The Morning Constitutional: June 25th, 2025

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Monkey’s Market Minute: June 24th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The propaganda was thick today, so allow me to break the gaslighting and tell you what’s happening:

- Firstly, I was right… sort of. I was right about the kayfabe, but I was wrong about the details of the kayfabe. I thought there would be a “grand bargain” where Trump gets Iran to give up its nukes (that don’t exist) in exchange for a peace deal with Israel. I didn’t count on a fake and gay attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that did nothing, followed by a fake and gay attack on an American military base in Qatar, and then the announcement of a ceasefire. In the end it’s the same thing, and it would have been better if they did what I thought they were going to do because it’s obvious to anyone with eyes that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not destroyed and Trump is lying, so a “grand bargain” deal would have been far better than this fake gay shit.

- The Regime is flailing because they actually thought that the B2s and bunker busters would actually destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump bet big on that strike being successful and lost very similarly to how Israel bet big on their decapitation strike against Iran and lost. When will they stop underestimating BRICS nations? Anyway, what happened to all that “Regime Change” rhetoric from yesterday? It’s all been memory holed hasn’t it? It’s because of Medvedev’s tweet that Iran could be given nuclear warheads by other nations. That ended the Regime’s plans instantly and brought about the current “ceasefire” in less than 24 hours. Ironically, this simply proves that nuclear weapons are required and are the only defense against the Regime. Sad but true.

- Iran is denying that they agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, but there were reports that Iran has considered the strike on the American base in Qatar enough to consider their beef with America settled since the strike on their nuclear facilities didn’t do anything anyway. Perhaps Trump thought that Iran was including Israel as well, or maybe Trump is just talking shit. Why even knows any longer? At least the Strait of Hormuz isn’t being closed any longer, so maybe the government doesn’t have to manipulate the price.

- So the current geopolitical picture is a bit mercurial at the moment because Trump and Israel are having to rapidly change their plans for Regime Change in Iran due to Russia not only NOT throwing Iran under the bus, but openly talking of giving them nuclear warheads. A ceasefire (which Israel will inevitably violate) is the best possible scenario for the Regime at this point, but I don’t believe Iran is done bombing Israel yet. In fact, they have less than weeks’ worth of air defense missiles left, so they should keep up the pressure just like Russia is doing in Ukraine.

- However, as previously said, it’s clear that Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the US, so other than the attack on the one Qatar US base (which they told the US ahead of time they would strike while giving them time to evacuate) I doubt Iran will do anything else, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t about Iran being weak, but was done in coordination with their BRICS allies. Remember that BRICS doesn’t want WW3, and simply wants to stop the Regime’s war machine, which is why the current tactic is to exhaust their air defense supplies. They don’t want a slaughter that will cause a nuclear exchange, just to exhaust the Regime economically and militarily so they’ll collapse like the USSR.

- Since the Regime Change rhetoric has been memory holed and now everyone is hailing Trump’s brilliance for this non-existent ceasefire, there may not be a false flag. The purpose of the false flag was to gin up support for the war, but if Russia is going to give Iran nukes and the war is cancelled, there’s no point in launching a terrorist attack in the first place. It’s kind of hilarious to see Trump try to maintain this image as a brilliant deal maker and world leader in the face of his string of embarrassing defeats, but Trump has charisma, so at least there’s that.

- Shifting to the markets, the energy markets crashed on the news that a ceasefire was reached (which Iran denies, but shhhhh), with crude oil falling 7% and natural gas falling over 4%. Earlier today, Trump tweeted about keeping oil prices low, so the ceasefire announcement may have been related directly to this issue.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Orders-Oil-Sector-to-Keep-Prices-Low-After-Strikes-on-Iran.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sentiment-lifted-and-crude-craters-iran-delivers-symbolic-strike-empty-us-bases-newsquawk

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Real-Estate
o 3. Consumer Staples
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. The VIX
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Crypto

- The market moves based on what the TV says, not what’s true, so currently the market is moving based on the assumption that Trump destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities and they’re begging for a ceasefire with Israel because Trump played 4D chess or something. If the narrative changes tomorrow or if the realities of the battlefield contradict the propaganda, I expect the normies to panic again, but for now, they’re blissfully optimistic that Trump saved the day and Iran has surrendered.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-press-secretary-hints-iran-regime-change-claims-intel-said-weeks-nuclear

- The bottom line is that the Regime is losing strategically and its airstrikes are ineffective, but thankfully for the world, BRICS doesn’t want WW3 and is willing to de-escalate since time is on their side, and the more defeats the Regime is handed, the quicker de-dollarization momentum builds and the Regime falls once and for all. Nuclear war is the only way BRICS loses (not that the Regime wins, it’s a tie when you think about it). The challenge for the Regime is to spin their strategic defeats as victories using propaganda and gaslighting, but that’s better than using false flags and terrorism to try to overthrow the Iranian government, so it’s a win. BRICS doesn’t need to win the propaganda war (especially in the West) as long as it wins the actual war on the battlefield

- So while some may say that “nothing ever happens” because WW3 didn’t break out and we didn’t nuke each other, that’s not true. BRICS won by forcing the Regime to abandon its plans for war with Iran in less than 24 hours and pivot to this ceasefire narrative. The Regime takes another L, and since we won’t be at war, maybe we won’t “money printer go brrrrr” in a couple of months when we enter recession officially and the market crashes. We’ll see.

The Morning Constitutional: June 18th, 2025

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Monkey’s Market Minute: June 16th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Lots of updates, we’ve officially left the “nothing ever happens” era:

- Since Iran’s air defenses have been restored, Israeli air strikes have ended and Israel will not enter Iranian air space and is forced to launch missiles form Iraqi airspace and rely on terrorist tactics from within Iran using sleeper agents (mostly drones, sabotage and car bombs). Needless to say, this isn’t enough to bring down the Iranian government, and Iran is already ferreting out the terrorist cells, and estimate they’ve eliminated 80% of the terrorist cells already. Israel has no other cards to play other than “the Samson Option” to threaten Iran.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934390630593028382 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934365587263623563 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934356544155537533 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934269154657505412 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934249591207059765

- Iran is launching another wave of missiles right now and they’re getting through despite multiple countries helping Israel with their air defenses. Iran says they have enough missiles to bomb Israel every day for 6 months. Israel is begging for help at this point, but the only country that’s answered the call is France, big oof.
source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/france-president-emmanual-macron-says-iran-destabilised-region-france-will-defend-israel-8663029 , https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/Jun/14/iran-warns-us-uk-france-against-helping-stop-retaliatory-strikes-on-israel

- The UN conference on Palestinian statehood was cancelled due to Israel attacking Iran. Was this why Israel launched the attack when they did, to derail the conversation about the two-state solution? Boy did they leap out of the frying pan and into the fire with that move.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/14/world/middleeast/palestinian-statehood-conference-postponed-israel-iran.html

- Finally, as we await the inevitable terrorist attack by Israel to get the US into the war, Netanyahu is talking about an assassination plot by Iran to kill Trump. Would Israel really assassinate Trump? Actually, it makes more sense than you might think. Now that Trump used peace talks as a rouse to lure Iran into a false sense of security, nobody will ever trust Trump’s “diplomacy” again, but if Trump is removed and replaced with JD Vance, then maybe BRICS will give the US a second chance and allow the regime to play the same trick again. Trump has been a massive failure on all fronts anyway, so he’s outlived his usefulness. Israel assassinating him would allow Trump to serve one final purpose.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hints-possible-us-entry-war-amid-stepped-israeli-daytime-attacks-tehran , https://x.com/ExxAlerts/status/1934331564013629621

- Iran isn’t stupid and knows that the Regime will organize against them, but you’re not hearing much just like you’re not hearing much from Russia or China. Behind the scenes everyone knows that if countries start making public declarations that this can spiral out into WW3, which the Regime cannot win by their own admission. Again, I didn’t think that Israel would attack Iran because this exact thing would happen, and now Israel is “finding out”.
source: https://x.com/Kahlissee/status/1934351886779568476

- The Regime was defeated in Ukraine but it will die in Israel, figuratively and literally. The best part is that this will be a self-inflicted wound. Israel chose to attack Iran believing Iran to be weak just like NATO thought Russia was weak, and Trump thought China was economically weak when he launched his trade war. Their hubris and stupidity has led them to their own demise.

- The markets are going to crash tomorrow unless Trump and the Regime throw Israel under the bus and make peace with BRICS, which we all know they will NEVER do. Iran hasn’t committed to closing the Strait of Hormuz yet, but is reserving that as a threat to give the Regime second-thoughts about escalation. If Iran closes the Strait, you’ll see $100 oil and $7 gasoline within a week and the markets will crash. According to Polymarket, there is currently a 34% chance Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, but the number was 40% yesterday when Israel was “winning”. Now that Iran has the advantage, the odds of a global energy crisis are falling, but that’s the rub. The Regime can’t win because if Iran is threatened, they’ll cause a global financial crisis, but they’re already in too deep, and because we’re talking about Israel, the Regime will have their back 200%.
source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/israel-iran-conflict-why-tehran-wont-block-the-hormuz-strait.html , https://www.yahoo.com/news/could-iran-carry-threat-shut-230354895.html , https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-2025 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-and-gold-jump-israel-targets-iranian-energy-infrastructure

- So the Regime can downplay Israel losing the war they started with Iran in order to keep the markets calm, or they can beat the drums of war and watch energy prices skyrocket and the markets crash. Either way, they lose. They’re checkmated and cannot win. This is why I thought Trump would cut a deal and reset everything with Israel, because it was the smart move. Now they’re in too deep and they’re fucked no matter what they do.

- The bottom line is that the next shoe to drop is the terrorist attack and possible assassination of Trump by ((Iran)) in order to get the US to go to war for Israel, which won’t work at this point, and Russia and China DO have Iran’s back. Israel jew’d too close to the sun this time. How far will they go? Are we looking at the fall of Weimar or the fall of Judea? Only time will tell.

The Morning Constitutional: June 11th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: June 4th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: May 28th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: May 21st, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: May 14th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: May 7th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: April 30th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: April 23rd, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: April 16th, 2025

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Monkey’s Market Minute: April 11th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I told you so. Watching the market rally yesterday based on the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, while the 10% global tariffs remained in place and Chinese tariffs of over 100% were imposed, was pure madness and stupidity. Well, less than a day later the market crashed again as the normies once again waited 24 hours to panic. Weirdly, normies panic exactly 24 hours later, isn’t it? It’s not just me is it?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-basis-trade-disintegrates-sending-gold-euro-yen-soaring-yields-trip , https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-record-high-dollar-dumps-stocks-commodities-remain-tariff-ied , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-trim-historic-gains-and-dollar-sinks-us-uncertainty-remains-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-trim-historic-gains-and-dollar-sinks-us-uncertainty-remains-newsquawk-us-market-wrap

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Gold
o 3. Consumer Staples
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Energy
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Bonds
o 5. Communications Technology
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Bitcoin

- The normies thought China would cuck and beg for a deal because that’s what Trump was promising, but Trump is nothing more than an orange disappointment.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: April showers bring May flowers, but April can also bring you something great. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, the Houthis have declared victory. According to Middle East Spectator, the failure to destroy the Houthi’s underground military sites with bunker busters has made the US unsure if it can successfully destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/america-has-failed-secure-red-sea-navigation-houthi-leader , https://merovingian.club/web/@Terjesdatter@minds.com/114314625532293967

- Remember when Trump claimed that over 50 countries were kissing his ass and begging to make a deal? Today a White House Official confirmed that “more than 15 countries” have made trade deal offers. The orange disappointment strikes again. He writes checks with his mouth that his ass can’t cash.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-official-says-more-15-countries-have-made-trade-deal-offers

- So the bottom line is that Trump will likely have to call off the trade war with China soon. I’m interested to see what bullshit excuse he comes up with and how he tries to spin his defeat into a victory. This weekend Trump is supposed to be talking to Iran to work out the conclusion of the kayfabe. Trump’s plan to bluff and bullshit his way to victory was a solid plan given the abysmal circumstances Biden handed him. When you’re given a weak hand, but you have to win, the only option is to bluff after all. However, the game is over, and Trump’s presidency will probably unravel in record time as he comes up short on all fronts. Let’s see how this supposed meeting goes this weekend, and how long Trump can maintain this trade war with China.

Monkey’s Market Minute: April 10th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets skyrocketed today and reversed all the losses of the last few days when Donald Trump announced that there would be a 90-day pause in the tariffs after calling the rumor fake news.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-most-5-years-trump-policy-pivot-everything-else-soars

- Only… that isn’t what happened. Tariffs were NOT paused, only the reciprocal tariffs were paused. The global 10% tariff is still in place, and China was hit with a 125% tariff for retaliation, after which China responded by raising US tariffs to 180%. A 10% global tariff and a trade war with China is not bullish, but don’t tell the boomers that. They’re back into tech and crypto as if nothing happened and now feel vindicated that they’ll continue to be bailed out by the government.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/house-republicans-block-democratic-bid-force-vote-tariffs , https://x.com/RWAwatchlist_/status/1909910683363266870 , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/upside-panic-shorts-torched-mother-all-squeezes

- The Trump administration is acting like this was the plan all along, to lure China into a trade war, but that’s cope and bullshit. The truth is the bond market was crashing and Trump needed to step in before banks started failing again.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-bidask-spreads-blow-out-amid-funding-crisis-we-are-starting-look-bit-march-2020 , https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-04-09/stop-what-youre-doing-and-watch-bonds-now , https://www.rt.com/business/615495-trump-stock-market-tariffs/

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Information Technology
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. Communications Technology
o 5. S&P 500 Index
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Materials

- The losers In the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o Everything else was up

- The normies poured into tech stock and crypto and learned absolutely nothing because now that we’re in a trade war with China and have a global 10% tariff, everything is back to normal again… somehow.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: April showers bring May flowers, but April can also bring you something great. How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- In geopolitics, Trump is still threatening Iran and trying to look tough after his tariffs blew up in his face and caused a trade war with China that China will win. Meanwhile, the Houthis shot down their 3rd MQ9 Reaper drone in 10 days, which if you didn’t know is what the US used for airstrikes since there is no pilot and if they’re shot down it’s not that big of a deal.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-claim-3rd-mq-9-reaper-drone-downing-ten-days , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-praises-us-iran-nuclear-talks-scheduled-oman , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-says-iran-should-blow-own-nuclear-sites-under-us-supervision

- The bottom line is that the trade war with China is only beginning and the boomers who immediately bought back into the markets because the tariffs are only 10% for 3 months are fucking stupid. The US and Iran have their negotiation in Oman this weekend, so let’s get this kayfabe over with. Trump has been getting embarrassed by BRICS nonstop, so he needs this win.

The Morning Constitutional: April 9th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: April 2nd, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: March 26th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: March 19th, 2025

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Monkey’s Market Minute: March 13th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat as now suddenly oil is “too risky” for some reason. Natural gas prices should be cooling off as Spring arrives.
source: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/news/balmy-forecasts-melt-natural-gas-futures-spot-prices-as-shoulder-season-nears/ , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Too-Risky-To-Trade-Shorts-and-Longs-Are-Cutting-Risk-in-Oil.html

- In the markets, the CPI for February came in less than expected despite the January PPI coming in hot last month, which is always a precursor for the CPI the following month. They’re claiming that the drop in CPI is due to gas prices falling, but how are prices not rising in anticipation of the tariffs? Shit doesn’t make sense, and when shit doesn’t make sense, someone is lying.
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-inflation-data-cools-in-february-easing-investor-fears-about-the-health-of-the-us-economy-133313159.html , https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/12/economy/us-cpi-consumer-inflation-february/index.html

- After the recent crash, the market recovered today, and I’m reminded of someone commenting during my stream today about how I predicted the crash, but the second crash hasn’t happened yet… Bro, the crash hasn’t even happened yet. The last few days were nothing. They were just normies overreacting to stuff we already knew. The actual crash happens when GDP comes in negative and we’re confirmed to be in recession. If you think the market is bottoming after a couple of days of losses I don’t know what to tell you other than that you’re stupid.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trading-changing-macro-landscape-goldman-explains-why-us-bottom-not-yet , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-worm-ready-turn

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Information Technology
o 5. Communications Technology
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Energy

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. Utilities
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Bitcoin

- Today’s positive day looks like short-covering to me, and the markets will likely fall again by the end of the week. A suspiciously low CPI that defies tariffs and last month's high PPI should not be perceived as a bullish indicator.

- SPONSORSHIP BREAK: As we March towards more inflation (see what we did there?) you must do something! How about a passive real estate investment vehicle paying up to 9% APY that starts with only $500 minimum, plus a $50 welcome bonus? No rent collection. No repairs. No property taxes. Get all the details at yourbestreturns.com. That's yourbestreturns.com

- The only significant geopolitical event that I didn’t cover on the stream this morning was that Trump is backpedaling about removing the Palestinians from Gaza, which is likely due to Iran and friends not cucking as expected. It’s almost like the Regime has lost a major war and the world isn’t afraid of them or something.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-backpedals-controversial-plan-no-one-expelling-anyone-gaza

- Speaking of Iran, Iran is meeting in Beijing along with Russia to discuss their nuclear program. Since even the CIA admitted that Iran’s nuclear program was for peaceful civilian use, and the whole scaremongering about Iran’s nuclear energy is just Israel being Israel, why the trip to China and why include Russia? Iran knows they’re weak compared to the US, and they need the backing of Russia and China to defend themselves. How far will this support go is an open question. Will China and Russia merely shake their fists in front of a camera and “boo” America at the UN, or are they going to get involved militarily? Nobody thinks Russia or China would risk war with the US over a country like Iran, but since nobody is cucking, including Iran, maybe something bigger is forming between these three countries. We’ll have to wait and see.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-russia-iran-hold-nuclear-talks-beijing-after-tehran-snubbed-trump-offer

- The bottom line is that Trump backpedaling on Gaza was a surprise, as is Iran’s behavior. I seriously expected them to cut a deal to avoid a war against the US and Israel, but instead, they’re flying to China along with Russia, which could signal a shifting dynamic in the region, or maybe it’s nothing. Who can say?

The Morning Constitutional: March 12th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: March 5th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: February 26th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: February 19th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: February 12th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: February 5th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: January 29th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: January 22nd, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: January 15th, 2025

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The Morning Constitutional: January 8th, 2025

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