e84d0c1 , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html

- I predict that as the Regime digests their failed war against BRICS that you’re going to see many “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months as the Regime does the only sensible thing, which is to stop the wars and learn to get along. Freedom only exists in the tension between equals, if you’ll remember.

- Returning to the markets, World War 3 being cancelled is bearish for energy and military stocks, and bullish for tech stocks, only because everyone was shorting tech stocks in the face of a major war, but that doesn’t mean tech is a good investment. Even UBS is saying that the short squeeze rally has gone too far and it’s time to sell.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/nato-nasdaq-big-tech-defence-out , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-prop-short-squeeze-rally-has-gone-too-far-time-start-selling

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Information Technology
o 3. Crypto
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Gold
o 6. Bonds
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Consumer Staples
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Materials

- The market is currently swinging back from WW3 panic, so don’t take the movement today too seriously. Over the next week or two, the markets will settle back into their normal ebb and flow until we approach the Q2 GDP reveal and enter recession in August. BTW, the tariffs should be going back into effect soon, as Trump hasn’t announced any further delays or extensions, and no new trade deals have been reached. Also, Canada is openly talking about cutting trade with the US and focusing on trading with the EU, so that doesn’t bode well for these trade talks. The tariffs should seal the deal on the recession unless the government blatantly cooks the data.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/world/europe/canada-eu-security-defense-trump.html

- The bottom line is that with the War on BRICS effectively over, the last open question is what is Trump going to do when we enter recession? Since we won’t be at war, it’s the perfect opportunity to actually allow the recession to do its necessary function and purge the system of malinvestment and allow prices on stocks and homes to come back down to Earth. However, Trump also has a history of manipulating the markets to hook up his Wall Street buddies, so who knows? However, regardless of whether we go into a vanilla recession or a stagflationary depression, the worst is truly behind us with the threat of WW3 ended. We’ll see if I’m right about the “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months, but I predict peace will break out now that the US and Israel aren’t going to be provoking any more wars.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 24th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The propaganda was thick today, so allow me to break the gaslighting and tell you what’s happening:

- Firstly, I was right… sort of. I was right about the kayfabe, but I was wrong about the details of the kayfabe. I thought there would be a “grand bargain” where Trump gets Iran to give up its nukes (that don’t exist) in exchange for a peace deal with Israel. I didn’t count on a fake and gay attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that did nothing, followed by a fake and gay attack on an American military base in Qatar, and then the announcement of a ceasefire. In the end it’s the same thing, and it would have been better if they did what I thought they were going to do because it’s obvious to anyone with eyes that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not destroyed and Trump is lying, so a “grand bargain” deal would have been far better than this fake gay shit.

- The Regime is flailing because they actually thought that the B2s and bunker busters would actually destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump bet big on that strike being successful and lost very similarly to how Israel bet big on their decapitation strike against Iran and lost. When will they stop underestimating BRICS nations? Anyway, what happened to all that “Regime Change” rhetoric from yesterday? It’s all been memory holed hasn’t it? It’s because of Medvedev’s tweet that Iran could be given nuclear warheads by other nations. That ended the Regime’s plans instantly and brought about the current “ceasefire” in less than 24 hours. Ironically, this simply proves that nuclear weapons are required and are the only defense against the Regime. Sad but true.

- Iran is denying that they agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, but there were reports that Iran has considered the strike on the American base in Qatar enough to consider their beef with America settled since the strike on their nuclear facilities didn’t do anything anyway. Perhaps Trump thought that Iran was including Israel as well, or maybe Trump is just talking shit. Why even knows any longer? At least the Strait of Hormuz isn’t being closed any longer, so maybe the government doesn’t have to manipulate the price.

- So the current geopolitical picture is a bit mercurial at the moment because Trump and Israel are having to rapidly change their plans for Regime Change in Iran due to Russia not only NOT throwing Iran under the bus, but openly talking of giving them nuclear warheads. A ceasefire (which Israel will inevitably violate) is the best possible scenario for the Regime at this point, but I don’t believe Iran is done bombing Israel yet. In fact, they have less than weeks’ worth of air defense missiles left, so they should keep up the pressure just like Russia is doing in Ukraine.

- However, as previously said, it’s clear that Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the US, so other than the attack on the one Qatar US base (which they told the US ahead of time they would strike while giving them time to evacuate) I doubt Iran will do anything else, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t about Iran being weak, but was done in coordination with their BRICS allies. Remember that BRICS doesn’t want WW3, and simply wants to stop the Regime’s war machine, which is why the current tactic is to exhaust their air defense supplies. They don’t want a slaughter that will cause a nuclear exchange, just to exhaust the Regime economically and militarily so they’ll collapse like the USSR.

- Since the Regime Change rhetoric has been memory holed and now everyone is hailing Trump’s brilliance for this non-existent ceasefire, there may not be a false flag. The purpose of the false flag was to gin up support for the war, but if Russia is going to give Iran nukes and the war is cancelled, there’s no point in launching a terrorist attack in the first place. It’s kind of hilarious to see Trump try to maintain this image as a brilliant deal maker and world leader in the face of his string of embarrassing defeats, but Trump has charisma, so at least there’s that.

- Shifting to the markets, the energy markets crashed on the news that a ceasefire was reached (which Iran denies, but shhhhh), with crude oil falling 7% and natural gas falling over 4%. Earlier today, Trump tweeted about keeping oil prices low, so the ceasefire announcement may have been related directly to this issue.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Orders-Oil-Sector-to-Keep-Prices-Low-After-Strikes-on-Iran.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sentiment-lifted-and-crude-craters-iran-delivers-symbolic-strike-empty-us-bases-newsquawk

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Real-Estate
o 3. Consumer Staples
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. The VIX
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Crypto

- The market moves based on what the TV says, not what’s true, so currently the market is moving based on the assumption that Trump destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities and they’re begging for a ceasefire with Israel because Trump played 4D chess or something. If the narrative changes tomorrow or if the realities of the battlefield contradict the propaganda, I expect the normies to panic again, but for now, they’re blissfully optimistic that Trump saved the day and Iran has surrendered.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-press-secretary-hints-iran-regime-change-claims-intel-said-weeks-nuclear

- The bottom line is that the Regime is losing strategically and its airstrikes are ineffective, but thankfully for the world, BRICS doesn’t want WW3 and is willing to de-escalate since time is on their side, and the more defeats the Regime is handed, the quicker de-dollarization momentum builds and the Regime falls once and for all. Nuclear war is the only way BRICS loses (not that the Regime wins, it’s a tie when you think about it). The challenge for the Regime is to spin their strategic defeats as victories using propaganda and gaslighting, but that’s better than using false flags and terrorism to try to overthrow the Iranian government, so it’s a win. BRICS doesn’t need to win the propaganda war (especially in the West) as long as it wins the actual war on the battlefield

- So while some may say that “nothing ever happens” because WW3 didn’t break out and we didn’t nuke each other, that’s not true. BRICS won by forcing the Regime to abandon its plans for war with Iran in less than 24 hours and pivot to this ceasefire narrative. The Regime takes another L, and since we won’t be at war, maybe we won’t “money printer go brrrrr” in a couple of months when we enter recession officially and the market crashes. We’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 23rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The strike on Iran was a complete failure as I expected. Satellite imagery of the site showed only superficial damage and absolutely no indication that the site was even damaged beyond the surface-level entrance. Analysts were speculating that Trump told Iran the strike was coming and the strike was intentionally weak to give Israel and Iran an “off-ramp” to de-escalate similar to what happened with the Houthis. Trump would talk shit and claim he won, Iran plays along, and the war ends with the US and Israel claiming victory but not doing anything. However, Iran decided not to play along after the Defense Minister flew to Moscow and met with the Russians.
source: https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1936731483252691139 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936866883094851981 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936776086903554379 , https://x.com/realstewpeters/status/1936934812457279667

- Iran is in the process of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but oil futures only spiked for less than 30 minutes when the market opened before crashing which reeks of market manipulation. If you needed a reminder as to why the futures market is broken, there it is.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936782901380526427 , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1936922839749370340 , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1936907642535891148 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936827512509612129

- The Regime expects Iran to de-escalate similar to the Houthis (which is over too BTW) and is trying to double down and get Iran to cuck. The UK’s PM is saying that if Iran attacks the US bases NATO will go to war with Iran.
source: https://news.sky.com/story/an-iranian-attack-on-us-military-bases-could-draw-the-uk-into-the-conflict-13387191 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936758045943697682

- Dimitry Medvedev has stated that there are “a number of countries” ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads. As I previously said, Israel is the hill the Regime will die on, and they’ve already moved more air defenses and radars into Israel to replace that which was lost. Using Iran to concentrate and deplete the Regime’s military resources is the smartest move Russia and China could possibly make, and it’s a no-brainer.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936743471689175344 , https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1936731483252691139

- If you’re wondering what the next move by the Regime is, it’s “Iranian Sleeper cells” (i.e. an Israeli false flag to get Americans on board with WW3). I guess they thought Iran would cuck and it wouldn’t be necessary, but be careful out there.
source: https://x.com/JOKAQARMY1/status/1936749621361197553

- I’ve said this concerning Ukraine, but since this involves Israel, it’s even more true, the Regime wants its war sooner rather than later because time isn’t on their side. BRICS wants to run out the clock and win by default, and the Regime isn’t going to let that happen. They thought Russia was the weak link in BRICS and lost in Ukraine, so they’ve pivoted to Iran as the weak link. Iran has to win on the battlefield. There won’t be any actual negotiations or peace. Any meetings or overtures of peace will simply be a rouse meant to launch more attacks against Iran. Iran understands this. Russia understands this. China understands this.

- BRICS will leverage the UN and other international bodies to build the case for the moral and legal legitimacy of multipolarity over the Regime. While this doesn’t seem as important as victory on the battlefield, this is important to establish the new multipolar model of the world going forward once the dust settles. Israel has already been convicted of war crimes, and America has violated several themselves by attacking Iran unprovoked for their peaceful nuclear program which was within the bounds of and inspected by relevant international bodies like the IAEA. This is “the long game”, the overthrowing of the “Boomer Truth” of WW2 into a new founding myth.
source: https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1936731425245450383 , https://x.com/upholdreality/status/1936949338581905658

- As previously mentioned, oil jumped when the markets opened due to the very obvious threat of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, but crashed within 30 minutes as if nothing was happening. Fake and gay. The whole market is just a rigged casino and we’re heading straight for a Stagflationary depression because of it.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Impact-After-US-Attacks-Iran-Facilities.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Rises-3-After-US-Bombs-Iranian-Nuclear-Sites.html

- Bitcoin fell below $100,000 after the attack on Iran, but it too has recovered over a single day, so I guess everything is fine, and starting a war with Iran will have absolutely no negative consequences whatsoever. The Straight of Hormuz being closed means nothing. I’m unsure if the market is confident that Iran will cuck and tensions will escalate because that was the original plan and the government insiders are acting on expired orders or if the market is just being manipulated. I can see why the oil market could be manipulated, but not Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn’t matter so it’s not worth the government’s effort to manipulate it. Very strange.
source: https://decrypt.co/326424/bitcoin-rebounds-markets-price-short-lived-iran-conflict

- The bottom line is that the current paradigm is that Trump destroyed the Iranian nuclear sites and Iran is returning to eh negotiating table in defeat when the reality is the complete opposite. I guess propaganda is effective and we’ll have to wait for the facts on the ground to pierce through the propaganda similar to Ukraine before the normies begin noticing. I frankly don’t know how long this will last, but that largely depends on what Iran and Russia do. I don’t expect China to get directly involved at this stage.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 20th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Today was “Juneteenth” which is a made-up black holiday like Kwanza, but the markets were closed. However, since I didn’t give you guys a newsletter yesterday because some retard ran his car into my neighborhood’s internet junction box, I’ll give you that newsletter now that my internet has been restored.

- The markets were positive today because Trump announced a 2-week pause on the War with Iran. In other news, the tariffs suspension is about to expire and the only trade deal that has been reached is with the UK, so expect another “extension”. Trump talks a lot of shit, but he is clearly afraid to cause the market to crash and always cucks out. In fact, in case you didn’t know, Trump has been called TACO Trump which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, which is an apt label.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/missile-causes-extensive-damage-israeli-hospital-idf-bombs-inactive-iranian-heavy , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/friday-brings-biggest-june-options-expiration-ever-0-dte-volumes-hit-record-high

- The Zionists and neocons are trying to “sell” the war to MAGA while the Left has already reorganized from their “no kings” nonsense to marching for peace and supporting Iran. The Zionists/Neocons are acting like these protests are fake because they happened too suddenly, but they’re the same protestors who were supporting Gaza last week, so they were already primed to be against Israel. It doesn’t take a huge AstroTurf campaign to turn pro-Palestinian protestors into pro-Iranian protestors when Israel is the aggressor in both cases.

- Trump’s delay of the War with Iran caused a short squeeze at optioned expired which forced all the normies shorting stocks to buy stocks to close out their contracts and lose money. Don’t you just love the rigged casino? However, energy prices aren’t budging and Iran is talking about closing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has no way to stop Iran from causing a global energy crisis if they choose to. His threats mean nothing to Iran, but Trump won’t stop Israel because it’s now or never.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Inch-Higher-as-Trump-Social-Media-Tirade-Fuels-Speculation.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Jump-But-Middle-East-Oil-Keeps-Flowing-Uninterrupted.html , https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-Threatens-To-Leave-Nuclear-Treaty-and-Close-Strait-of-Hormuz.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-or-die-dominates-shorts-smoked-europe-starts-crack , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/only-16-americans-19-trump-voters-want-us-join-israels-war-iran

- Russia has come out in support of Iran (obviously) and warned the US not to get involved or there will be “unpredictable negative consequences”, but this is only the public-facing remarks. Behind the scenes, I’m sure there is no dialogue coming from Russia. Putin admitted in a recent interview that he’s talked to both Trump and Netanyahu. If you listen to what he’s saying and read slightly in between the lines he’s telling Trump and Netanyahu that regime change in Iran is impossible and they need to stop and initiate a ceasefire and a peaceful off-ramp. However, Israel and the US just used peace negotiations as a subterfuge to launch an unprovoked sneak attack on Iran and openly bragged about it until Iran started bombing Tel Aviv.
source: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/GWvZIlYVRo0 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-warns-against-us-intervention-iran-tells-israeli-leaders-come-your-senses

- So the bottom line is that Trump is trying to hold the markets up as he figures out how to move forward after Israel underestimated Iran and burned all diplomatic bridges. The only tool I see the Regime using at this point is a false flag. I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened. They have no options other than to admit defeat, but the market will crash either way. We’re just watching the Regime slowly realize they’ve been checkmated. Maybe they’ll go with the Samson Option and maybe not. It doesn’t matter.

- Since Israel is losing they need to seek a ceasefire, but after the stunt Israel pulled, they don’t deserve one, The UN Security Council may have to be utilized since America and Israel can’t be trusted to abide by their agreements whatsoever.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 17th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I’m not going to bury the lead. I believe that the final phase of the Regime’s plan to bring the world to nuclear war in order to get Russia and China to cuck and let the Regime win is playing out right now. Originally Israel was going to nuke Iran, but Pakistan said that they will nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran, so the US is now threatening to nuke Iran instead, which brings Russia and China into the conflict. I don’t know what’s being said behind closed doors, but the Regime is out of options, and the good news is that BRICS doesn’t want nuclear war. Today Iran only launched 5 missiles. Some people are claiming that Iran is out of missiles, but that’s nonsense. Iran is very likely in very important talks with its partners about how to proceed as the world could literally be destroyed because of Jews.

- It also appears the false flag or assassination of Trump may be off since everyone is talking about it and expecting it. The more likely scenario is that the USS Nimitz is being moved to the Persian Gulf. This aircraft carrier is 50 years old and scheduled to be decommissioned next year, so it’s the optimal target to use as a false flag against Iran. However, if Trump wasn’t dutifully doing Israel’s bidding, I have no doubt they would assassinate him as well.

- Related to the Nimitz, it will arrive on the 18th, which is just after options expire for June. Today the Wall Street Journal flat out lied and published articles about how Iran is scared and begging to make a deal to prop the markets up so that the “smart money “ (i.e. politically connected insiders) could get out of the market, which is also why the false flag will happen on the 18th or after which allows the insiders to avoid taking losses when the market crashes.

- You’ll notice that I’m not posting a lot of links and sources, and that’s because this is mostly based on breaking news tweets found on social media, and my own analysis and thought process linking bread-crumbs. This is what I believe is happening in real time, and we’ll know by the end of the week how this all ends. However, don’t be discouraged, the Regime cannot win regardless (unless Russia and China cuck, which they won’t). In a worst-case scenario, we have a nuclear war and we all die, but that’s not the Regime winning, it’s more of a “tie” if you think about it because they’ll die too.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-inflicts-more-punishment-claims-new-method-caused-idf-systems-target-each-other , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zh-geopolitical-week-ahead-no-going-back-hellish-night-ahead-iran-israel , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-bid-across-board-monday-notable-outperformance-nasdaq-newsquawk-asia-pac . https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/ww3-ww3-stocks-oil-gold-crypto-swing-wildly-mideast-headline-roulette

- As previously mentioned, the Wall Street Journal lied about Iran begging for peace in order to prop up the markets, so the markets did pretty well today all things considered, but it’s only because the insiders need time to unwind their positions before the crash.
source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-battered-iran-signals-it-wants-to-de-escalate-hostilities-with-israel-and-negotiate-9feab4ae

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Communications Technology
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Gold
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Healthcare

- The market is being overtly manipulated in order to help the rich political insiders time to sell. The Regime grossly underestimated Iran (just like they underestimated Russia and China), and now they’re panicking and just overtly lying and manipulating the markets to protect themselves. The good news is that this situation should be resolved this week.

- My prediction is that Iran will agree to a ceasefire with Israel and tensions will cool, but this won’t be a victory for the Regime, and they will have to play their strongest card (i.e. threatening nuclear war) simply to pull Israel’s ass out of the fire they lit themselves. This is a desperate move of a weakened empire that keeps overestimating themselves and underestimating their opponents. The world will notice that Russia defeated NATO, the Houthis defeated the US, and Iran defeated Israel. There will be no coming back from this, and this is the BEST CASE SCENARIO possible for the Regime. The best outcome they can accomplish is to take a permanent and major hit to their international reputation simply to bail Israel out of the consequences of their own actions.

- The worst case scenario is that Russia and China cuck, but that simply won’t happen. There was a time where I was on the fence about what Russia and China would do, but based on how Russia and China have conducted themselves in recently months, I have no doubt that Russia and China will not cuck, Trump will. Trump will fold because he doesn’t actually want a war, but Israel REAAAAAALLLLY fucked up by attacking Iran, and Trump needs to save them. I’m watching events unfold closely and will keep you updated.

- The bottom line is that the Regime is dying, and they’re playing their final Trump card (get it? Trump card!) but they’ve already lost and the game is already over. It’s worth noting again that BRICS never wanted a war, only the US and Israel are warmongering because they know time isn’t on their side, so peace equals defeat for the Regime because the US and Israel will only be weaker going forward from here. We’re still heading straight for a recession, but if Trump actually starts a war, we’ll fall off a cliff.

- On a final note, I can’t see the future, I can only speculate based on what I perceive to be the smartest path forward. There is a chance that Trump goes to war with Iran on behalf of Israel and loses everything, but I don’t see that happening. The Regime aren’t going to get themselves nuked because they won’t be able to enjoy all the money they’ve stolen if they’re dead.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 16th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Lots of updates, we’ve officially left the “nothing ever happens” era:

- Since Iran’s air defenses have been restored, Israeli air strikes have ended and Israel will not enter Iranian air space and is forced to launch missiles form Iraqi airspace and rely on terrorist tactics from within Iran using sleeper agents (mostly drones, sabotage and car bombs). Needless to say, this isn’t enough to bring down the Iranian government, and Iran is already ferreting out the terrorist cells, and estimate they’ve eliminated 80% of the terrorist cells already. Israel has no other cards to play other than “the Samson Option” to threaten Iran.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934390630593028382 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934365587263623563 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934356544155537533 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934269154657505412 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934249591207059765

- Iran is launching another wave of missiles right now and they’re getting through despite multiple countries helping Israel with their air defenses. Iran says they have enough missiles to bomb Israel every day for 6 months. Israel is begging for help at this point, but the only country that’s answered the call is France, big oof.
source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/france-president-emmanual-macron-says-iran-destabilised-region-france-will-defend-israel-8663029 , https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/Jun/14/iran-warns-us-uk-france-against-helping-stop-retaliatory-strikes-on-israel

- The UN conference on Palestinian statehood was cancelled due to Israel attacking Iran. Was this why Israel launched the attack when they did, to derail the conversation about the two-state solution? Boy did they leap out of the frying pan and into the fire with that move.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/14/world/middleeast/palestinian-statehood-conference-postponed-israel-iran.html

- Finally, as we await the inevitable terrorist attack by Israel to get the US into the war, Netanyahu is talking about an assassination plot by Iran to kill Trump. Would Israel really assassinate Trump? Actually, it makes more sense than you might think. Now that Trump used peace talks as a rouse to lure Iran into a false sense of security, nobody will ever trust Trump’s “diplomacy” again, but if Trump is removed and replaced with JD Vance, then maybe BRICS will give the US a second chance and allow the regime to play the same trick again. Trump has been a massive failure on all fronts anyway, so he’s outlived his usefulness. Israel assassinating him would allow Trump to serve one final purpose.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hints-possible-us-entry-war-amid-stepped-israeli-daytime-attacks-tehran , https://x.com/ExxAlerts/status/1934331564013629621

- Iran isn’t stupid and knows that the Regime will organize against them, but you’re not hearing much just like you’re not hearing much from Russia or China. Behind the scenes everyone knows that if countries start making public declarations that this can spiral out into WW3, which the Regime cannot win by their own admission. Again, I didn’t think that Israel would attack Iran because this exact thing would happen, and now Israel is “finding out”.
source: https://x.com/Kahlissee/status/1934351886779568476

- The Regime was defeated in Ukraine but it will die in Israel, figuratively and literally. The best part is that this will be a self-inflicted wound. Israel chose to attack Iran believing Iran to be weak just like NATO thought Russia was weak, and Trump thought China was economically weak when he launched his trade war. Their hubris and stupidity has led them to their own demise.

- The markets are going to crash tomorrow unless Trump and the Regime throw Israel under the bus and make peace with BRICS, which we all know they will NEVER do. Iran hasn’t committed to closing the Strait of Hormuz yet, but is reserving that as a threat to give the Regime second-thoughts about escalation. If Iran closes the Strait, you’ll see $100 oil and $7 gasoline within a week and the markets will crash. According to Polymarket, there is currently a 34% chance Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, but the number was 40% yesterday when Israel was “winning”. Now that Iran has the advantage, the odds of a global energy crisis are falling, but that’s the rub. The Regime can’t win because if Iran is threatened, they’ll cause a global financial crisis, but they’re already in too deep, and because we’re talking about Israel, the Regime will have their back 200%.
source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/israel-iran-conflict-why-tehran-wont-block-the-hormuz-strait.html , https://www.yahoo.com/news/could-iran-carry-threat-shut-230354895.html , https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-2025 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-and-gold-jump-israel-targets-iranian-energy-infrastructure

- So the Regime can downplay Israel losing the war they started with Iran in order to keep the markets calm, or they can beat the drums of war and watch energy prices skyrocket and the markets crash. Either way, they lose. They’re checkmated and cannot win. This is why I thought Trump would cut a deal and reset everything with Israel, because it was the smart move. Now they’re in too deep and they’re fucked no matter what they do.

- The bottom line is that the next shoe to drop is the terrorist attack and possible assassination of Trump by ((Iran)) in order to get the US to go to war for Israel, which won’t work at this point, and Russia and China DO have Iran’s back. Israel jew’d too close to the sun this time. How far will they go? Are we looking at the fall of Weimar or the fall of Judea? Only time will tell.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 13th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.
- I was wrong, Israel decided to attack Iran and trigger a regional war despite the threat of Iranian nukes being fake and despite Iran having intelligence regarding Israel’s nuclear sites. I guess they realized Iran was outplaying them and they doubled down again rather than just stop. So now either one of two things happens:

o 1. Iran cucks and does nothing.
o 2. Iran keeps their word and all hell breaks loose.

- Iran didn’t respond to Israel’s aggression in the past because they were winning the diplomatic battle, but obviously, violence is the final arbiter. What is Iran going to do? Their nuclear sites aren’t going to be destroyed, but there are reports of Israel bombing apartment buildings to assassinate high-ranking government officials. The head of the IRGC was killed when his apartment was hit by an airstrike. At least the “we’ll see” phase is finally over. Now comes the fun.
source: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/explosions-heard-tehran-israel-defense-minister-says-israel/ , https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1933332055099580614

- Oil prices soared on the news that Israel attacked Iran because assuming Iran doesn’t cuck and does what it threatened to do, oil prices are going to $100 and the financial crisis is assured. Was destroying the economy for the sake of Israel always the plan? Maybe.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Soar-After-Israel-Attacks-Irans-Nuclear-Facilities.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/JP-Morgan-Oil-Could-Hit-130But-Were-Still-Calling-60.html

- Also, while the US is claiming that they have nothing to do with the attack on Iran, Israel is launching its attack from within Iraq (which is next to Iran) in coordination with the US, so Iran is fully within its rights to destroy the US bases throughout the Middle East. Will they? Who knows?
source: https://x.com/warintel4u/status/1933336376243569059

- The Israel attack happened after the markets closed, so during trading hours the markets edged up slightly based on the softer CPI from the other day, but expect that to be completely wiped out tomorrow when the markets open unless Iran cucks and does nothing because all their missiles are fake and Halsey was right.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-mostly-edged-following-softer-expected-ppi-data-newsquawk-asia-pac-market , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-close-session-highs-retail-euphoria-boils-over-short-squeeze-frenzy-ends

- No response from Russia or China regarding this attack, but both countries have too much invested in Iran to do nothing and let the US and Israel destroy it for nuclear weapons it never even had in the first place. Tomorrow is going to be interesting, and I’ll be waiting to see what the players do.

- The bottom line is that all hell is going to break loose and what this shows is that no matter what happens diplomatically and economically, the regime will only stop when they are defeated in a bloody war. I now fully expect bailouts and stagflation because we’re at war now, and we can’t afford to let the market crash and for home prices to fall. Print print print!

- The best thing that could happen is that Iran surprises the regime with their response which causes the regime to demand a ceasefire similar to what happened in Ukraine, but we’ll have to see what happens. Everyone thought Ukraine was winning until the failed counter-offensive, so the truth will be decided on the battlefield written in blood.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 12th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- First things first: Trump and Netanyahu are pretending that they’re going to attack Iran any minute now with Trump evacuating families and non-essential personnel from Middle Eastern bases, and Netanyahu warning that if Israel goes down, they’ll take the whole region down with them. I need to remind you that if Israel and the US were going to attack Iran, they would just do it and you wouldn’t hear about it until after the fact. This is obvious kayfabe bullshit. Will Iran play along and “make the call” to avert the war? It’s so stupid and gay.
source: https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1932995194288549919 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-brewing-us-prepares-departure-all-nonessential-staff-iraq-kuwait-bahrain-embassies

- Crude oil jumped from $64 to $67, but is already beginning to fall again.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WTI-Spikes-Nearly-5-as-US-Embassy-Prepares-Iraq-Evacuation.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Iran-Nuclear-Negotiations-Derail-Over-Scheduling-Clash.html

- The LA riots have been re-branded “Anti ICE protests” and they are now AVOIDING attacking government buildings and the police, and are now just blocking traffic and looting, so the riots are over, and they’re now basically like those global warming protestors that glue themselves to the road and shit like that. I don’t even think anyone was killed, so I’m very disappointed.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/abbott-deploys-national-guard-san-antonio-ahead-wednesday-night-ice-protest

- No updates regarding the new Chinese trade deal since yesterday.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/us-china-trade-deal-trump.html , https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gkmy26e2po

- Regarding Russia, another round of sanctions against Russia has gone into effect which will do nothing, but otherwise, no updates.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/10/world/europe-new-sanctions-russia-strength-intl

- Turning to the markets now, as I predicted, silver is being shorted to hell in the “2nd largest short in history” by the LBMA itself (i.e. the exchange). Again, since China isn’t buying silver, only gold, the government has the power to crash the silver price through naked shorting with infinite money, and then cancel the contracts and steal your money if they lose. You can’t win against the rigged casino unless you’re China and you ALSO have infinite money.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-11/lbma-silver-short-position-grew-2nd-largest-history , https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-11/feds-shady-gold-secrets-spark-audit-bill-reckoning-near

- Stocks were bearish today based on geopolitical fears despite the supposed new deal with China and the better-than-expected CPI. The markets will likely rally before the end of the week when Iran “makes the call” and war is averted at the last minute in the finale to WWE Summerslam 25, live on Pay-Per-View!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-declined-geopolitical-fears-overshadowed-softer-expected-cpi-data-newsquawk-asia

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Energy
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Bonds

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Materials
o 2. Consumer Discretionary
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Natural Gas
o 5. Real Estate
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. Consumer Staples

- I don’t expect the panic over a war with Iran to last more than a day or so. The markets will likely rally by the end of the week once the new trade deal with China is finalized.

- The bottom line is that I hope this is the end of the Iranian kayfabe. The regime has already lost, and we passed “pathetic” a few exits ago. I’m just annoyed at this point. The markets are still expecting rate cuts and bailouts, and we’re still a month or so away from Q2 GDP numbers and a recession, so nothing is happening despite appearances. Even the riots turned fake and gay. Everything is fake and gay now.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 10th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The LA riots continued. Trump brought in the National Guard and the Marines, but nobody has been shot with anything more than rubber bullets and tear gas so far. Disappointing.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/newsom-nightmare-ca-governor-faces-criminal-tax-evasion-warning-amid-la-riot-chaos

- Iran obtained damning intelligence on Israel’s nuclear weapons program, including the locations of their weapons. Iran has threatened to destroy these sites immediately if they’re attacked by Israel and to make the intelligence public regarding Israel’s illegal nuclear weapons. The result is that Trump and Netanyahu suddenly want to make a deal and are okay with Iran’s nuclear enrichment for civilian use all of a sudden. I was expecting some kayfabe bullshit with Iran. I wasn’t expecting Iran to BTFO of Israel and outplay them. Iran is offering to give up their non-existent nuclear weapons if Israel does.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-it-obtained-trove-documents-israels-secret-nuclear-program , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1932128840241029389 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1932120040528068990

- Russia is still bombing the shit out of Ukraine.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-launched-record-nearly-500-drones-overnight-attack-ukraine

- There is a “high stakes” meeting between the US and China in London soon regarding Trump trying to reignite the trade war, but this is a bad joke. Everything is falling apart for the regime. China hasn’t even done anything and they’ve already won.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-china-gear-high-stakes-meeting-london

- I wasn’t expecting anything besides the LA riots to happen this week, but I’m surprised. Iran was grossly underestimated by Israel, and Israel played themselves. Trump tried his “art of the deal” bullshit and bluff his way to victory, and he’s been destroyed on all fronts. Russia would have made a deal if Trump didn’t try to use Iran as a bargaining chip for Israel. Now he’s lost everything geopolitically. Maybe Trump will focus on dealing with America’s domestic problems now.

- In the markets, the rally has fizzled in stocks, but silver is gaining quickly. Previously silver was lagging behind gold because the gold rally was being driven by BRICS, primarily China, but since China doesn’t want silver, silver didn’t rally the way gold did. Now people are losing faith in the dollar and are diversifying away from it and into silver because it’s underappreciated compared to gold. However, I don’t expect the rally to last because the government can crash silver. When they tried that with gold, China would just buy more, but since China isn’t buying silver, the government could successfully crash silver to prop up the dollar, so be aware of the risk if you plan to trade the metals short term.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/will-gold-hit-4000-year-case-building , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-fx-diversification-and-dollar , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/may-payrolls-rise-139k-beating-estimates-report-shows-creeping-labor-market-weakness , https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/retailers-offer-goldman-consumer-reality-check-one-thing-remains-clear , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-rally-fizzles-momentum-slumps-apple-dumps-silver-oil-meltup-continues

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Crypto
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Brent Crude Oil
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Utilities
o 3. Financials
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Healthcare

- Why did Bitcoin rally? Aside from the rate cut hopes, the nation of Paraguay’s government announced on social media that they would begin accepting Bitcoin as legal tender, but it was likely a hack, it’s unclear. The government of Paraguay is investigating and cautions everyone to wait for an official announcement, so it might be legit and not a hack, but who knows?
source: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-price-blasts-higher-with-81m-in-shorts-burned-fed-cut-bets-hold-firm/ , https://cointelegraph.com/news/paraguay-president-santiago-pena-bitcoin-legal-tender. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/paraguay-presidents-x-account-likely-hacked-bitcoin-scheme-2025-06-09/

- So the bottom line is that aside from Iran outplaying Israel in geopolitical chess, not much new happened. I wouldn’t pay any attention to the markets right now. Also, again, I wouldn’t chase the silver rally because it isn’t backed by China and the government could crash it easily as they have in the past. The Paraguay Bitcoin thing is interesting because the government didn’t immediately deny it, but it changes nothing even if it’s true. However, it’s your money, go chase that dragon if you want.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 9th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- As the commodities markets reopen, energy is flat. There really isn’t anything in the news worth mentioning either.

- I’m seeing a lot of articles about the debt and the bond market over the weekend, which could mean a bear market during the upcoming week. Let’s check to see how Bitcoin did on Sunday. Bitcoin FELL over Sunday, but just barely, so the market will likely be flat or down slightly. There honestly doesn’t appear to be anything going on.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-radical-fix-eliminate-debt-unfortunately-it-will-never-work , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-only-thing-really-matters-america-find-way-grow-out-these-stunning-deficits , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dollar-has-decoupled-treasury-yields-best-way-trade-it

- In geopolitics, Russia has expanded their offensive and has now invaded a new region of Ukraine for the first time. Trump is also backing down from the threat of expanded sanctions against Russia because they won’t fucking do anything anyway except make energy more expensive in Europe. However, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that NATO is actually going to end the war any time soon, merely try to lose slower.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-expands-ground-war-ukraines-dnipropetrovsk-region-first-time , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-urges-senator-graham-weaken-russian-sanctions-bill , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/globalists-go-radio-silent-nato-flirts-world-war-iii

- Nothing else to report. There is stuff going on, but it’s not significant. Israel and Iran are in a stalemate, and I’m still expecting a terrorist attack soon, but with the LA riots going on, maybe the regime will delay the terrorism for a while. In case you’re curious, I’m fine. I don’t live anywhere near the city for this precise reason.

- So the bottom line is that this week might be uneventful as far as finance and geopolitics are concerned, especially since the LA Riots are likely to take over the news cycle and the regime is likely to postpone any scheduled psyops until the riots play out. If anything happens next week I’ll be very surprised.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 6th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big news today is that Trump and Elon Musk had a fight and are no longer friends, and it was the talk of the town on social media. I’m going to stake my claim that this is fake and gay. Remember a few weeks ago when Trump pretended to be fighting with Netanyahu to secure the release of an American-Israeli dual citizen from Hamas, and then betrayed them as soon as he secured the hostage’s release? That’s what’s going on here. Either this is part of a larger plan, or could simply be that Elon Musk has left the Trump administration already, but working with Trump has damaged the brand image of himself and Tesla, and having a public spat and a falling out allowed Elon Musk to be distanced from Trump so Leftists will stop vandalizing Tesla dealerships.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/im-very-disappointed-elon-trump-responds-musk-opposition-big-beautiful-bill , https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/whoa-steve-bannon-unloads-elon-musk-president-trump/ , https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/wth-elon-musk-announces-spacex-will-decommission-dragon/

- Energy was flat today, but the markets closed negative due to the Trump-Elon fighting because the tech bros are worried that if Trump isn’t BFFs with Elon anymore then they may not get a bailout when the recession hits as expected. Ironically, the markets were up before the Trump and Elon feud with Goldman Sachs declaring a Summer bull market.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-finished-red-amid-escalation-trump-musk-public-spat-newsquawk-asia-pac-market , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/summer-euphoria-goldman-flows-gurus-give-greenlight-equity-bulls , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-continue-dominate-market-here-what-theyre-buying-and-selling

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Agriculture Commodities
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Bonds
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Consumer Discretionary
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Natural Gas
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Gold
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- It’s telling that the markets were up, but the second investors saw a falling out between Trump and Elon and questioned whether Wall Street could count on a bailout, they suddenly ran to commodities and away from crypto. It proves what’s holding up the market at this point.
- In geopolitics, Russia is continuing its offensive against Ukraine, but hasn’t launched any major retaliatory or escalatory strikes, so nothing is happening despite the explosions in Kiev.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-negotiations-terrorists-well-retaliate-time-our-choosing-kremlin , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-takes-swipe-trump-calling-putin-russia-giving-finger , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/risk-escalation-russia-going-way-due-ukrainian-attacks-kellogg

- In regards to Israel, we may be getting closer to WWE Summerslam on Pay-Per-View. The latest drama is that Trump is purging his administration of “Israel hardliners”, but we’ve seen this before. Again, remember when Trump pretended to have a falling out with Netanyahu, and it was all fake and gay? However, the Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel are threatening to collapse the government due to them being conscripted into the military, which may force Netanyahu to end the war or watch his government dissolve without the support of the Ultra-Orthodox.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-purges-israel-hardliners-overhaul-mideast-policy , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-ultra-orthodox-push-dissolve-parliament-force-election-over-conscription

- In regards to Iran, Iran is demanding a “nuclear-free Middle East” and wants Israel to give up its nuclear weapons while not-so-subtly pointing out the regime’s rank hypocrisy in trying to disarm Iran while allowing Israel to have a nuclear arsenal while committing genocide against Muslim populations.
source: https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/iran-foreign-minister-we-want-a-nuclear-free-middle-east/

- So the bottom line is that I strongly suspect the Elon Trump beef is fake to distance Elon from Trump now that he’s left the administration and to make Tesla popular with Leftist environmentalists again, at least that’s my take. Interestingly, this happened after Trump set Jerome Powell up to be the “bad guy” for not cutting rates and giving Wall Street what it wanted (i.e. government bailouts). Perhaps this is part of some larger plan to allow the markets to crash without looking like the bad guy for political reasons, or maybe I’m connecting unrelated random dots that have nothing to do with each other.

- I expect nothing to happen regarding Ukraine or Iran that we haven’t already talked about. Russia will take Ukraine, and there will not be a war against Iran. All of this kayfabe bluffing is pathetic at this point. Also, shout out to the Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel for taking care of their community and telling the Zionists to eat shit. Note how they don’t care about Greater Israel or any of that nonsense, but only about the lives of the men in their community that the government is conscripting to send to war. That’s how you do it.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 5th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Crazy day today! There was bad economic data, which caused the “bad news is good news” effect because investors thought that the FED would announce a rate cut in response to the bad data, which caused bond yields to fall. However, Jerome Powell rejected rate cuts, and investors flew off the handle because they were betting on a bailout.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bond-yields-dollar-plunge-bad-data-sparks-surge-rate-cut-hopes , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-choppy-after-weak-data-spurred-drop-yields-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.html , https://palmettograin.com/news/story/32719474/billionaire-grant-cardone-calls-fed-chair-jerome-powell-the-greatest-threat-to-the-american-public-and-should-be-removed-immediately , https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1930355280703041824

- I wonder if Trump’s plan is for Jerome Powell to be the “bad cop” and let the market crash while Trump pretends to be the “good cop” and demands bailouts. At the end of the day, the government NEEDS a recession to bring down bond yields and refinance its debt, but Trump needs to appease his supporters, so having Jerome Powell take the “fall” might be the play.
- The winners in the market today were:

o 1. Bonds
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Gold
o 4. Agriculture Commodities
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Materials
o 7. Real-Estate

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Energy
o 2. Utilities
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o 6. Financials
o 7. Consumer Staples

- The markets were pretty flat today with the only movement caused by the weak jobs data moving the bond market, but then resetting when Jerome Powell didn’t announce emergency bailouts. Other than that, nothing is happening.

- There isn’t much going on geopolitically either. The US Embassy in Ukraine is warning that Russia might still do a massive retaliation for the drone attack on their airfields in the coming days. Regarding Israel, the US vetoed a resolution to force Israel to stop killing people, and the US warned Europe to not recognize a Palestinian State. What’s the plan here? Russia isn’t going to throw Iran under the bus as the peace talks have already failed. They’re just stalling for time with no plan whatsoever. These are the smartest and most powerful men on Earth showing how unbelievably incompetent they are without a full monopoly over the outcomes.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-embassy-tells-americans-be-prepared-take-cover-kyiv-braces-shock-awe-attack , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-warns-uk-france-not-recognize-palestinian-state , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-rejects-us-nuclear-proposal-vows-iran-will-keep-enriching-uranium , https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-backed-gaza-aid-group-halt-distribution-wednesday-un-vote-ceasefire-demand-2025-06-04/

- The bottom line is that the regime is stalling, but I don’t see what they’re stalling for as they have no further cards to play. They’re likely just stalling for time and hoping that something happens. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a terrorist attack on American soil soon because that’s the regime’s go-to strategy: whenever the current situation is unwinnable, throw in a little chaos and see if it creates some new opportunities. My money is on some “Iranian-backed” Muslim terrorist attack, but it could also be Russian or Chinese. We’ll just have to see what the government does to its people to cover up their fuck ups if it happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-03/trumps-border-tsar-issues-dire-warning-another-911-coming

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 3rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing ever happens has triumphed once again. Russia hasn’t done anything, and most analysts are saying that Russia won’t do anything after previously claiming that Russia will launch an Oreznik hypersonic missile barrage in retaliation yesterday. The reason is that the attack was conducted inside Russia using drones and didn’t involve any outside NATO countries directly. Also, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to pull off the same trick twice, so deterrence isn’t really a factor, Russia doesn’t have to do anything, and thus analysts are concluding that they won’t. They will simply continue with their offensive as before as if nothing happened because … nothing ever happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ukrainian-drone-swarm-attack-proves-irregular-warfare-now-operational-reality

- Europe is still pretending that we’re going to start a nuclear war with Russia unless they let us win. Dumbasses.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-signs-lunatics-are-back-charge-setting-nuclear-armed-escalation-russia , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/playing-fire

- In regards to Iran and Israel, Trump has backtracked on his demand that Iran give up all of its enrichment and give up its nuclear energy program. Now Iran CAN enrich uranium for civilian use, so the kayfabe may finally be ending since the regime now wants to pivot back to Russia for some reason.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-expected-reject-what-us-calls-acceptable-nuke-deal-proposal

- Let’s turn now to the markets and see what’s going on:

- I saw a shill thread on X/Twitter today where a guy argued that we’re not headed for recession, but a big bull market, and that nobody is prepared for it and you need to buy bitcoin and tech stock right now. His evidence? Oil prices fell during the Chinese trade war. Well, about that. Crude oil shot up almost 4% today, with natural gas shooting up nearly 8%. Why? Because the trade war is canceled. Remember when Trump said “No more Mr. Nice Guy” the other day and threatened to reignite the trade war and caused the market to puke? He was just joking. Oh, that Trump is such a kidder. It’s not like he immediately cucked when the market began to panic or anything. However, now we know where the market optimism came from now: the insiders were aware that Trump was going to reverse the trade war with China again. However, what the shills pushing the bull market narrative don’t understand is that without a recession, energy prices are going back up. Recession fears are the only thing keeping inflation from surging. Either the market crashes or the market crashes with extra steps.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Rise-Despite-OPEC-Output-Hike-Plans.html

- Oh, and now that the Chinese trade war is off again, and the insiders made their money front-loading it, they’re bearish again. Don’t you just love the rigged casino?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-gross-top-goldman-trader-worries-question-not-being-asked , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-clawed-back-early-losses-despite-ongoing-trade-uncertainty-and-soft-data , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-are-now-sellers-every-scenario

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Gold
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Crypto
o 7. Energy

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bonds
o 2. The VIX
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Agriculture Commodities
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Bitcoin
o Everything else was up.

- Please note that without the fear of a trade war and crippling tariffs, the markets are betting on inflation. However, the only way to stop it would be to accept a recession and crash the markets, which Trump has proven to be unwilling to do.

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening geopolitically, and the markets are even faker and gayer than previously thought possible, but it is Gay Pride Month, so I guess that’s on brand.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 2nd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Let’s start with geopolitics because something happened today! Ukraine launched a massive drone attack across several of the military bases deep within Russia that were home to Russia’s nuclear bombers. Putin has authorized the use of Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to be used in response, and some are calling his Russia’s “Pearl Harbor”, and anticipate a massive Russian response that may end the war. However, I’ll believe it when I see it and will bet that “nothing ever happens” until then.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ukrainian-drone-swarm-attacks-hit-russian-long-range-bombers , https://x.com/AlphonsusOlieh/status/1929208183806902765 , https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1929135654165733450 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-russias-retaliation-ukraines-strategic-drone-strikes-decisively-end-conflict

- There isn’t much else to say. The regime never wanted peace, but simply wanted Russia to agree to a ceasefire so they could rearm for the next round without admitting defeat. Attacking Russia’s strategic bases to disable their nuclear bombers is a telling move, and the comparison to Pearl Harbor is not hyperbolic. Russia gave Trump a chance to keep his promises to end the war, and they gave peace talks a chance, but the Regime doesn’t want peace unless they win and get what they want, and they still think they can win or at least pressure Russia into agreeing to a ceasefire and letting them expand into Ukraine despite losing the war.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-prepared-all-out-conflict-nato-institute-war

- Nothing to report regarding Iran, Israel, or the Houthis. I guess this week will be about Russia and Ukraine, and we’ll check back in with Israel and Iran later. We don’t want too many storylines going at once or the fans will get confused.

- Let’s return to the markets!

- Energy jumped up when the commodities markets reopened, and the sentiment in the markets has done a complete 180 from pessimistic regarding the renewed trade war with China, to wildly optimistic for no reason whatsoever. I have no idea what data they’re looking at to justify such optimism.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tariffs-and-Turmoil-Undermine-Trumps-Oil-and-Gas-Promises.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mamaga-making-mag7-great-again-why-goldman-expects-supertechs-soar-summer , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-bears-capitulate-buy-most-tech-stocks-record , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-we-now-believe-us-stocks-will-outperform-rest-world

- I’ll be watching for confirmation, but irrational optimism by the “smart money” usually means that there are government shenanigans afoot. Perhaps they’ve received assurances that Wall Street will be bailed out or that GDP will come in positive due to some “creative accounting”.

- So the bottom line is that something may happen this week. I’ll be waiting to see what Russia does and if we get some confirmation regarding how the markets are so optimistic regarding tech stock and GDP. If there is nothing rational to explain it, then I can only assume that the government is going to step in and bail everyone out.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 30th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy prices fell on OPEC production increases announced for July. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories fell which means demand is outpacing production, but analysts don’t seem worried and believe the market is balanced. Keep in mind that it is the beginning of Summer, so crude oil demand does experience a seasonal increase due to increased travel.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Unwinding-Cuts-Leaves-Market-Miraculously-Balanced.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EIA-Shows-US-Crude-Product-Inventories-Fell.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-to-Review-Spending-Priorities-After-Oil-Price-Slide.html

- In the markets, Trump's tariffs were reinstated as the lower court was overturned on appeal in record time. This caused stocks to sell off from the optimism that the tariffs were dead from the other day, which was seen as a “risk on” signal paired with Nvidia’s positive earnings.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-responds-trade-court-block-trump-tariffs-nothingburger-white-house-can-sidestep , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-trumps-90-day-tariff-pause-not-peace-ceasefire-rearm , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ignore-court-challenge-when-it-comes-trumps-trade-war-heres-what-really-matters , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-following-nvidia-beat-court-tariff-ruling-newsquawk-europe-market-open

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bonds
o 2. Healthcare
o 3. Real Estate
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Energy
o 6. Gold
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Natural Gas
o 5. Crypto
o 6. The VIX
o 7. The US Dollar

- The market trading indicates recession positioning, likely due to Trump’s tariffs being quickly reinstated.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, the kayfabe regarding Iran and Israel is still ongoing. Europe is pretending that it’s going to stop giving Israel weapons if they don’t stop killing people with them, and there are rumors of a new US-proposed ceasefire deal, but that’s it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-us-proposed-gaza-ceasefire-deal-revealed-amid-conflicting-reports , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-foreign-minister-says-arms-embargoes-will-lead-second-holocaust-end-israel , https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-nuclear-talks-trump-israel-44e3e8a750544f70eb49d12d446c303c

- So the bottom line is that nothing is happening. I guess enjoy the pleasant Summer weather and go touch grass or something.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 29th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, but there was a surprise draw announced that didn’t move the price whatsoever.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Bulls-Cheer-A-US-Inventories-See-Surprise-Draw.html

- In the markets, NVidia posted solid quarterly earnings despite losing $8B, and even Zerohedge doesn’t know where NVidia made up the lost money. Most companies can’t just lose $8B and shrug it off like it's nothing unless they’re the Pentagon. Bloomberg hopes that “someone will ask on the call with analysts”. These are also Q1 earnings being reported, not Q2.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvda-jumps-3-after-solid-q1-results-despite-25bn-lost-sales-china

- The Nvidia earnings were enough to give the normies optimism, so the normies bid Nvidia 5% higher, and markets gained after hours.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-faded-some-prior-days-gains-although-futures-found-some-reprieve-after-hour-post

- A 3-judge panel ruled that Trump can’t impose tariffs and that Trump overstepped his authority. He’s only allowed to give money to Israel. While Trump is appealing, the markets already believed that tariffs were dead anyway.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/futures-soar-federal-trade-court-blocks-trumps-global-tariffs

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. The US Dollar
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Materials
o 6. Agriculture Commodities
o 7. Energy

- Don’t pay too much attention to the market today as the Nvidia earning caused the market to recover after hours which will likely be reflected in the markets tomorrow when they re-open. I’m honestly surprised that Nvidia posted good earnings after losing $8B, and am too wondering where the money came from.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- There isn’t anything going on geopolitically worth mentioning. Israel attacked Yemen and blew up the airport they already blew up. That’ll show the Houthis. There will be no war with Iran, and Russia is still winning in Ukraine despite all the threats and bullshit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-retaliation-strikes-yemen-destroy-last-remaining-airliners-capital , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-i-warned-netanyahu-against-iran-strike , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-proposes-3-way-meeting-trump-putin-wh-rejects-more-anti-moscow-sanctions

- There is nothing else happening. I’m curious to see if the UN meeting regarding the two-state solution will result in anything and that’s what’s dragging the Iranian kayfabe out, but we’ll see. The UN is rarely significant, and even if the UN does agree to a two-state solution, without Russia and China enforcing it against the US and Israel, who’s going to force Israel to abide by it? Remember that without men with guns to enforce the law, laws are just letters to Santa Claus.

- The bottom line is that while I’m curious about Nvidia’s mysterious earnings, it ultimately changes nothing, and I’m still waiting for something to happen. The Iranian kayfabe may move forward next month as part of some kind of bargain regarding the two-state solution, but who knows anymore? Trump having judges cancel his tariffs undermines any leverage he had, so that’s over I guess. What a disappointing end to a disappointing orange.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 27th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Happy Memorial Day! The markets were closed today, so I normally wouldn’t have done a newsletter but I forgot that it was a holiday, so whatever. Anyway, let’s begin with energy and commodities:

- Energy prices were flat. They rose a bit, but not by much. There is an article saying that due to the trailing off of Persian Basin shale oil offshore oil production is set to jump … but no it’s not. Offshore oil is MUCH more expensive to drill for than shale oil. Shale oil is the only reason the US has been able to be competitive in the global energy market. Believing that we can replace falling shale oil supplies with offshore supplies while keeping prices at current levels or lower is fanciful. Oil prices are going up unless there is a recession and ONLY if the government doesn’t go into money printing and bailout mode.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Offshore-Oil-Production-Set-To-Jump.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Falls-Dollar-Weakens-Growth-Stalls.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Takes-Aim-at-US-Shale-Again.html

- the markets… were closed because of Memorial Day, so let’s repeat what we did yesterday and look at how Bitcoin performed on the day as a proxy for the normies. If Bitcoin was positive then the normies would likely bid up stocks, and if Bitcoin is negative, then maybe the normies are scared of something and the markets will sell off when they re-open. Bitcoin was DOWN over the last 24 hours, a bit over 1%, so I guess the markets will be negative when they re-open on Tuesday. If this seems unscientific and arbitrary, welcome to the world of trying to predict what the normies will do.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, we have a couple of developments:

- Iran and China launched a new commercial railway that connects the two countries and allows Iran to send all their oil to China without using tankers and risking the US Navy commandeering their vessels. This also further shows the strong relationship between Iran and BRICS, not just Russia. The railway is faster than sending the oil to China via ship.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-china-launch-new-commercial-railway-bypassing-us-sanctions

- Regarding Iran, Iran was optimistic after the latest round of negotiations while Israel rejected a ceasefire proposal citing that Hamas’s demand that Israel stop killing people is impossible.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-issues-surprisingly-optimistic-statement-after-last-round-us-nuclear-talks , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-rejects-trump-ceasefire-deal-its-even-revealed-citing-impossible-hamas-demands

- Finally, let’s look at Ukraine: since the assassination attempt on Putin, Ukraine has been getting hammered, and in response, the EU lifted the restrictions on long-range missiles to target Russia directly, meaning Europe is potentially provoking nuclear war with Russia to force Russia to cuck and let the regime win. However, this is the bluffiest bluff that ever bluffed. Europe has threatened to provoke nuclear war with Russia several times to try to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, however, nobody has cucked, and the regime is weaker now than ever. It just lost the conflict against the Houthis and the trade war against China. The window to go to war with Russia has already closed. BRICS has already won.
source: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-merz-lifts-range-limits-ukraine-weapons-russia-taurus-missiles/ , https://www.yahoo.com/news/moscow-slams-germany-talk-over-193921664.html , https://www.rt.com/news/618180-kremlin-ukraine-long-range-weapons/

- So the bottom line is that nothing new is happening. The kayfabe with Iran hasn’t progressed. The war in Ukraine hasn’t changed. BRICS has won, and we’re heading straight into either a major recession or stagflationary depression depending on whether Trump bails out Wall Street. That’s the next shoe to drop.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 26th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is mostly flat as the commodities market reopens after the weekend, but natural gas is up a bit and there are articles about how the cost of producing natural gas has gone up twice as much as expected, and projects to increase production are going to be shelved or costs are going to have to rise.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Canadas-Atlantic-LNG-Dreams-Just-Got-Pricier.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Rig-Count-Plunges-Amid-Scary-Price-Environment.html

- It’s hard to say how the markets will behave tomorrow. Some articles from Friday are optimistic, but let’s see how Bitcoin behaved on Sunday. Remember, I’m not paying attention to the WHOLE weekend, only Sunday because the normie’s goldfish memory frankly doesn’t remember what happened Friday or Saturday. Bitcoin was positive on Sunday, but not by much, only up a fraction of a percent, which leads me to think that Monday will be boring with stocks slightly up, but nothing crazy. Investors will be looking for any indication that Trump is going to bail the bond market out and send a little Wall Street welfare their way as well.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unstoppable-bull-market , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-finally-bought-stocks-market-flip-flopped

- Another reason for a possible positive market tomorrow is that Trump once again delayed implementing tariffs on the EU, moving the date back to July as negotiations are still ongoing. This will be seen as positive even though the US and EU weren’t having a trade war like was the case with China previously.
source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-delays-50-percent-tariff-on-eu-goods-to-july-9-post-5863386

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- The only thing worth bringing up in geopolitics is that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin by sending a drone swarm after his helicopter while he was touring the Kursk region. Russia responded with a massive barrage of missiles across Ukraine, and the tone in Russia has shifted. Russia was already preparing a new offensive, but they may step things up and escalate even further due to the assassination attempt.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-tried-attack-putins-helicopter-mid-flight-russia-alleges-responds-massive

- Other than that, nothing else worth reporting has happened or changed. Some people are still speculating about if Israel will attack Iran, but if nothing happens this week I think Israel will face a “Boy who cried Wolf” situation where nobody will believe Israel’s threats, and if the goal of the threat is to pressure Iran to make a deal, it hasn’t worked. Nobody has cucked to Trump and it’s getting embarrassing at this point.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pro-palestine-activist-target-ontario-food-terminal-blockade , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/doug-casey-neocons-and-their-push-next-big-war

- So the bottom line is that this week is looking pretty boring and uneventful. I don’t see anything happening regarding Iran, and we’re weeks away from getting preliminary estimates regarding Q2 GDP. Someone messaged me to point out that the numbers won’t be published until August, but remember that the economy is being propped up by the government, not the private sector, so while the private sector numbers contribute to GDP, they aren’t the deciding factor. I expect the government insiders to begin trading in June or July when they become aware of the numbers ahead of publication. Yes, it’s super illegal to conduct insider trading, but the laws are only for the “little people” like you and me.

- Anyway, maybe I’m surprised and something happens this week. We’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 23rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Crude prices leveled off today due to uncertainty regarding Israel’s attack on Iran which didn’t happen. There are also “rumors” that OPEC will raise production again.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Flat-as-Uncertainty-Clouds-Market-Outlook.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Considers-Another-Big-Oil-Production-Hike-in-July.html

- In the markets, the bond market continues to crack, and people are wondering why the stock market isn’t crashing. The answer is simple: Wall Street is confident that a bailout is right around the corner. They’ve been trained to see “bad news” as “good news” because whenever the market looks bad, rather than panicking and selling, just buy the dip because the government will bail you out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-japanese-bond-market-imploding-goldman-explains , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-shocking-admission-only-offramp-break-treasury-stock-reflexive-selling-loop-means , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/10y-yields-surge-what-rate-do-stocks-break , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-anti-fragile-now-dollar-selloff-fragile

- The big winners today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- The big losers today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Brent Crude Oil

- Notice the cycle wherein the normies ignore bad news, then panic, and then buy the dip with the expectation of a government bailout. This is a toxic cycle, and the only thing that will dissuade normies from investing in bubbles and bullshit is a massive crash and no bailouts, which will wipe them out completely. However, if the government keeps bailing the markets out, even as they double down on stupid, it will inevitably destroy the dollar and the financial system along with it. Again, I EXPECT Trump to bail everyone out because he is an orange disappointment, so prepare accordingly.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, Iran called out America on their bullshit wherein they will support an Israeli attack on Iran, and Iran won’t destroy all the US bases in the region because the US wasn’t directly involved (see Ukraine for a similar example of the US getting directly involved in a supposed proxy war). Iran isn’t playing that game and stated that if Israel attacks Iran will hold the US directly responsible and proceed accordingly. Again, Iran’s nuclear facilities cannot be destroyed as the US couldn’t even take out the Houthi weapons caches with their bunker busters which are nowhere near as fortified as Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, this move does take the wind out of the sails of anyone hoping they could repeat what they did in Ukraine by attacking Iran indirectly and that Iran wouldn’t respond directly. The difference is that Russia doesn’t NEED to attack NATO directly to win the war, but Iran isn’t Russia. Israel has a bigger military than Iran, and so unlike Russia, Iran can’t afford to fight with its arms tied behind its back and allow the US to pretend to be an innocent bystander while it attacks Iran through “Israel”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-will-hold-us-responsible-any-israeli-attack-nuclear-sites-foreign-minister

- Speaking of Russia, despite the phone call between Trump and Putin, there was no deal. Trump is framing it as Putin not being “ready” to end the war. Putin is ready to end the war… by winning it. NATO can concede defeat whenever they want.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-isnt-ready-end-war-ukraine-trump-told-allies-private

- Regarding the Israeli embassy shooting. I do not believe it was a false flag at all because the shooter wasn’t white, but Hispanic, and a bonafide far-leftist, not a neonazi. A minority shooter goes against the narrative, so I believe the shooting was genuine, but that doesn’t mean that the regime isn’t trying to milk it. They’re trying to ban the phrase “Free Palestine” as hate speech and they’re calling the shooting deaths of the two embassy workers a horrific act of terrorism despite Israel bombing embassies, hospitals, refugee camps, reporters, and diplomats on a near daily basis. The Jews are genuinely scared because they were probably expecting random Orthodox Jews to be beaten up in New York or something, not an embassy being attacked by a gunman.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/two-israeli-embassy-staff-members-gunned-down-outside-jewish-museum-dc

- So the bottom line is that everything is proceeding as I’ve foreseen. JPMorgan is even warning about stagflation. Now that the Ukraine War “peace talks” are finally over, maybe the kayfabe with Iran will finally end soon. The Jews won’t be able to spin the embassy shooting to their advantage because the shooter was a Hispanic far-leftist, so there’s that. I’m actually rather bored with how predictable things are at the moment. I guess we’ll just have to wait for the recession and see what Trump does next.
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-05-22/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-warns-of-us-stagflation-risk

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 22nd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy prices are flat, but new reports from China once again show that China is not collapsing and that its energy demand remains robust. I know you’re shocked.
source: https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Electricity-Demand-Defies-China-Slowdown-Fears.html

- In the markets, the bond market was causing a mild panic on Wall Street, and the normies reacted predictably. It’s worth noting that the bond market has been dogshit for over a week, but the normies were waiting on the most recent bond auction (20 year) before pressing the panic button. Why would they assume the 20 year auction was going to be anything other than dogshit?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-treasuries-and-dollar-were-pressured-amid-sell-us-impulse-and-losses-exacerbated , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-assets-sold-tax-bill-fears-and-weak-bond-auction-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/single-most-important-market-indicator-accelerating-us-fiscal-risks-deutsche-bank , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-soar-stocks-plunge-after-ugly-20y-auction-sees-biggest-tail-2025

- Hedge funds are the most short they’ve been since before COVID. Let that sink in.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-trend-monitor-q1-short-interest-soars-6-year-high

- In another sign of a bad economy, Target has joined Walmart in reporting weak consumer demand and weakening spending. Roh oh Shaggy.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/target-reports-soft-earnings-slashes-outlook-consumer-spending-weakens

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Gold
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Broad Commodities
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Real Estate
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Healthcare
o 4. Financials
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. Industrials

- Today is proof that knowing economics is superior to reading charts and looking for “indicators”. Anyone with a moderate understanding of the economic situation could have predicted that the bond market was cracking. Why did the normies wait until nearly a week later and only panic after a weak auction? The writing was on the wall for anyone to read.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- There isn’t much to talk about in geopolitics. Israel is getting ready for Wrestlemania by renewing their commitment to ethnically cleansing the Palestinians, and they even shot at a group of International diplomats who were visiting the West Bank. Israel is also hiring mercenaries via LinkedIn. I shit you not.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bibi-defiant-unfazed-all-gaza-will-be-under-israels-control , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-israeli-troops-fire-shots-international-diplomats-visiting-west-bank , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mercenary-firm-set-oversee-gaza-aid-israel-goes-linkedin-hiring-spree

- Two Israeli embassy staff personnel were shot dead today in Washington DC. Notice that nobody burned down an unrelated Autozone in a “mostly peaceful protest” or anything like that.
source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/us/2058576/breaking-two-diplomats-have-been-shot-dead

- So the bottom line is that nothing is happening that we haven’t already talked about. I wish they’d move the kayfabe along and get it over with, but it’s whatever. Everything is moving forward predictably, but it’s boring to wait for the conclusion.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 20th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, but I’m seeing articles that energy companies are bullish because, rather than recession fears causing energy speculators to bid energy down, they’re bullish because they think that recession risk equals government bailouts and more money printing, which will increase inflation and cause energy prices to rise. After all, energy prices spike first when there is inflation due to energy prices being extremely sensitive to price swings.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Tariffs-Cant-Stop-the-US-LNG-Boom.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/7-Energy-Winners-in-a-Market-Going-Nowhere.html

- In the markets, as predicted, the credit downgrade from last week suddenly matters, and the end of the Chinese trade war from last week no longer matters, causing the markets to be “mixed”, but we’re in a paradoxical “bad news is good news” environment because Wall Street is expecting bad news to increasing the likelihood of bailouts. It’s important to know that Wall Street is pricing in bailouts BEFORE a crash. They have been trained during the Biden years to expect preemptive bailouts, so they see bad economic news as bullish and believe that there won’t be a crash because the government will just bail them out if the news gets too bad to prevent one.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-finished-mixed-after-clawing-back-initial-losses-us-sovereign-rating-downgrade , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-goldman-trader-not-particulartly-worried-about-usa-downgrade , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-reiterates-its-long-gold-recc-amid-price-dip-targets-4000-mid-2026

- Here’s the thing: I might be wrong and the government DOES pre-emptively bail out Wall Street, but here are my reasons as to why they won’t. If I’m wrong, I’m sorry.
o 1. It’s not an election year, and next year is merely the mid-term elections, not the Presidential elections.
o 2. The bond market is cracking, and the ONLY way to increase demand for bonds (and lower bond yields) is to allow the market to crash. We NEED a recession.
o 3. The government needs to refinance its debt, and NEEDS rates to come down. This can only be accomplished by raising bond prices, which will only happen during a recession.

- There are other reasons, such as home affordability and stagflation, which make the case that the government must allow a recession to occur, but the above are the most important reasons that don’t require an advanced understanding of economics to understand. Again, I could be wrong and the government fucks themselves with their stupidity and hubris like when they manipulated energy for WAY too llong and killed the petrodollar while driving OPEC into the arms of BRICS just to help Biden look good until after the election. Maybe the government is still stuck on stupid and destroying the global financial system out of stupidity and arrogance. We’ll see.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-forget-moodys-investors-have-accepted-fact-us-debt-will-expand-absurd-pace , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trade-truce-euphoria-cooling-fast-chinas-markets

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Gold
o 5. Healthcare
o 6. Agriculture Commodities
o 7. WTI Crude Oil

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Bonds
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. Broad Commodities

- Again, the market is betting on bailouts, so bad news is good news. Trump has encouraged this behavior by publicly pressuring the FED to lower interest rates and introducing his “big beautiful bill” that massively increases government spending.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- There isn’t much to talk about in geopolitics at the moment. Trump and Putin had a phone call after the failed peace conference in Turkey. I predict that nothing will come of it unless Trump withdraws the US’s support of Ukraine and allows nature to take its course.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-speak-putin-zelensky-monday-toward-ending-ukraine-bloodbath

- The Iran kayfabe continues. Iran is saying that they aren’t giving up their civilian nuclear energy program, and that if the US is demanding that Iran halt all enrichment isn’t going to happen. Again, as a reminder, Iran will give up its nonexistent nuclear weapons program, but will be allowed to enrich uranium for civilian purposes with Russia acting as the custodian to ensure that Iran can’t use the materials to make nuclear weapons. The kayfabeis being dragged out to give Israel more time to increase their bodycount before they’re told “that’s enough” and the wars are ended with a grand peace conference which will allow the regime (including Israel) to lose the wars they started without admitting they were defeated, but instead were “forced” to make a “grand bargain”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-clarifies-nuclear-talks-will-fail-if-us-pushes-zero-enrichment

- The only other item of note is that Pakistan received Chinese Intelligence support during their brief war with India, which allowed Pakistan to “punch above their weight,” as they say, against the much larger Indian military, which coincidentally uses a lot more NATO weapons compared to Pakistan. This allowed China to be the big winner in the conflict by allowing China to show off some of their advanced military capabilities, which have always been an unknown variable since China doesn’t instigate wars with anyone.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-says-china-provided-intelligence-pakistan-during-border-clashes , https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1w3dln352vo , https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/chinese-arms-shine-india-pakistan-conflict

- So the bottom line is that things are still progressing as expected, so nothing new is happening that we haven’t already talked about. I’m waiting for the kayfabe to end and to see whether Trump goes along with the bailout plan Wall Street expects and destroys the dollar, or if he allows a recession to happen to save the dollar and allow the government to refinance its debt at lower interest rates. As always … we’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 19th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- As the commodities markets reopen after the weekend, energy is flat. Recession fears will likely re-enter the news cycle this week, and energy will trend downwards due to speculation. Egypt is having an energy crisis already, so that’s something.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Output-Nearing-Peak-as-Oil-Prices-Stagnate.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Egypt-is-Scrambling-For-Cheap-Oil-and-LNG-as-its-Energy-Crisis-Deepens.html

- In the markets, let’s see if the market will continue to go up based on the end of the China trade war for a second week by looking at the price of Bitcoin over the weekend as a proxy for tech and normie nonsense. Bitcoin is down over the last day, so based on that, the market might be bearish tomorrow as the gas from the Chinese trade war reversal may have run out, and recession fears will be the narrative again.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-explains-what-90-day-trade-war-truce-means-and-doesnt-mean , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-tail-extremes-reduced-goldman-macro-traders-warn-very-little-recession-risk-priced

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, now that Hamas has let the American-Israeli dual citizen hostage go, the US has broken its promise to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. The fake kayfabe where Trump and Netanyahu were supposedly fighting and Trump was accusing Netanyahu of manipulating him, all of that was an act. Trump was pretending to have a falling out with Netanyahu to make a deal with Hamas, but now that Trump got what he wanted, all the deals are null and void, and Trump and Netanyahu are best friends again. I didn’t fall for the act for a minute. Hopefully you didn’t either. Sadly, Hamas did, but hopefully they learned something.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-denies-rift-netanyahu-says-pm-fought-hard-bravely

- In Romania, the “far right” candidate that the EU tried to prevent from running and arrested has suddenly lost the election in the last minutes after being ahead in the polls. What are the odds? Democracy, amirite? There was too much at stake, including NATO’s largest military base, which was built in Romania, to risk on the voting of those silly Romanians. Don’t they understand that the Regime is trying to save “our Democracy”? What will the Romanian do? Nothing. I have no faith in anyone in the West doing anything, but luckily, while the Regime is adept at stealing elections, they can’t seem to win wars, and that’s ultimately what will decide things.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/establishment-seethes-far-right-romanian-candidate-closes-presidential-win , https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/18/romania-election-nicosur-dan-george-simion/ , https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanians-vote-presidential-run-off-that-could-widen-eu-rifts-2025-05-17/

- There isn’t much else to say. There is supposed to be a “call” between Trump and Putin soon, but that will go nowhere, and after the stunt Trump pulled with Hamas, Putin would be a fool to make a deal with Trump now. Speaking of Hamas, Israel has begun their newest “major ground offensive” into Gaza to kill everyone who’s managed to survive this long before the UN meeting next month regarding the Two-State Solution.
source: https://www.rt.com/news/617810-trump-aide-believes-putin-call/ , https://www.rt.com/news/617803-israel-ground-offensive-gaza/ , https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/witkoff-hamas-trump-deal-edan-alexander-lift-blockade-israel , https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-conference-on-two-state-solution-to-israel-palestinian-conflict-set-for-june/

- So the bottom line is that nothing is happening… yet. Russia will have to take Odessa before any negotiations for peace are taken seriously. The US is still acting like it’s in charge and calling the shots. Also, betraying Hamas sealed the fate of all future negotiations. Nobody will believe the promises Witkoff or Trump make going forward, and of course, it was all in the service of Israel. I’m curious to see what Libya will say to Trump’s plan to force the Palestinians onto them. They’re likely tell trump to fuck himself like everyone else has, and since nobody trusts anything Trump promises, what is he going to do then?

- As far as the markets go, I expect a negative week since the trade war ending was last week, and the normie’s goldfish memory will kick in, and the rally will reverse as the economic fundamentals begin to become important again. The bond market is not looking healthy, but nobody cared last week, but they’ll probably care this week.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 16th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat. Finally, all the swing trading from the cancelled Chinese trade war is settling down, and we’re returning to our regularly scheduled recession fears narrative.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tariff-Uncertainty-Forces-Engie-to-Reassess-American-Energy-Ventures.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Fracking-Company-Forecasts-Major-Shale-Slowdown.html

- In the markets, while things are up since the trade war with China has been cancelled, the markets are mixed and it's “uncomfortably crowded on dead-cat-bounce island” according to Zerohedge. As I said yesterday, while markets are up in the short term, the fundamentals are dogshit. Even the below expectations CPI yesterday was only due to falling gasoline prices and eggs. The egg prices were artificially high under Biden due to the mass slaughter of chickens over a bird flu scare. Gasoline prices were high due to Middle Eastern tensions, but Trump’s trade war caused recession panic, which caused oil futures to fall, which caused gasoline prices to fall. The problem that with the trade war over, oil and gas have nowhere to go but up from here.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-uncomfortably-crowded-dead-cat-bounce-island

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Utilities
o 2. Consumer Staples
o 3. Real Estate
o 4. Gold
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Healthcare
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Consumer Discretionary

- Like I said, the cancelling of the Chinese trade war is now priced in, and now the market will return to recession fears unless Trump promises for bailout and free stuff.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- There isn’t much going on geopolitically. The meeting in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia turned out to be a giant nothingburger. Zelensky said that Ukraine will NEVER accept recognizing the parts of Ukraine that joined Russia as Russia, so the talks were a complete waste of time. I think Putin knew this was a waste of time, because he didn’t even bother showing up and sent some junior officials in his stead. Again, a giant nothingburger.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-istanbul-responds-insult-putin-sending-junior-officials-peace-talks-i-am-here , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-has-made-impossible-possible-kremlin-praises-istanbul-20-talks

- There is talk that Trump and Putin will meet without involving Europe or Ukraine. The only outcome will be that the US suspends all aid to Ukraine and “nature takes its course”. Some are speculating that the US might threaten to increase aid to Ukraine, but after what happened in Yemen, most analysts are expecting Trump to just take the “L”… finally.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-has-made-impossible-possible-kremlin-praises-istanbul-20-talks , https://www.rt.com/news/617639-trump-putin-ukraine-conflict/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/yemen-taught-trump-some-lessons-hed-do-well-apply-towards-ukraine

- There isn’t much else to report. Yemen launched another missile into Israel today, and the Orthodox Jews are protesting because the government is trying to draft them to fight in the war, so the Orthodox Jews are flying Palestinian flags to troll the Zionists. However, nothing is happening that changes anything or is significant enough to report.

- So the bottom line is that nothing happened today. The markets are settling, the Ukraine peace talks were a nothingburger, and the kayfabe is still ongoing. Maybe nothing is happening because Trump is in the Middle East making deals with the Gulf Sheiks, but who knows? Maybe something will happen next week. We’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 15th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The CPI came out, and despite Trump’s tariffs going into effect during the recorded month, due to falling egg and gasoline prices by double-digits, the total inflation rate did not increase month over month. However, the tariffs will cause inflation to rise due to the nature of tariffs being calculated as a price increase and not a tax, but at least for this month, the inflation was offset by eggs and gasoline.
source: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-data-reveal-impacts-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs/story?id=121706453

- Meanwhile, oil has been stable and inching up due to the end of the Chinese trade war, but prices are still bearish due to recession fears despite optimistic demand forecasts.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/American-Shale-Patch-Is-Under-Hedged-But-Bullishly-Optimistic.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Production-Fell-in-April-Despite-Pledge-to-Start-Hiking-Output.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Cuts-Forecast-of-Oil-Supply-Growth-From-Rival-Producers.html

- In the markets, while things are still going up due to the end of the trade war with China, analysts are warning that this is a short-squeeze rally and not an indication that the risk of recession has passed. However, this reminds me why I’m not a daytrader or mess with options contracts. I haven’t lost anything through all this back-and-forth tariff nonsense.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/riskreward-doesnt-look-great-top-goldman-trader-warns-market-latter-innings-forced-re , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fast-and-furious-shorts-carried-out-stretchers , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-do-after-rally-goldman-sachs-strategist-doesnt-see-much-upside-here

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Information Technology
o 4. Consumer Discretionary
o 5. Crypto
o 6. The US Dollar
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Healthcare
o 3. Gold
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o 6. Brent Crude Oil
o 7. Real Estate

- Once the short squeeze is over, expect the markets to return to recession fears again. The fundamentals haven’t changed, just short-term positioning and day traders getting squeezed.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, a new poll found that 70% of Americans support making a deal with Iran, and supposedly, the Saudis are pushing for Trump to make a deal with Iran. The kayfabe continues, but will be resolved this summer at WWE Wrestlemania, live on Pay-Per-View.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poll-70-americans-support-nuclear-deal-iran , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-praises-young-attractive-president-sharaa-founder-al-qaeda-syria-qatar-visit

- Also, it’s not just Syria. Trump is trying to get the other Arab countries to join the “Abraham Accords” and normalize relations with Israel after they genocided Palestinians in front of their faces. Syria has no choice since the HTS government only has power thanks to the CIA and America in the first place, but the other Arab states that joined BRICS have demanded a two-state solution as a precondition for normalization. The UN is holding a conference regarding the two-state solution next month (June).
source: https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-speaking-saudi-arabia-says-he-wants-iran-deal-add-more-countries-abraham-accords , https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uk-discussion-france-saudi-arabia-palestinian-statehood , https://unwatch.org/background-to-june-2025-un-conference-on-two-state-solution/ , https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-forms-global-alliance-push-israeli-palestinian-two-state-solution-2024-09-27/

- Finally, with the trade war over, an “armada” of ships from China is heading for the US so that the shelves won’t be bare in June/July when the warehouses run out of stock since Trump blinked and backed off he trade war.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-exporters-unleash-armada-shipments-us-and-heres-new-way-track-it

- The bottom line is everything is working out. Russia and China didn’t cuck, and they sealed the regime’s fate. The empire is doomed. Iran is the final act, and once the kayfabe is over, the regime will be defeated and forced to work within the new multipolar framework. You can forget about “the great reset” and all that globalist shit. The only open question is what Trump will do when the recession happens. Will we merely have a necessary recession during a non-election year, or will Trump bail everyone out and try to reinflate the bubble economy again? We’ll see soon enough.

Monkey’s Market Minute: May 13th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Oil prices continued to rally, recovering another few dollars and settling around $63 as Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs with China.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Rally-on-Trade-Talk-Breakthrough.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Surge-As-US-and-China-Agree-to-Tariff-Cuts.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-china-reach-agreement-lower-tariffs-90-day-cool-period

- The markets have flipped, and everyone is bullish now, at least in the short run. The end of the trade war is indeed good news, and markets will reflect that, but this rebounding market is only the crash caused by the tariffs reversing; however, the economic fundamentals aren’t getting any better, and we’re still heading straight into a recession.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-now-buyers-every-scenario-buybacks-accelerate-and-bearish-funds-capitulate , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/empty-ports-and-half-full-container-ships-ticking-clock-consumers-and-investors

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Information Technology
o 3. Crypto
o 4. S&P 500 Index
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. Healthcare

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Gold
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Agriculture Commodities

- There isn’t much to say about the market. It’s recovering from the tariffs, but this is a short-term rally only significant to day traders.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: We MAY be in a recession or We MAY be on the verge of World War 3 (see what we did there?) Whatever happens, you need to diversify your investments. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, the media is mirroring what I said on Saturday, that the India-Pakistan pseudo war was interesting only because it allowed Chinese fighter jets to prove themselves in combat, and they proved themselves they did. The French company that made India’s fighter jets that were shot down by Pakistan’s Chinese jets saw their stock price get shot down as well. Again, it was irrational for anyone to believe Chinese military technology was inferior when the Chinese are already beating the West in so many other high-technology sectors, but now that narrative can be put to bed once and for all.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-only-real-winner-india-pak-sandbox-unprecedented-combat-testing

- In Middle Eastern news, Iran is refusing to give up its nuclear energy program, but nobody is going to do anything. Trump is flying to meet with OPEC and hoping to make a deal with the Saudis, so the kayfabe with Iran will have to wait.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-rejects-unacceptable-us-demand-dismantle-nuclear-sites , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-seeking-1-trillion-saudi-investment-air-force-one-en-route

- Finally, the Kurdish PKK terrorist group has disbanded because the US is pulling out of Syria, and the Kurds are going to be abandoned, so they’re ending their 40-year war with Turkey and any dreams of having a country of their own. I was expecting the US to stick around in Syria and hang onto the control of Syria’s oil fields, but I guess that’s not the plan anymore if we’re throwing the Kurds under the bus already. Perhaps Trump is realizing that it’s better to cut the losses now and end all these forever wars. Sucks for the Kurds, but it is what it is.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kurdish-militant-group-pkk-disbands-after-40-year-conflict-turkey

- So the bottom line is that this week is going to be the week where deals are made. Trump made a deal with China, and he’s off to make a deal with the Saudis. We’ll have to see what comes from these deals, but as far as the market goes, don’t be deceived. We’re still heading into recession despite the tariff relief. Trump is just no longer pissing on the open wound any longer with his tariffs.