Monkey’s Market Minute: August 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Not much to talk about. The market fell on Friday due to Trump imposing the tariffs he said he was going to impose instead of chickening out like he did a few months ago. Many people bought the dip with the expectation that Trump would rescind the tariffs shortly. This is why you don’t manipulate markets. Once investors are trained to expect manipulation and bailouts, they change their behavior and make the problem worse.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-after-fridays-sharp-drop , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seasonality-isnt-your-friend-now-until-mid-september

- Also, Trump admitted that the government data is bullshit, but he phrased it as the government lying about how GOOD the economy is, and not the total fucking opposite. He fired the lady in charge of the labor statistics for downwardly revising the labor numbers and admitting that the numbers had been inflated for months. Oh well, what are you gonna do, right?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/quality-data-not-strained

- Since the markets aren’t open, let’s see how Bitcoin did on Sunday. It’s up, but just barely, so since Bitcoin is a decent barometer of normie sentiment, I predict the market will be flat and uneventful. The Trump tariffs panic will be forgotten until prices begin to rise in about 90 days, and people won’t blame the tariffs for them because they don’t understand how supply chains and warehouses work. Also, the FED will be under tremendous pressure to cut rates so that they will be blamed for the inflation instead of the tariffs. None of this matters in the end, though. It’s not even an election year.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/business/economy/fed-governor-kugler-resigns-trump.html , https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/trump-urges-fed-board-to-assume-control-if-rates-are-not-cut

- Nothing is happening in geopolitics worth mentioning at the moment that we haven’t already talked about. The Russian deadline will expire in a week, but everyone is already calling it a nothingburger. When even the media knows Trump isn’t going to do shit, you’ve lost the plot.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-admins-secret-talks-moscow-fruitless-putin-proclaims-troops-advancing-along , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ten-days-then-what

- So the bottom line is that the week will likely be quiet, boring, and uneventful. The markets will likely stabilize and wait for rate cuts, and the Regime will continue to lose its wars. The only thing the Regime can do is try to tighten its grip on its domestic populations to hang onto power as it loses its empire. Oh well, it’s not like I had anything better to do.

GSB was down the other day, but here is the MMM that you missed.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 1st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- So remember how oil costs $70 to pull up out of the ground, and production has been falling for the last couple of months because the price of oil has been below $70. Well, today the EIA is saying that the US broke crude oil output records in May, which means production is at an all-time high while also being cut due to the low price at the same time. I’m not even mad or surprised about being lied to at this point. I’m just annoyed and bored with the endless lies.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Output-Set-New-Record-in-May-EIA.html

- In the markets, stocks reversed from their dip yesterday due to the dashing of rate cut hopes because the positive GDP is bullish for stocks. Everything is bullish for stocks! Bad news is good news because it means rate cuts. Good news is good news because even without rate cuts, number go up! Number only go up! Only four stocks are holding up the entire market at this point, and they ALL have to do with AI. Did you know OpenAI has never made a profit? The only ones turning profits are companies like NVidia, who are “selling the shovels” to the gold rush, but none of these AI companies are turning a profit themselves, and this is the ENTIRE market now.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-soar-speculative-mania-takes-hold-july-dollar-bitcoin-bid-bucking-bond

- Meanwhile, Trump is bringing all the tariffs back . . . ALL OF THEM. 10% global tariffs, with select countries having 15%-35% tariffs depending on the deal they made. Remember a few months ago, how this was the end of the world? Apparently tariffs don’t matter anymore for absolutely no reason. Trump’s not “chickening out” either; they go into effect August 1st, which is right now. Markets to all-time highs baby! Number only go up!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/t-day-trump-raises-tariff-dozens-countries-minimum-rate-10 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-fade-tech-earnings-upside-ahead-trade-deadline-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-storm-another-record-high-after-blowout-tech-earnings

- Hedge funds are preparing for a pullback, for what it’s worth, but I don’t expect a crash or anything. The government is going to keep the bubble inflated until it can’t, then everything crashes together.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-cut-longs-stock-market-greed-sets

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Gold
o 5. Utilities
o 6. The US Dollar
o 7. Bonds

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Healthcare
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Real Estate
o 5. Materials
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. Broad Commodities

- Today was a day of reversals from yesterday because markets like to do that sometimes for little or no reason, and it will probably happen again by the end of the week.

- There isn’t much to talk about in geopolitics that we haven’t already talked about. India feels betrayed by Trump for imposing tariffs on them for doing business with Russia because they were hoping to continue to play both sides, and I’m a little surprised Trump pulled this move because India hasn’t been utilized to its full potential as a proxy for the Regime within BRICS, and they’re already being betrayed and thrown away. Also, Indians LOVE Israel, so what the hell?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hellbent-derailing-indias-rise-great-power , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-russia-sanctions-ultimatum-will-blow-americas-face-jeffrey-sachs

- There isn’t anything else to talk about. Russia is dismissing Trump’s threats and saying that they’re immune to sanctions, which is true. They just don’t care. They know they’ve already won, and they are no longer indulging in Trump’s fake diplomacy. They gave him the benefit of the doubt based on his promises to end the war, but now that they know he’s full of shit, they are simply ignoring him and winning the war “the old-fashioned way”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-threatens-russias-failed-former-president-medvedev-who-better-watch-his-words , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-spox-boasts-we-have-developed-immunity-sanctions , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/high-death-toll-kiev-overnight-strikes-russia-reports-major-advance-east

- So the bottom line is that nothing happened today. The markets are gay and the government is lying, but literally what else is new? They’ve been doing this since 2023. The wars are over, and while I’m still confused why Trump double-crossed India, it doesn’t matter because India was never going to be anything but a temporary ally anyway. Maybe we’ll learn more about why this happened, or maybe Trump is just mad about losing and taking it out on his allies because he can. Who knows? Trump’s kind of a dumbass, frankly.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 31st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- With the recession cancelled and inflation heading higher due to the end of recession fears, I was expecting energy prices to rise, but… nope. Although analysts agree with me that prices will likely head higher.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Prices-Likely-Headed-Higher-Over-The-Long-Term.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/70-WTI-Returns-as-Trump-Targets-India-Over-Russian-Oil-Ties.html

- In the markets, the dollar rose to 2-month highs due to the FED not cutting rates as the market expected. I’m surprised stocks fell on the announcement of no rate cuts despite the positive GDP. Do the normies suspect the GDP numbers are fake?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-jumps-2-mo-highs-stocks-dump-hawkish-powell-trumps-dovish-fed , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-finished-lower-hawkish-powell-although-futures-rebounded-after-market-earnings

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. Information Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Broad Commodities
o 4. Materials
o 5. Gold
o 6. Real Estate
o 7. Energy

- Energy didn’t go up much today, but it outperformed based on disappointment regarding rate cuts being cancelled.

- In geopolitics, India has been betrayed by Trump, as Trump announced 15% tariffs on India with additional penalties for doing business with Russia. This shocked India’s government which thought that they were going to get special treatment for betraying BRICS from within, but it turns out that Trump doesn’t care, probably because he knows BRICS has already won and there’s nothing he can do, so he’s just beating up on his vassals to feel better about it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/western-pressure-india-over-russia-already-backfired-even-if-it-partially-complies , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rupee-slides-after-trump-threatens-india-over-russia-trade

- Russia is completely dismissing Trump’s ultimatum to agree to a ceasefire in 10 days, “or else”. Nobody is going to cuck to Trump, and I honestly don’t know what Trump is hoping to accomplish at this point.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-shortened-deadline-putin-will-soon-reveal-which-them-miscalculated , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/step-towards-war-kremlin-slams-trump-threats-unleashes-more-deadly-missile-attacks

- In the Middle East, Israel is annexing Gaza with Trump’s blessing. The UK and France are threatening to recognize a Palestinian state “in September,” which might be a soft deadline for Israel to wrap up the genocide by September. Meanwhile, Iran is switching from using the US-controlled GPS to China’s BeiDou system, presumably to make their missiles more accurate and harder to intercept by the West. Iran has largely been dropped from the news as focus has returned to Russia. We’ll probably check back in on Iran after the deadline with Russia expires and nothing happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-plans-abandon-gps-replace-chinas-beidou-system , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/starmer-warns-uk-could-join-france-recognizing-palestinian-state , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/end-game-netanyahu-now-plans-annex-gaza-bowing-extremist-members-coalition , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netherlands-labels-israel-threat-national-security-unprecedented-move

- The bottom line is that now that Trump has decided to keep the bubble inflated, reignite inflation pressure, and keep rates high at the same time, things are going to get spicy over the next 6 months. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation is a disaster, with the Regime’s only priority appearing to be to buy time for Israel to finish their genocide. However, I’m bored because all the important decisions have now been made. There’s nothing left to do but watch things play out slowly. Prepare for stagflation by the way, shits going to get bad.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 29th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing new to report today in the markets. The markets are bullish based on expectations for rate cuts and bailouts, just like last week. The trade deal with the EU is benefiting the dollar at the Euro’s expense, but we already talked about that yesterday.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shorts-fired-deutsche-bank-sees-positioning-back-line-earnings-growth , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/vix-flashing-risk-gold-etfs-are-filling-real-metal-still-wins , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-bid-while-eur-sinks-trade-deal-benefits-buck-newsquawk-us-market-wrap

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Brent Crude Oil
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Energy
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Bitcoin
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. The VIX

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Real Estate
o 2. Materials
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. Healthcare

- The inflation trade gained today, which confirms rate cut expectations. The FED doesn’t want to cut rates yet because they know prices will rise due to tariffs shortly, and they know Trump will blame the FED and not the tariffs for it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07-28/japans-inflation-crisis-could-trigger-next-global-bond-meltdown , https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07-28/energy-new-play

- In geopolitics, Trump is threatening Russia that if they don’t “make a deal” is 10-12 days that Trump is going to do something. He didn’t say what, but something. Is he going to bomb Moscow and catch a nuke in the face? Probably not. What happens in 2 weeks that’s so important? Who knows? Is Russia going to cuck? Nope.
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/trump-says-he-ll-reduce-50-day-deadline-he-gave-putin-for-truce , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/politics/deadline-russia-ukraine-trump

- Meanwhile, Putin is again offering to mediate between the US and Iran, which shows Putin knows that Israel is the weak spot in the Regime, which may be related to Trump’s threats. Like I said, the Regime has already lost. BRICS is just “running out the clock” and trying to avoid a nuclear war, but the Regime is still acting like they’re in charge, even if they’re lying to themselves.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-informs-bibi-hes-ready-mediate-irans-nuclear-program-trump-makes-more-threats , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-gaza-we-have-get-kids-fed

- The Houthis are escalating their attacks again. It looks like Israel bombing their port for the 100th time didn’t defeat them. Who could have guessed?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-escalate-attacks-ships-linked-firms-dealing-israel-regardless-nationality

- Pepe Escobar is worried that the Regime is going to pivot to starting a war with China, and while the Regime would LIKE to do that, I don’t think they will. Trump just paused the trade war with China a second time for another 90 days because China didn’t cuck, and it’s not going to cuck. The Regime has no way to defeat Russia or even Iran. They couldn’t defeat China in their wildest dreams. All they can do is threaten nuclear war and hope that BRICS cucks, but this is the 3rd or 4th time they’ve tried that, and it hasn’t worked. If BRICS were going to cuck, they would have already done it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-destroy-russia-fail-no-problem-lets-destroy-china

- We’ll see what happens in 12 days when Trump’s deadline against Russia expires, and see what Trump does. My guess is something in between jack shit and releasing the Epstein files, but a lot closer to jack shit.

- The bottom line is that everything is still happening as I’ve foreseen, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. The UK has pivoted hard to oppressing its citizens via internet censorship, and I expect the US to follow as they see their empire slipping through their fingers to hold onto power. This s why I say that there will have to be a civil war in the end, but that’s a “down the road” issue. Nothing to be concerned with for the next year or so.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 28th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big news over the weekend is that Trump and the EU have reached a trade deal, lowering tariffs from 25% to 15%, and that’s it. Remember that there were no tariffs before, and 25% was the end of the world 3 months ago, but 15% is a “deal”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-eu-reach-tariff-deal-avoid-trade-war , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanleys-three-reasons-why-market-should-not-ignore-tariffs

- Since the market expects bailouts and money printing, a lot of people are using that as an excuse to buy Bitcoin and avoid cash because the dollar will crash when Trump bails out the market and “money printer go brrrr”, but remember the “dollar milkshake theory”. The dollar will actually RISE relative to other western currencies which are commonly traded on the FOREX. The Yen and the Euro will crash before the dollar does. If you need a refresher, I’ll provide a link to a presentation by Brent Johnson who coined the theory, but I believe Brent is right which is why I’m not losing any sleep staying in cash despite impending bailouts and money printing.
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da6hMy5sp1M , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-fafo-moment-here

- The month is over, so any “squeeze” based on options contracts will have been “squozed” and I expect the market to settle heading into next month, but nothing will have changed. The market is still primed for the government to bail the market out despite GDP anticipated to be positive next month. Companies are still laying off workers, and the economy is still bad even if the government cooks the books to hide it, so bailouts will still be required. Shit’s fucked yo.
- Geopolitically, Trump has “paused” the tariffs on China for another 90 days, so much for the war against BRICS. Notice that the Regime is beating up its own allies and cucking to its rivals. This is a sign of decline. The Regime is trying to use fear to control its vassals that it still has leverage over, but they have lost control of the global system.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-us-extend-tariff-pause-another-90-days , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-did-not-start-war-another-fiery-showdown-un-over-beijing-moscow-relations

- Trump is trying to use the Nuclear Disarmament Treaty to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire because they have literally no other card to play other than threatening nuclear war at this point. Again, they know they can’t win, but they’re stalling in order to buy time for Israel to kill more Palestinians out of little more than spite. The Regime is finished, but they are “going for the high score” on their way out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-will-engage-russia-nuclear-disarmament-treaty-trump-says , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/epstein-exponential-debt-signs-system-unraveling , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGEU2ebwW4A

- I don’t expect any new developments geopolitically this week. The Regime is stalling for time and Israel is stepping up its genocide, not because they think they’ll win, but simply out of spite and to cause as much death and destruction as they can for as long as they can. While this is morally horrible, it’s in BRICS’s interest to do nothing in order to avoid open war with the US and “run out the clock” as the Regime collapses economically and militarily. It’s very possible that the atrocities will get worse in an effort to goad BRICS into taking action rather than running out the clock. Yes, Israel is basically a super villain literally murdering children in order to lure the hero into a trap. It’s absolutely shameful to see governments that once fought for freedom and liberty become … THIS, but that’s the power of corruption.

- The bottom line is that unless I see something surprising, I’m calling things now. The Regime is finished, and so is Israel. However, this collapse will take years, and the Regime’s answer is to focus on censorship and domestic control in order to prevent civil war as things fall apart militarily and economically, so get ready for that. Things will very likely begin to crash during Trumps’ term, but not next month. Of course, there could always be a black swan event that changes the timeframe and speeds things along, but as it stands down, we’re basically watching the Regime collapse in slow motion as they stall for time so Israel can kill more children.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 25th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Not too much to talk about, but we do have confirmation of something that I didn’t think would happen until AFTER the market crash. Apparently, the government is already implementing bailout proceedings AHEAD OF the event to short-circuit the crash, make the problem infinitely worse, and collapse the entire financial system. YAY

- What am I talking about? Remember how I said that as the dollar collapsed that the Regime would cannibalize its vassals, and rather than the dollar crash, the Euro and other Western currencies would crash first as the Regime cannibalized them? That process has officially begun with Japan. Japan will be the first Western economy to be destroyed and cannibalized by the United States, followed by Europe. While Japan is “kissing Trump’s ass” due to its reliance on the US market, it has more to do with Japan’s debt. They are selling US bonds “at record pace,” but between the tariff and “investment” obligations, the US is making its debt problems worse. Even AFTER the deal Japan made, Trump is only lowering the tariff from 25% to 15%. Japan and Australia are also not enthusiastic about being the next Ukraine in a war against China.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defending-dollar-supremacy-may-be-next-phase-us-china-trade-war , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPX0RZ595l8 , https://min.news/en/economy/af3fcf912562f0ab44f67febc45f6d52.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-japan-are-seemingly-having-second-thoughts-about-de-facto-asian-nato

- In the markets, it’s more of the same. Tech stocks are hitting all-time highs, this time not based on sales, but based on “capital expense expectation”, which simply means the company plans on spending its profits on new investments (likely more AI projects), which I suppose is better than simply buying back its stock, but the economy is being ignored. Even Elon Musk is warning about the economy, but nobody is listening.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-expect-when-alphabet-reports-today , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alphabet-shares-slide-after-big-upward-revision-capex-outlook-search-revenues-soar , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-stock-flat-after-q2-earnings-light-revenue-and-earnings-heavy-vision-lacking-guidance , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-shares-fall-more-8-after-elon-musk-warns-rough-quarters-ahead , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mind-short-squeeze-how-goldman-trading-short-squeeze-euphoria-and-its-looming-end

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Energy
o 5. Bitcoin
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. The US Dollar

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Materials
o 3. Gold
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Crypto
o 7. Real Estate

- You’d think tariffs would be a bigger deal, especially after the Japan deal, where the tariff was merely lowered from 25% to 15%. That’s still a big deal, and Japan is one of America’s best allies and trading partners.

- The big update on geopolitics is that I keep seeing references to September. Congress went into recess until September to avoid further debate over the Epstein files. France will recognize Palestine in September. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Israel attacking Iran before September. I have no idea what they think is going to be different this time compared to last time, but it’s now or never, I guess.
source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/22/house-recess-jeffrey-epstein-files , https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-recalls-team-qatar-gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-again , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-iranian-helicopter-confronts-us-destroyer-approaching-territorial-waters , https://www.newsweek.com/irans-president-issues-threat-2102745

- There isn’t anything else going on. The negotiations with Russia are going nowhere. Russia knows that the war won’t end until the Regime is defeated utterly, and nobody trusts any “diplomacy” from the Regime, regardless. Luckily, if my September hunch is correct, we won’t have to wait long.

- The bottom line is that the geopolitical situation is going as expected, so no surprises there. The markets will likely fall by the end of the week after the “smart money” has a 24-hour head start over the normies. Tariffs are happening, and the market doesn’t seem to care. I guess kicking the can down the road for another 6 months by cooking the books on GDP is all that matters.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 22nd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The energy market is flat, and I may simply stop reporting on it since the commodities market is broken and not really worth tracking any longer. The energy market particularly can’t win because recessions are bearish for energy, so even if the government lowers interest rates and prints money, if they do so to prevent a crash, it will still be perceived as bearish for energy. This is why you should rotate out of energy when the market peaks and prepare for a recession.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-as-US-EU-Trade-War-Looms.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Upstream-MA-Drops-34-as-US-Activity-Slumps.html

- In the markets, meme stock mania has returned. Interest rates are still high. We have a crappy labor market, and nobody can afford their rent, but it’s meme stock time again! I’ve even seen an article from today that it’s a myth that stocks only go up. People now believe that stocks only go up, and we need to write articles to remind people that crashes can hypothetically happen.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meme-stock-mania-makes-glorious-return-thanks-mindblowing-open-gamma-squeeze , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Dangerous-Myth-That-Stocks-Only-Go-Up.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-warns-beware-end-month

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Gold
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Communications Technology
o 4. Bonds
o 5. Materials
o 6. Real Estate
o 7. Consumer Discretionary

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Healthcare
o 6. Bitcoin
o 7. WTI Crude Oil

- The media narrative is touting stocks, but the actual sectors are showing gold, bonds, and other recession hedges outperformed, which could mean the normies are being manipulated by a media narrative to keep the bubble inflated. I’ll have to see how the rest of the week goes. It’s very rare that sector performance would be signalling a recession while the media is talking about “meme stock mania”.

- In geopolitics, the Houthis are launching more missiles at Israel, and Israel is destroying the same port they’ve destroyed several times already, and neither side will accomplish anything. Trump is pretending to be mad at Netanyahu for all the people he’s killing, but it’s all kayfabe bullshit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-pummels-hodeidah-port-again-says-yemens-fate-same-tehran , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-officials-frustrated-trigger-happy-madman-netanyahu-who-just-wont-behave

- The US has moved tactical nuclear weapons into the UK, and some analysts are saying that NATO is preparing for war with Russia, which wil 100% go nuclear, so here we go again. The Regime is going to threaten nuclear war unless Russia and China let them win the wars they’ve lost. They’re really gonna do it you guys. You better let the Jews win or else the nukes are gonna fly.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/plan-it-martin-armstrong-sees-100-chance-nuclear-war , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/analyzing-ambiguity-over-american-nato-arms-arrangement-ukraine

- That’s about it in terms of updates. Iran says they’ll re-engage in diplomacy with the US, but they obviously don’t trust anything Trump says and have no intention of giving up their nuclear enrichment or anything else, but if it buys them time, so be it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/analyzing-ambiguity-over-american-nato-arms-arrangement-ukraine

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening geopolitically. The Regime is trying to start shit again after losing several times in a row in the belief that Russia and China will cuck this time (they won’t). I’m more interested in the market activity signalling recession fears while the media touts meme stocks and bull runs. I wonder if we’ll see something interesting happen. It’s too soon for profit taking, and it’s not the end of the month, so it can’t be options contracts expiring. I’m very intrigued.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 21st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- As the commodities markets reopen after the weekend, energy is flat. This isn’t surprising since the Middle East is relatively calm despite Israel still genociding the Palestinians and the Houthis launching missiles into Israel. As long as the US and Israel aren’t threatening Iran, everything is going according to plan.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Remain-Flat-as-Markets-Digest-EU-Sanctions-on-Russia.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Is-Playing-The-Long-Game41576.html

- In the markets, the media is positive about higher stock valuations, although there are some who are worried that Trump’s tariffs might kill the bull market. The irony of this is that the market is up based on bailout and lower interest rate expectations, so the market is completely dependent on Trump, no matter what. The market is completely fake and gay.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-trump-ruin-markets-summer-vibes , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/gold-getting-too-pricey-heres-where-smart-money-rotating-next , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-best-way-tell-if-we-are-another-stock-bubble

- In geopolitics, nothing is happening that we haven’t already talked about. BRICS is still winning, and the Regime is taking out its frustrations on its allies to try to use fear to keep its vassals loyal. This won’t work, of course, but they refuse to accept defeat and negotiate a new international order peacefully, so it’s whatever.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-again-threatens-destroy-new-iran-nuclear-objects-tehran-teases-pullout-npt , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-and-its-one-two-three-what-are-we-fighting-natos-wars , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-orders-evacuations-central-gaza-widening-military-offensive , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-will-target-any-coalition-willing-forces-ukraine , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mossad-chief-pushes-us-assistance-removing-gazans-outside-countries

- The bottom line is that the next move is up to the US and Israel, whether or not they want to continue the wars and when. The markets are basically set for next month and a positive GDP, which means no recession for another 6 months. If there is a black swan, everyone expects bailouts and printed money. I expect a boring week.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 18th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I know I usually publish these newsletters the night before, but I had a collaborative stream with Erovenus, which went on for several hours, and it was already late by the time it ended.
- In commodities, energy is flat. Even with whispers of a resumption of the war between Israel and Iran, most people are betting that nothing will happen and supplies won’t be affected. While the markets are pricing in new all-time highs for tech stocks and crypto based on the government lowering rates and printing money, they aren’t betting on higher commodity prices. This is because the commodity prices are only one month out, so longer-term predictions aren’t relevant.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slide-Under-Trade-and-Inventory-Pressures.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slide-Under-Trade-and-Inventory-Pressures.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Could-See-a-Significant-Upside-Shift.html

- The markets have been flat, but the bond market is cracking. The foreign demand for US bonds is shrinking, leaving only European central banks that are buying the bonds with dollar swap lines, which is debt monetization but laundered through the Eurodollar system. There is an expectation for a 0.25% cut in July by the FED, which won’t mean much on its own, but the normie expectation is that the government will lower rates and bail everyone out to keep the bubble inflated, and even a modest cut of 0.25% will feed that narrative. If GDP comes in positive in August (which I believe it will based on the buying I’m seeing from “the smart money” we’ll be in this economic limbo for another 6 months as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate but stocks and crypto continue to go up as everyone becomes ever-more concentrated in the riskiest asset classes until the financial system crashes whenever a “black swan” event occurs. When will that be? Who knows?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-breadth-demand-treasuries-thats-problem , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-cut-demanding-trump-risks-vicious-backlash-bond-vigilantes

- The winners in the market today are:
o 1. Utilities
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Agriculture Commodities
o 4. Consumer Discretionary
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today are:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Healthcare
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Energy
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. WTI Crude Oil

- The markets are signaling inflation based on sector performance only a day or two after inflation came in lower than expected, and the media was calling everyone who predicted inflation caused by tariffs wrong and stupid.

- In geopolitics, the one-sided war between Israel and Syria continues, and the apparent answer is as simple as the Jews don’t want to work with any Muslims. Even controlled Muslim assets like HTS are not to be trusted, and despite Jolani doing everything he’s been told and not resisting Israel in any way, the Israeli’s are calling for his assassination anymore. He’s currently fled to Turkey for his safety. The Israelis are happy to work with the Druze in Syria since they’ve sworn loyalty to Israel, so it looks like the dispute is that Syria thought that the US would protect them and that they didn’t have to swear loyalty to Israel, and now they’re finding out who really runs shit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-leaders-call-syrian-presidents-assassination , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-regrets-deadly-attack-gaza-church-after-terse-trump-call , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/huckabee-condemns-west-bank-settlers-terrorist-murder-tampa-man

- There isn’t much else going on. Russia is responding to the US and NATO’s threats against Russia by pointing out that they’re writing checks with their mouth that their asses can’t cash, but everyone secretly knows that Russia has won the war, but is keeping the war going for whatever reason.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-blasts-hostile-us-talk-nato-quickly-seizing-kaliningrad , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-believes-russia-will-win-ukraine-its-just-matter-how-long

- With Israel overthrowing the Syrian government, nobody is talking about Iran any longer. I don’t feel bad for Syria or anything, as they did betray Assad and they reap what they sow, but I thought the plan was to use HTS against Iran since they’re a loyal puppet. Israel seems like they’re taking out their frustration at their inability to defeat Iran in Syria, like an abusive spouse coming home from a hard day at work and beating his wife.

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening. The markets are essentially flat, and all the hype has died down. The Middle East is relatively stable since Israel is only beating on their allies and leaving BRICS alone. Again, if the US and Israel stop aggressing, the wars will simply stop because nobody wants war except for the US and Israel. The Ukraine war is just a LARP at this point. Russia doesn’t even take these clowns seriously any longer, and they’re not going to do shit anyway.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 17th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat with production falling and shale entering the “profit danger zone” due to prices being under $70 for far too long.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shale-Sputters-as-Oil-Slides-Into-Profit-Danger-Zone.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EIA-Settles-Market-With-Reports-of-US-Oil-Inventories-Falling.html

- In the markets, the relatively soft inflation data and rumors of Jerome Powell resigning caused normies to bid up the inflation trade based on lower rates. Metals and crypto went up because crypto is “digital gold” still. Everyone thinks inflation is over and tariffs don’t matter anymore because “number go up”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-ultimately-gained-choppy-trade-amid-cooler-ppi-data-and-fed-independence-concerns , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-bubble-now-bigger-dot-com-tech-bubble-its-peak , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-spells-trouble-powell-mentions-inflation-tumble-4-year-low-growth-concerns-mount , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessent-says-formal-process-find-successor-jerome-powell-has-begun , https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-sparks-market-chaos-likely-fire-powell-soon

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. Real Estate
o 6. Agriculture Commodities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Energy
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- And just like that tariffs don’t matter because the FED’s going to cut rates and there’s no inflation whatsoever. Even Zerohedge is downplaying the tariffs and claiming all the economists were wrong and this time really is different.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-prices-blow-tariff-flation-narrative

- In geopolitics Israel is attacking Syria, supposedly over the Sunni genocide of the Israeli-aligned Druze. This is significant because there was a rumor that the US removed HTS from the terrorist list in order to arm them against Iran, but now Israel is bombing them even though the government is claiming that Israel is their friend. I’m not sure what Israel’s game is other than they do NOT want the Syrian HTS government armed, even if it’s to attack Iran because Israel doesn’t trust them with those kinds of weapons. This is a developing story, so if I learn more or come with a better hypothesis, I’ll let you know.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-conducts-massive-strikes-damascus-amid-sectarian-attacks-druze

- Trump is also already backing off this threats against Russia claiming that he’s not going to provide Ukraine with long range missiles and that they shouldn’t attack Moscow, which goes totally against what was said over the weekend.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-clarifies-no-offensive-long-range-weapons-ukraine-declares-im-nobodys-side

- Nothing to report regarding Iran or the other players.

- The bottom line is that with Trump already backing off his tough talk against Russia, I guess that was a giant nothing-burger. Still curious as to what Israel’s goals are in attacking Syria other than to prevent the US from arming them against Iran. The trade war with BRICS is going as expected, but apparently tariffs and trade wars are bullish now for whatever reason because “number go up”. Whew, I was worried that tariffs were a tax that caused prices to rise and lower people’s standard of living, but apparently this time it’s different because rate cuts are just around the corner because the economy is doing so well. All those layoffs and people not affording rent were a figment of my imagination.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/02/economy/us-jobs-market-june-preview

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 15th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, and there isn’t anything to report.

- In the markets, as I thought, normies are suddenly and expectedly freaking out about Trump’s tariffs all of a sudden for no reason when they shrugged them off completely last week.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-pared-early-weakness-despite-latest-tariff-threats-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-stocks-crypto-loving-trump-policy-flipflop-detox-gorge

- We have more to talk about, but it blends into the geopolitics news, so let’s get the watchlist out of the way first:

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Communications Technology
o 6. Financials
o 7. Real Estate

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Energy
o 4. Materials
o 5. Gold
o 6. Bonds
o 7. Broad Commodities

- The normies are suddenly worried that the tariffs are legit going to happen, but they’re pouring into crypto because they still believe the digital gold meme and think that as the government keeps printing and bailing out Wall Street that this is bullish for crypto. I think this is madness because BRICS was the perfect opportunity to replace the dollar with Bitcoin if crypto was the future of money, but they didn’t. BRICS pay uses a stablecoin. A lot of criminal organizations that previously used Bitcoin have switched to other crypto tokens because Bitcoin is too expensive. So, who is using Bitcoin as money? Nobody. Why would the demand for Bitcoin skyrocket in the future if nobody is using it? Because “numbers go up”. Bitcoin will follow the tech sector down when the market eventually cracks.

- Geopolitics and the market intersect due to BRICS-wide tariffs, which are pushing countries towards China. Both Canada and the EU are responding to Trump’s tariffs by extending their hand to China. I don’t think Canada and the EU are going to join BRICS or anything, but they don’t appreciate being tariffed by Trump and are trying to push back so as not to appear weak. What does all of this mean? Absolutely nothing! The tariffs are a tax on American importers. Sure, it hurts importer revenue due to lost sales, but people will just pay the higher price and move on. Prices have been going up for years already, so people are used to it. Russia is already sanctioned to hell, so tariffs mean nothing to them. China’s economy is steadily growing despite the trade with the US, and the US needs China more than China needs the US.
source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates/?id=123730069 , https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-tariffs-live-eu-trade-ministers-meeting-discuss-new-us-30-rate-2025-07-14/ , https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/china-trade-canada-carney-trump-tariffs-1.7563570 , https://www.dw.com/en/europe-walks-tightrope-amid-intensifying-us-china-rivalry/a-73273914

- Another development today was Trump’s big announcement for Ukraine, and it was that he’s going to sell a lot of missiles to Europe to give to Ukraine. This is brilliant of Trump, and it screws over Europe tremendously. Let me explain: We don’t have any missiles right now. We took missiles away from Ukraine to give to Israel last month, and we are basically out of missiles. What Trump is doing is that he’s selling CONTRACTS to Europe for missiles that won’t exist for years for a war that will be over in a matter of months. Do you see the genius of this? Trump is sticking Europe with the bill at the 11th hour, forcing them to buy missiles that won’t be delivered until the war is already over. Will this new announcement make any difference in the war in Ukraine? Absolutely not, which isn’t the point. Trump knows the war is over, which is also why Trump said the 100% Russian tariffs won’t even go into effect for 50 days. Why 50 days? Why not now? The war could be over in 50 days. This isn’t about winning the war. This is about sticking Europe with the bill for the war.
source: https://www.axios.com/2025/07/14/trump-missiles-ukraine-weapons-attack-russia , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump , https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/trump-set-to-meet-with-nato-chief-as-weapons-deal-with-ukraine-appears-imminent

- In Israel, they’re moving forward with their concentration camp plan. Some European countries are offering Palestinians citizenship if they give up their land to Israel, but so far most Palestinians would rather risk getting shot by the IDF to get water than fly to Europe and go on welfare like many other Muslims. Make of that what you will.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/middleeast/israel-gaza-ehud-olmert-concentration-camp-intl , https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/13/israel-gaza-idf-children-killed/ , https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-hopes-for-gaza-deal-within-a-week-as-sources-allege-netanyahu-stalling/ , https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-861014

- In Iran, the Iranians said that they aren’t even going to bother with negotiations with the US if they insist on Iran stopping its enrichment. Trump is threatening to attack Iran again, and Iran doesn’t care. I don’t think they want a war with the US, but they know that war is inevitable, and that they won the last time and nothing has changed, which would make the outcome any different than the first time.
source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-us-nuclear-talks-uranium-enrichment-5237946 , https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/trump-says-u-s-attacked-three-iran-nuclear-sites/6310932/ , https://truthout.org/articles/us-leaders-gave-up-on-diplomacy-with-iran-we-must-make-them-return-to-it/

- So the bottom line is that the Regime is still losing. Trump is trying to buy time and stick Europe with the bill, but ultimately, the game is over. The Regime went “all in” against Iran and lost. Israel’s plan for a concentration camp in Gaza is such horrible PR that I almost think they WANT the world to hate them. The fact that no Muslim country is siding with Israel and the Jews are trying to send the Palestinians to Europe is very telling. I’m also not seeing ANY movement on the Sunni versus Shiite war, which may mean nothing, or it could mean that the Jews have really stepped in it. I honestly don’t know how they get out of this without taking the L and not doubling down, but I’m pretty sure they’re still trying to double down and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat somehow. I can’t see a single path that leads to victory at this point, and between the Gaza concentration camp plan and the Epstein files not going away, the Regime REALLY needs to focus on damage control and live to fight another day. It’s not the time to start another war with Iran. However, they’ll probably double down.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 14th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat as the commodities market reopens after the weekend. There are articles about India importing oil from the United States instead of their next-door neighbor, Russia. I can’t imagine a scenario where US oil is cheaper to import from the other side of the world than Russian oil, but India thinks they can spoil for the Regime not only within BRICS but in the middle of Asia, surrounded by Russia and China.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-and-Brazil-Become-Key-Oil-Suppliers-to-India.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Needs-Strong-Petrochemical-Sector-to-Compete-With-China.html

- In the markets, analysts are calling the fact that everyone is ignoring the tariffs and bidding stocks higher the “TACO trade” meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out”, which means that nobody believes Trump will impose the tariffs he’s threatening to, but the irony is that the reason Trump chickened out on tariffs before was because the marke was panicking. By not panicking and betting on him chickening out, he has no incentive to chicken out at all.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-taco-trades-just-get-burritod , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fool-me-once , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-market-care-about-tariffs-anymore

- Similarly to how the US lost to Russia and then tried to go to war with Iran thinking that Iran would be an easier target, the US has decided to repeat the failed trade war blueprint with Brazil (the “B” in BRICS). Brazil exports a lot of coffee and orange juice to America, and Brazil has a trade SURPLUS with the US, making the trade war nonsensical unless you know that this is all about BRICS and not about trade fairness.
source: https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/white-house-defends-tariffs-brazil-despite-trade-surplus/story?id=123707996 , https://www.wmur.com/article/trump-tariff-brazil/65371644 , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/trump-brazil-tariffs-bolsonaro.html

- Will the tone on Wall Street change next week? My hunch is that the media will publish scaremongering articles to induce the normies (i.e. retail investors) to panic sell while the insiders bet on Trump cancelling the tariffs at the last minute. If nobody panics, the tariffs will happen, so if I were them, I’d use the media to get the normies to “take one for the team” and panic without selling myself.

- In geopolitics, Iran has denied the false report that Russia has told Iran to accept the zero-enrichment “deal” by the Regime. I told you so. Why would Russia throw Iran under the bus now, of all times, when Iran defeated Israel and the US on their own?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-shifts-iran-stance-now-reports-supports-zero-enrichment-plan-backed-us

- Trump has said that he has a “major announcement” regarding Ukraine on Monday. My hunch is that he’s going to announce more weapons and money, which will do nothing except betray his supporters again, but after the Epstein cover-up, I don’t think Trump cares any longer.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-teases-major-statement-russia-coming-days , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-send-300m-worth-weapons-ukraine-drawn-pentagon-reserves

- Trump is also threatening to restart his failed war against the Houthis in response to the Houthis sinking another ship and launching more missiles at Israel. I’m sure the 2,000th air strike is going to do the trick this time.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-admin-teases-resumption-anti-houthi-airstrikes-after-ship-attacks , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-again-target-tel-aviv-israelis-plead-more-us-raids-yemen

- So the bottom line is like I said on the show, nobody wants war except the US and Israel, so if the US and Israel just stop, everything stops. However, I’m not seeing any evidence that the US and Israel are going to do anything but double-down. BRICS is trying not to defeat the Regime too hard because they’re trying to avoid provoking a nuclear war. I don’t see any path to victory for the Regime. They’re merely trying to act tough and not accept defeat. I’m still waiting for my false flag attack, too. Will we see a false flag this week? Maybe. We’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 11th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The normies are celebrating stocks and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs and I’m experiencing another round of what I call “the teddy bear picnic” where all the normie retards hold hands and dance around me while laughing and telling me that I’m wrong and don’t know what I’m talking about because “number go up”. Meanwhile, the “smart money” is warning about stagflation, tariffs, and the danger of overconcentration into the most risky sectors of the market (i.e., tech stocks and crypto). However, I’m used to this by now. It’s the eternal “we’ll see”. Look, I wish I could see the future and know for sure when the bubble would burst so I could gamble and play too, but I don’t bet my life savings on obvious bubbles, and I don’t trust the government’s competence.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-collar-has-saved-stocks-seasonality-vol-about-turn-higher , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-11

- What’s happening is that because every sector of the economy is broken, and tech stocks and crypto are the only things beating inflation, everyone is concentrating EVERYTHING into those sectors just to keep their head above water. This is the final act before the Stagflationary depression. When the crash comes, it will wipe everyone out, and they’ll write books about this someday. The question is, will the crash happen soon? I don’t know, but based on what I’m seeing, I’m strongly leaning towards Trump kicking the can down the road and propping up the markets and GDP coming in barely positive next month, which will reset the clock on the recession because you need two back-to-back negative quarters to have an official recession, so if GDP is positive that buys Trump another 6 months to keep the bubble inflation. Take a moment to appreciate that people are being destroyed economically due to the cost of living, and they’re forced to put all the money in the dumbest shit imaginable hoping to keep their head above waer, and they’ll be permanently wiped out when it crashes. It will be the biggest crash ever, bigger than the Great Depression, and we won’t be able to print our way out of it. It will be terminal. This is why you don’t manipulate the market like this in the first place, but what’s done is done. In summary, I expect GDP to cook the books and for GDP to be positive despite the tariffs, the student loans, and all common sense. This pushes the recession back to 2026 unless there is a black swan event that crashes the market before then. This is why I am personally not investing right now because even if the plan is for the government to kick the can down the road for another 6 months, random shit could happen, and investing in a known bubble means there is no safety net below you. If it crashes, you’re done forever.
source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-500-billion-wall-of-money-will-lift-the-stock-market-in-the-second-half-says-jpmorgan-838171fb

- If you want actionable advice, prepare for stagflation and buy metal if you haven’t already. Gold is at all-time highs, but silver is still cheap because central banks aren’t buying it, so it’s lagging behind gold. Don’t buy futures contracts; the futures market is broken. You need to buy the physical metal and just sit on it. Unlike stocks and crypto, there are actual real-world fundamentals behind real assets like metals. The same applies to all real assets like real estate, but most of us can’t buy and hold too many real assets because they either cost too much (like real estate) or they require specialized storage or are perishable and not suitable for holding their value long term (like energy and agriculture commodities).

- If you want to play in the markets, just ask yourself how much faith you have in the government as a percentage. Do you trust the government to not fuck this up 10%? 25%? 50%? Then invest that much of your life savings so that if the bubble pops and you lose that money, you’ll only lose the percentage of your life savings correlated to your faith in the government, so you deserve it.

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. Energy
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Materials
o 7. Utilities

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Information Technology
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Communication Technology

- I don’t think I could be any more disappointed in Trump. It’s not like I had very high expectations, but I at least hoped he was going to be smart about the economy with his background as a real estate investor and businessman. The only thing Trump cares about is Israel, and it’s just so disappointing.

- Let’s turn to Israel, because they’re steering the global ship at this point, and what matters to them dictates the direction of the entire world. In further confirmation that the ceasefire talks with Hamas are nothing but a stalling tactic for Israel, Israel is repeating its playbook with Iran by moving the goalposts and demanding more when the other side makes an offer. Hamas agreed to let hostages go, but now Israel wants total disarmament. Israel also confirmed that it’s going to put all the Palestinians into a literal concentration camp, but they pinky swear that it’ll be a nice one. They WANT Hamas to reject the offer because they WANT to keep killing them.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hamas-willing-release-10-living-hostages-israel-wants-total-disarmament

- I also now know what the Regime’s plan is for dealing with Iran, and boy, is it a doosie. Obviously, Israel can’t win a war of attrition against Iran because of Israel’s size, so how can the Regime beat Iran? They’re going to try to get the Sunni Arabs to go to war against Iran and the Shiites for them... WHILE they’re genociding Sunni Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank. Like I said, it’s a ballsy play because it assumes that Sunnis will rally to ISRAEL’S aid WHILE they are genociding Sunnis in broad daylight. The rumor is that they’re going to use Iraq to stage a Sunni/Shiite false flag to divert attention from Israel to the Shiite government of Iraq. The goal is to force the Sunni countries into an alliance of convenience with the Regime against Iran and the Shiites and to use them to isolate and weaken Iran.

- This plan is really stupid and has several obvious points of failure. Firstly, you have Israel literally killing tens of thousands of Sunni women and children and genociding the Palestinians in broad daylight for the entire Muslim world to see. This whole plan relies on the Sunnis forgetting about all of that and focusing on Iran and the Shiites because of some false flag attack in Iraq or something. Secondly, China has already mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran before. BRICS wants stability in the Middle East for multiple reasons, and won’t sit idly by while the Regime tries to engulf the region in a religious war just to benefit Israel. Thirdly, this plan assumes Iran will focus on fighting the Sunnis instead of just bombing the shit out of Israel. What if Iran sees through this plan, and just ignores the Regime terrorist proxies and instead starts bombing the shit out of Tel Aviv again? What’s Israel going to do then? The Regime isn’t going to give these Arab terrorists advanced missiles. Does anyone remember when Israel destroyed all of Syria’s military equipment rather than letting it fall into the hands of the HTS government? The Regime doesn’t trust its Arab pawns, so they’ll be relying on drones and low-tech terrorist tactics entirely, while Iran and its proxies have hypersonic missiles.

- Another vulnerability of this plan is that is relies on the loyalty of countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which aren’t known for their loyalty. Saudi Arabia killed the petro dollar, and Turkey is Turkey. If your master plan hinges on Turkey not betraying you, that’s not going to end very well for you.

- There is nothing else to talk about. The war in Ukraine continues as expected, but Israel will be the hill the Regime dies on, so I’m paying attention mostly to that. Forgive the last of sources, but this isn’t from any articles just rumors and shit I’m seeing on social media, and I’m just connecting the dots and forming a coherent through-line. Maybe Israel just attacks Iran directly and calls it a day, but I don’t think Israel is that stupid after how badly that turned out last time. However it’s crystal clear that Israel has learned nothing and that they are still pursuing victory so they have SOME kind of plan cooking, and we’ll just have to see how it goes, but if the rumors are true and they are pinning their hops of a Sunni Arab terrorist coalition to bring down Iran they’re going to be very disappointed.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 10th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat. The EU is backing off on more Russian sanctions to keep energy prices stable, so there’s that.
source: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Oil-Price-Cap-Debate-Stalls-EU-Russia-Sanctions.html

- In the markets, Bitcoin and Nvidia hit new all-time highs because absolutely nothing is happening that could be bad economically, and even if there were, Trump is going to bail Wall Street out, so it’s a sure thing.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-tech-leads-stocks-higher-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/easy-money-forced-buyers-melt-mirage-mind-trap-doors

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Healthcare

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Energy
o 4. Consumer Staples
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- I’m 99% sure that the insiders know that GDP will be positive next month and that the recession is postponed. Between the tariffs and wars, there is no other explanation for this kind of irrational price movement. I hope I’m wrong because re-inflating the bubble will push the crash into next year, which is an election year, but based on the price action, I’m fairly sure that the fix is in.

- In geopolitics, audio has emerged from a 2024 fundraiser that shows Trump threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing. Russia’s only reaction was to question whether the audio was real, while China just ignored it. The audio was from the campaign trail and is just Trump talking shit. It’s unclear why this audio is only surfacing now.
source: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/trump-told-donors-he-threatened-to-bomb-moscow-if-putin-attacked-ukraine-says-fundraiser-recording-report-3704664 , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/politics/video/trump-fundraiser-threats-moscow-beijing-src-digvid

- In Ukraine, Russia pounded Ukraine with over 700 drones. They also struck a high-value target with several hypersonic missiles, but it’s unclear what the target even was; however, it must have been something important to use multiple hypersonic missiles.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-sends-message-us-record-700-drones-missiles-ukraine-overnight , https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/lutsk-targeted-in-russia-s-massive-strike-1752048432.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-army-captures-two-more-settlements-3rd-straight-month-advance-ukraines-east

- Israel has launched a new ground offensive into Lebanon to attack Hezbollah. Sadly, the government of Lebanon blamed Hezbollah itself for Israel’s presence and holds them responsible when Israel attacks innocent civilians. I’ve also seen articles that Syria wants Tripoli in exchange for giving the Golan Heights to Israel. It looks like the Regime is going to take out Lebanon similarly to how they took out Syria and replace them with another Arab puppet. Not every country can be as based as Yemen, I guess.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon.html , https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-mission-libya-urges-immediate-de-escalation-tripoli-2025-07-09/ , https://www.newarab.com/news/syria-eyeing-tripoli-parts-lebanon-peace-israel , https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/8/the-us-asked-lebanon-to-disarm-hezbollah-how-did-lebanon-respond

- The bottom line is that Israel is currently attacking the smaller groups before turning back to Iran, which gives both sides time to prepare. Meanwhile the Regime is losing on all fronts while talking shit and pretending that they’re winning. This is likely another reason the government will postpone the recession because it would interfere with Israel’s war plans. By having a positive GDP quarter, it postpones the recession by at least 6 months.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 8th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing happened today. Between the BRICS summit and Emperor Netanyahu visiting Trump to have his dick serviced, both sides of the geopolitical struggle are otherwise indisposed at the moment.
source: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/07/07/netanyahu-visit-washington-negotiators-qatar-hamas-ceasefire/4421751819018/ , https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-tariff-threat-clouds-final-day-brics-summit-5225386 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/proposed-gaza-ceasefire-details-revealed-netanyahu-visits-white-house-monday

- The tariffs are returning, but won’t go into effect until August. They’re mostly targeted at Asian countries because they do a lot of business with China, which will only cause them to focus more heavily on the Chinese market anyway. So far, there hasn’t been a reaction from the market regarding the revelation that the tariffs are coming back. Perhaps this is another example of the smart money moving first and the media panicking 24 hours later once the smart money has already sold, or maybe the market magically doesn’t care about tariffs anymore? Who knows? Everything is fake and gay.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trade-tariff-recap-all-eyes-todays-12pm-signed-letters-announcement

- Oil closed higher today due to the Houthis sinking another ship in the Red Sea. The media largely ignored it, but those in the oil industry were paying attention.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-climbs-2-houthi-rebels-hit-second-greek-vessel-red-sea

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Gold
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Materials
o 7. Energy

- Notice how when the government is preoccupied, the markets move more predictably and rationally? Isn’t that crazy?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-stands-out-unwind-unwind-furious-short-squeeze-goes-reverse

- There’s nothing new to discuss regarding geopolitics. The BRICS summit ended today, and Trump committed to sending more weapons to Ukraine after sending weapons to Israel. Trump is talking shit though. We don’t have anything to send to Ukraine, and Israel takes priority. Trump is just being Trump and pretending that everything is fine and we’re winning our many simultaneous wars.
source: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/the-us-will-resume-weapons-shipments-to-ukraine-trump-says/

- The bottom line is that this was a slow news day between the BRICS summit in Brazil and the meeting between Emperor Netanyahu and Trump. Maybe tomorrow something will happen.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 7th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- We actually have some developments, which came much sooner than I expected. The Gaza negotiations are going nowhere, so I’m calling it now that they’re nothing more than a stalling tactic, especially when combined with what I’ll talk about next. Israel is clearly gearing up for round 2 against Iran, maybe as soon as this week.
source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/6/more-than-80-palestinians-killed-across-gaza-as-truce-talks-begin , https://www.axios.com/2025/07/06/trump-netanyahu-meeting-gaza-ceasefire-deal

- So what else is happening to make me conclude that Israel is gearing up for round 2 against Iran soon? Firstly, they attacked Yemen again, but the funny thing is that Yemen has received air defenses recently, and the Israeli jets weren’t expecting it, reportedly causing surprise in Israel by some sources, but it could just be propaganda, who knows?
source: https://www.ft.com/content/e08ab9e5-99be-449b-abe6-e65e5d18cf55 , https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-israel-launches-airstrikes-targeting-yemens-houthi-rebels-and-houthis-launch-missile-at-israel/ , https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-forces-launch-aggression-on-yemeni-ports--seized-gal , https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1942035544893988957 , https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1941904726758465718

- Secondly, Lebanon is on high alert. The new Lebanese government doesn’t want Israel to start bombing cities and killing civilians again, so they’re trying to negotiate with Hezbollah to disarm them and integrate them into the military, but Hezbollah isn’t agreeing, and Israel will likely attack Lebanon again very soon in preparation for their renewed war with Iran. They’re trying to neutralize the weaker players so they can focus entirely on Iran.
source: https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1941265766554407277 , https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-860082 , https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-struck-hezbollah-targets-in-southern-and-eastern-lebanon/ , https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1942052647462187318

- My hunch is that Israel will focus on removing Lebanon and Yemen before renewing the war with Iran, so I’m not saying that the war will kick off next week, but I expect movement towards that end next week and Israel to go to war with Iran sooner rather than later.
- The annual BRICS conference has begun in Brazil, but there isn’t much to report aside from BRICS launching a “guarantee fund” to boost investment in member nations. Trump announced that BRICS nations will have an additional 10% tariff slapped on their imports into the United States. These will be in addition to the tariffs already imposed previously. So much for the trade war with China being over.
source: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/brics-launch-guarantee-fund-boost-investment-member-nations-sources-say-2025-07-03/ , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/trump-says-countries-aligning-with-brics-bloc-will-face-extra-tariff.html

- In the markets, nothing has changed. Everyone is all in on tech stock and crypto because they expect the government to bail them out, so there’s no reason to diversify or invest conservatively. Go as big and stupid as possible because it’s heads, I win, or tails, the taxpayers lose.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-buying-and-participation-blow-away-all-records-h1-2025 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-big-beautiful-bubble-hartnett-warns-us-debt-will-exceed-50-trillion-2032 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weve-already-defaulted-zh-and-qtr-talk-inflation-deficits-broken-markets-and-fiscal

- There are some fears that tariffs might go back into effect on July 9th, which supposedly is the self-imposed deadline Trump set to work out a deal with various countries, but I fully expect Trump to extend that deadline, or just memory hole it entirely.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-asks-what-if-july-9-does-not-go-according-plan , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tchir-risk-stocks-administration-decides-it-was-correct-all-along-tariffs

- The bottom line is that we’re inching closer to round two in the war for Israel. I have no idea what Israel thinks they’re going to do this time that will change the outcome. If they nuke Iran, they’ll get nuked too. Nothing has changed, and Israel can’t win against Iran in an attrition war because Iran can absorb a lot more damage than Israel can, given its small size. Israel trusted entirely in its air defenses, which have proven ineffective. However, Israel doesn’t have time on their side, so they’re just going to “go for it,” I suppose. First, they hope to neutralize Yemen and Lebanon, so let’s see how that goes.

- The markets will remain fake and gay until the markets crash, and then we’ll see if Trump goes into bailout and stimulus mode or not. Until then, I expect nothing to change. Will the tariffs crash the market before the Q2 GDP is published? Probably not, especially not with Israel gearing up for another war. The US can’t afford to have a financial crisis when our “greatest ally” is defending itself from unarmed women and children, and non-existent nuclear weapons.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets will be closed tomorrow due to Independence Day, but job numbers came in better than expected due to government hiring. A few months ago, the government was laying people off, and it was killing the labor market, but now the government is hiring again to stabilize the labor market. Everything is welfare.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-sparks-domestic-labor-renaissance-native-born-workers-surge-record-high-foreign-born , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-gained-and-dollar-strengthened-after-strong-us-jobs-data-newsquawk-asia-pac , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blowout-june-payrolls-147k-jobs-added-smashing-expectations-unemployment-rate-drops-41 , https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1940756206760689747

- It’s not all sunshine and rainbows, though. The blowout job numbers caused investors to panic because we’re in a “bad news is good news” environment, so positive job numbers (even if it was government-driven) mean that rate cuts and bailouts are LESS likely.
source: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-070325/card/10-year-yield-breaches-200-day-moving-average-pQN99bugiL17sQdJrkzL

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Information Technology
o 2. Financials
o 3. S&P 500 Index
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Utilities
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Communications Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Gold
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. Bitcoin
o 7. Broad Commodities

- The telltale sign of either irrational stupidity or market manipulation is that the market goes up no matter what. If the fundamentals are dog shit, then bailouts and lower rates are right around the corner and number go up. If the job numbers come in better than expected and rate cuts and bailouts are less likely, the number STILL goes up because the recession is cancelled apparently.

- In geopolitics, no deal from Hamas so far, but they’re looking over the offer. Supposedly, Trump pinky promises to stop the genocide and not just let Israel do whatever it wants as soon as the hostages are released.
source: https://x.com/MENAUncensored/status/1940899666067181689

- No updates regarding the talks between Russia and Israel regarding Iran. I suspect they aren’t going well from Israel’s perspective because Russia has literally no reason to cooperate.

- Finally, a top Chinese diplomat said something telling today. He admitted that China cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine because China knows that they would be next for the United States, and they would prefer to keep the US distracted elsewhere. While this may not seem important, consider the entire BRICS alliance is in the same boat, particularly Iran. I said on the show that Russia and China have EVERY INCENTIVE to support Iran because Israel is far too important to the Regime to abandon, and by supporting Iran Russia and China not only cause the Regime to transfer weapons and material from Ukraine and Taiwan to Israel, but any casualties will not be Russian or Chinese. It bankrupts the Regime and allows Russia and China to become relatively stronger and more secure by keeping the Regime distracted in Iran. They also know that the Regime isn’t going to give up trying to destabilize and destroy BRICS, and can’t be trusted even if they offered a peace deal.
source: https://nypost.com/2025/07/03/world-news/china-cannot-allow-russia-to-lose-ukraine-war-foreign-minister-tells-eu-report/

- This is all bad news for the Regime because it means that their “divide and conquer” strategy isn’t going to work. They also can’t get BRICS to agree to a ceasefire to play musical chairs with their weapons and material. BRICS wins by pressing against the Regime on multiple fronts simultaneously and forcing the Regime to bankrupt itself and run out of missiles. China just admitted the game plan, but it’s obvious that was the plan all along. But confirmation is nice.

- The best they can hope to accomplish against BRICS is to bribe and peel off countries like India, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. However, the only actual member of BRICS that the Regime has been able to influence is India. Turkey and Azerbaijan are not BRICS members, although they did indicate interest in joining. However, since both of these countries have geopolitically aligned with the Regime against Russia, they can probably kiss joining BRICS goodbye. Also, as I predicted last year, China and Russia are moving away from BRICS due to India’s bullshit and shifting to focusing on SCO and other BRICS-like organizations that aren’t tainted by India trying to sabotage development from within for the Regime. India has nobody to blame but itself. Nobody forced them to betray their neighbors and trading partners. Unlike Turkey, nobody NEEDS India. Turkey is lucky to be the geographic bridge between Asia and Europe, so it can play on both sides. India is neither geographically nor strategically vital. Sure, they have a large population, but that’s it. Africa has a large population too, and nobody gives a shit about Africa.
source: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-sco-boycott-pakistan-terror/2679097/

- So the bottom line is that the markets are going to go up no matter what. Bad news is good news, and good news is good news. We’ll have to see what happens in Gaza and if Israel was able to make a deal with Russia. We’ll know based on Israel’s behavior. If they get tough on Iran, it means they made some kind of deal with Russia and expect Iran to lose its support from Russia, but China has no incentive to let the Regime win and pick BRICS apart, but I REEEAAAALLY doubt Russia is going to make a deal. I think the Regime ruined its chances of making deals altogether when it launched that sneak attack against Iran the first time. You screwed the pooch with that move.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 3rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, with production falling, but inventories rising.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-as-US-Crude-Gasoline-Inventories-Rise.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dallas-Fed-Oilfield-Inflation-Surges-as-Shale-Activity-Contracts-in-Q2.html

- The market is still in a “bad news is good news” buying spree. Analysts are warning we’re heading for a stagflationary recession and that buying everything is deranged, but here we are.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/june-payrolls-preview-anything-below-60k-we-get-stagflationary-recession-growth-scare , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-derangement-syndromes

- Microsoft announced 9,000 layoffs, but they’re also importing 14,000 Indians, so are they really cutting jobs, or are they simply replacing American workers with cheaper Indians?
soruce: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microsoft-cut-9000-jobs-second-major-layoff-wave

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Natural Gas
o 6. Energy
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. The US Dollar
o Everything else was up.

- The market is positioning for the bad jobs numbers and stagflationary recession to cause the FED and the government to go into bailout mode and reinflate the bubble economy with tens of trillions of new printed money.

- The only geopolitical update not discussed on the show today is that Putin spoke with France’s Macron and defended Iran’s nuclear program. However, Israel is also reportedly in talks with Russia, presumably to try to get them to throw Iran under the bus (again). Israel making a deal with Russia is literally the ONLY way they win at this point because Russia threatening to provide Iran with nukes is what ended the war the first time. I imagine the Jews are willing to give Putin anything he wants in exchange for letting Israel destroy Iran, but Putin would be a fool to make any sort of deal with Israel. Not only would it allow the Regime to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat at BRIC’s expense and show Russia an untrustworthy ally, but the Regime is not trustworthy whatsoever, especially Israel.
source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-israel-in-talks-with-russia-about-de-escalation-in-syria-irans-nuclear-program/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-defends-irans-right-nuclear-enrichment-first-macron-phone-call-3-years

- The bottom line is that we’ll have to see how these talks between Israel and Russia go because that will likely determine Israel’s next move involving Iran. The markets are a joke, but Trump has been signaling that he will prop the markets up, so you can’t really blame the normies for following the lead of the government when they’ve been manipulating the market to all-time highs for the last few years.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 1st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The US is preparing for its next round of airstrikes against Iran, or at least pretending to. The issue is that there is no way the US can destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Russia has already indicated that Iran would be given nuclear warheads if the US went to war with them, so what is the plan? You already lost, and you have no leverage or path to victory. I know Israel is mad about losing, but you should have thought of that before you attacked Iran in the first place.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-un-envoy-makes-clear-nuclear-enrichment-will-never-stop , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939900397268693364

- There is evidence that Trump is going to pressure Israel to seek peace in Gaza, but it could be another feint. I don’t think Israel is stupid enough to go to war with Iran again so soon after losing the first time, but the Regime has a habit of starting wars they can’t win, so I wouldn’t rule it out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-pivots-pressuring-israel-new-ceasefire-deal-gaza

- Meanwhile, in the markets, the stock market hits new all time highs for absolutely no fucking reason. In fact, Apple just posted negative guidance and said that their AI projects were a failure, and their stock price went up. JP Morgan is predicting a wave of new all-time highs.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-expect-wave-new-all-time-high-jpmorgans-trading-desk-breaks-down-bull-and-bear-cases

- What’s going you ask? Trump is pressuring Jerome Powell to cut rates… and that’s it. The market is expecting pre-emptive rate cuts and bailouts BEFORE Q2 GDP is released and the recession begins. I’ve been saying this for a while, but the market is primed to expect immediate bailouts and for taxpayers to bail out their greed, which explains why even when the tech companies are laying people off and reporting failure, their stocks hit all-time highs. It’s because “bad news is good news” due to Trump going to crash the interest rate and bail them out as soon as the market looks shaky.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-trump-now-going-broke-and-pump-economy-boom-grow-our-way-out-debt , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-it-hits-new-record-high , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-buy-stocks-8th-straight-week-pile-financials-dump-energy

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Gold
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Financials
o 7. Bitcoin

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- As already mentioned, the economy is shit, but the market is taking Trump’s pressure on the FED to lower rates as a sign that a bailout is just around the corner, hence tech companies hitting all time highs while crypto gains in the midst of shitty fundamentals. People will look back on this period and wonder what the hell people were thinking, probably sooner rather than later.

- The bottom line is that we’re in another “calm before the storm” period. Is the war with Iran going to restart? Is Trump going to re-inflate the bubble and bail out Wall Street? Everyone knows something bad and stupid is going to happen soon, but they’re betting on the government bailing them out. We live in the fakest, gayest, and most retarded of times.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 30th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The Israeli false flags may be occurring. Today, arsonists lit a brush fire in Idaho and set up an ambush to kill firefighters. Why firefighters? Why Idaho? Who can say? Maybe killing people in the city won’t motivate the political right, so they went after firefighters in Idaho. Also, a black Amazon van blew up in Washington, DC.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/everyones-been-shot-here-arsonists-set-wildfire-northern-idaho-open-fire-firefighters , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939405692236161052

- Israel is fighting back against all the Palestinian support on the Left by using gay pride parades to promote “Free Iran”.
source: https://x.com/therealmrbench/status/1939416167070011408

- Iran has begun cleaning the entrance of their damaged nuclear facilities and removing the IAEA cameras.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938955163747668272 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938922869603659786 , https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1939022178441122139

- Iran has also rejected the resumption of talks with the US. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran again, and Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. So much for the ceasefire. Hence, the false flags already mentioned.
source: https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1938647727526596654 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938642543622713636 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-denies-any-meeting-us-next-week-rejects-iaea-inspectors

- Attention is starting to shift back to Russia and China, with more false articles that China’s economy is collapsing and threats of 500% tariffs against BRICS.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-economy-spirals-no-end-sight-says-kyle-bass , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/deadly-russian-drones-strikes-have-increased-ukraines-odesa , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-theft-300bn-frozen-assets-price-worth-paying-break-wests-grip-global-finance , https://responsiblestatecraft.org/congress-sanctions-russia/

- In the markets, it’s doubtful that next week will be positive with renewed attention on Iran and talk of renewed fighting, along with false flags and terrorist attacks. However, I expect the normies to follow the headlines. If the headlines downplay the false flags and the prospect of a renewed war with Iran, then the markets will be positive. If Trump talks tough about bombing Iran again, or if there are more strikes, I expect the market to reverse.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-taking-over-fundamentals-goldman-trader-says-macro-noise-about-bite-again , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/only-america-would-so-much-capital-be-deployed-so-many-risks-and-unknowns

- The bottom line is that Israel is doing all it can to drag the US into a war with Iran despite the threat of BRICS providing Iran with nuclear warheads. Trump seems to be coming around and threatening Iran again, and Iran walking away from peace talks is a telling sign. I guess Tel Aviv didn’t learn its lesson the first time. Nothing has changed, so what is Israel going to do differently this time?
source: https://x.com/DI313_/status/1939204184143708324 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939152163931824420 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939269308041036283

Sorry the MMM is late, GSB was down last night.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 27th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.
- Today was a slow day after all the drama over the last few days, which is to be expected after a big Pay-Per-View event like Summerslam. Now that the Pay-Per-View is over, things are going to be slow for a while, especially since the US/Israel were the aggressors and BRICS doesn’t want any of these wars. If the US/Israel take some time off to recover, nothing happens, simple as.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-claims-victory-over-israel-which-almost-collapsed-1st-public-appearance

- The US and Iran are meeting next week, with Trump supposedly willing to make a deal to end sanctions. Again, as I explained yesterday, does this situation look like the US and Israel won? Pay attention to what people do, not what they say.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-meeting-iran-next-week-trump-says-while-suggesting-nuclear-deal-no-longer-necessary , https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-signals-us-may-ease-iran-oil-sanction-enforcement-help-rebuild-country-2025-06-25/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hoping-comprehensive-peace-agreement-iran-witkoff

- There are no updates regarding Ukraine and Russia since there is currently a NATO summit going on, with the only update being that Ukraine will NEVER be allowed into NATO.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-not-nato-my-job-keep-it-way-orban-tells-press-outside-nato-summit

- Hopefully, we’ll see ACTUAL peace talks with BRICS going forward, and we can finally rest easy knowing that WW3 isn’t going to happen and the Regime is taking an overdue L for once. The key test will be Gaza. If Gaza gets resolved in the next few weeks, we’ll know that it’s OVER over, and the Regime is accepting the loss. If there are no new peace breakthroughs then it’s likely the Regime is biding their time trying to come up with a new plan and we’ll likely see some more bullshit in the coming months. We’ll see.

- Now that the last Metroid is destroyed and the galaxy is at peace, let’s turn back to the markets as we slowly approach recession and a market crash:

- Energy is largely flat, with crude oil settling slightly higher and natural gas settling lower.

- Tech stocks hit new all-time highs as money poured back into Wall Street, which was briefly diversified for WW3. Analysts are warning that the stock market isn’t pricing in the weak job market and looming recession risks. Wall Street is positioning to expect bailouts in the event of a recession, but a lot of analysts are warning that the markets are wrong. Also, Q1 GDP was quietly revised downward “unexpectedly”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-being-given-warning-they-shouldnt-ignore , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/get-fearful-when-stock-market-gets-greedy , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q1-gdp-revised-lower-personal-spending-unexpectedly-prints-weakest-covid , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-futures-jump-set-new-record-high-vix-dollar-tumble

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Energy
o 3. Communication Technology
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. The VIX
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Gold
o 7. Real-Estate

- The market is pricing in more growth and inflation, not a recession, which means they expect bailouts and for Trump to keep the bubble going even as these tech companies (which are sitting at all-time highs) are laying people off left and right due to sluggish sales and negative consumer sentiment. Absolute madness.

- The bottom line is that while we avoided WW3, we’re still heading for a recession unless the government lies, but since we’re not at war, they do need to rip the band-aid off and let the market correct. However, we’ll know more throughout July as the “smart money” either buys or panics and sells once the government data is leaked to them. That’s the next shoe to drop. I’m now still open-minded about what Trump will do, but if we had moved forward with the war with Iran, we would be going into money printing and bailout mode, but since we dodged that hypersonic missile, we’ll have to see what happens.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 26th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big development of the day is that the Regime has settled on the fact that the war with Iran is over and has magically changed its tune regarding whether Iran’s nuclear site was destroyed or not. Despite the Pentagon, Mossad, and your own eyes and common sense telling you that the strike against Iran was unsuccessful, suddenly and unexpectedly, Israel and the CIA now confirm that Iran’s nuclear program was indeed destroyed. How? Why? What? It’s simple, the Regime has no choice. If Iran’s nuclear program WASN’T destroyed and the US and Israel failed, that would be the worst possible outcome for the Regime, so Iran’s nuclear program NEEDS to be destroyed so that the US and Israel aren’t embarrassed. Previously, Israel was likely hoping that by exposing Trump’s lie that Iran’s nuclear sites were destroyed, it could force the US to make a real strike against Iran and finish their desired “Regime Change” program, but Trump didn’t play along. Now that Israel and the CIA are agreeing with Trump and doing a 180, Israel can at least live to fight another day. The kayfabe is officially complete. I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacle. See you next Summer Slam!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-agrees-trump-says-systemic-destruction-irans-nuclear-capability

- What about Iran? They have no desire to go to war against the United States and will likely play along. Also, they are no longer cooperating with the IAEA, so there won’t be any Western verification of Iran’s nuclear program any longer. Many are openly questioning the credibility of the IAEA because Iran was acting fully within its rights and allowing inspections of its nuclear program, and they still got attacked and baited into a war that compliance with the IAEA was supposed to avoid. Iran is free to continue its nuclear program now as long as it plays along with Trump’s face-saving measure.
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-parliament-approves-bill-suspend-cooperation-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-2025-06-25/

- You may be beginning to doubt your own eyes and questioning your judgment in the face of coordinated gaslighting, so how do we know Trump is lying? The tell is the complete lack of a meltdown or any radioactive event whatsoever in Iran. Think about it for 5 seconds. If the US “obliterated” a nuclear facility and destroyed all that heavily enriched uranium, wouldn’t there be a meltdown and a radioactive contamination zone? Iran claims they moved the Uranium days ago, but if Iran still has the Uranium, then the US/Israel failed, so now suddenly Iran DIDN’T move the Uranium and it was destroyed, but didn’t cause ANY radioactive fallout or event whatsoever. It’s magical uranium.
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/dotcom-temp/vi-AA1Hggt0?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

- There are also Zionist sources I Israel and even Muslim sources denying Trump’s claim, but most official sources are falling in line because to admit that the US and Israel failed and gave up is to admit defeat to Iran. Again, Iran will play along with the Trump narrative and just keep their nuclear program secret going forward. It’s also unlikely that Israel will fuck with them again, which is the true test. Always watch what people DO rather than what they say.
source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/25/us-didnt-destroy-irans-nuclear-programme-heres-what-new-intel-says , https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkzmfbfngg , https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

- Another telling development is Gaza. Remember that what caused Israel to target Iran and provoke a war was Iran’s support of “the Axis of Resistance” due to Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians. If the Regime defeated Iran, then one would expect the Palestinians (as well as other resistance movements) to be abandoned. If Iran defeated the US and Israel, then one would expect to see momentum in Gaza shift towards the Palestinians as Israel abandons its plan to expand its territory and establish “Greater Israel” in the face of a defeat by Iran. Watch how the tone of the Gaza situation changes and resolves in the coming weeks for final proof of Iran’s victory. The New York Times is claiming that because Israel defeated Iran that they can agree to a truce in Gaza without looking weak. Do you see? DO YOU SEE?
source: https://www.dw.com/en/trump-says-great-progress-made-on-gaza-ceasefire-talks/live-73028690 , https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-iran-war-latest-06-25-2025-a18dbde29c3e564063fd0d9a9e84d0c1 , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html

- I predict that as the Regime digests their failed war against BRICS that you’re going to see many “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months as the Regime does the only sensible thing, which is to stop the wars and learn to get along. Freedom only exists in the tension between equals, if you’ll remember.

- Returning to the markets, World War 3 being cancelled is bearish for energy and military stocks, and bullish for tech stocks, only because everyone was shorting tech stocks in the face of a major war, but that doesn’t mean tech is a good investment. Even UBS is saying that the short squeeze rally has gone too far and it’s time to sell.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/nato-nasdaq-big-tech-defence-out , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-prop-short-squeeze-rally-has-gone-too-far-time-start-selling

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Information Technology
o 3. Crypto
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Gold
o 6. Bonds
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Consumer Staples
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Materials

- The market is currently swinging back from WW3 panic, so don’t take the movement today too seriously. Over the next week or two, the markets will settle back into their normal ebb and flow until we approach the Q2 GDP reveal and enter recession in August. BTW, the tariffs should be going back into effect soon, as Trump hasn’t announced any further delays or extensions, and no new trade deals have been reached. Also, Canada is openly talking about cutting trade with the US and focusing on trading with the EU, so that doesn’t bode well for these trade talks. The tariffs should seal the deal on the recession unless the government blatantly cooks the data.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/world/europe/canada-eu-security-defense-trump.html

- The bottom line is that with the War on BRICS effectively over, the last open question is what is Trump going to do when we enter recession? Since we won’t be at war, it’s the perfect opportunity to actually allow the recession to do its necessary function and purge the system of malinvestment and allow prices on stocks and homes to come back down to Earth. However, Trump also has a history of manipulating the markets to hook up his Wall Street buddies, so who knows? However, regardless of whether we go into a vanilla recession or a stagflationary depression, the worst is truly behind us with the threat of WW3 ended. We’ll see if I’m right about the “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months, but I predict peace will break out now that the US and Israel aren’t going to be provoking any more wars.

The Morning Constitutional: June 25th, 2025

/watch/the-morning-constitutional-june-25th-2025_Tvy9mfzQp3W3sM2.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 24th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The propaganda was thick today, so allow me to break the gaslighting and tell you what’s happening:

- Firstly, I was right… sort of. I was right about the kayfabe, but I was wrong about the details of the kayfabe. I thought there would be a “grand bargain” where Trump gets Iran to give up its nukes (that don’t exist) in exchange for a peace deal with Israel. I didn’t count on a fake and gay attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that did nothing, followed by a fake and gay attack on an American military base in Qatar, and then the announcement of a ceasefire. In the end it’s the same thing, and it would have been better if they did what I thought they were going to do because it’s obvious to anyone with eyes that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not destroyed and Trump is lying, so a “grand bargain” deal would have been far better than this fake gay shit.

- The Regime is flailing because they actually thought that the B2s and bunker busters would actually destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump bet big on that strike being successful and lost very similarly to how Israel bet big on their decapitation strike against Iran and lost. When will they stop underestimating BRICS nations? Anyway, what happened to all that “Regime Change” rhetoric from yesterday? It’s all been memory holed hasn’t it? It’s because of Medvedev’s tweet that Iran could be given nuclear warheads by other nations. That ended the Regime’s plans instantly and brought about the current “ceasefire” in less than 24 hours. Ironically, this simply proves that nuclear weapons are required and are the only defense against the Regime. Sad but true.

- Iran is denying that they agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, but there were reports that Iran has considered the strike on the American base in Qatar enough to consider their beef with America settled since the strike on their nuclear facilities didn’t do anything anyway. Perhaps Trump thought that Iran was including Israel as well, or maybe Trump is just talking shit. Why even knows any longer? At least the Strait of Hormuz isn’t being closed any longer, so maybe the government doesn’t have to manipulate the price.

- So the current geopolitical picture is a bit mercurial at the moment because Trump and Israel are having to rapidly change their plans for Regime Change in Iran due to Russia not only NOT throwing Iran under the bus, but openly talking of giving them nuclear warheads. A ceasefire (which Israel will inevitably violate) is the best possible scenario for the Regime at this point, but I don’t believe Iran is done bombing Israel yet. In fact, they have less than weeks’ worth of air defense missiles left, so they should keep up the pressure just like Russia is doing in Ukraine.

- However, as previously said, it’s clear that Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the US, so other than the attack on the one Qatar US base (which they told the US ahead of time they would strike while giving them time to evacuate) I doubt Iran will do anything else, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t about Iran being weak, but was done in coordination with their BRICS allies. Remember that BRICS doesn’t want WW3, and simply wants to stop the Regime’s war machine, which is why the current tactic is to exhaust their air defense supplies. They don’t want a slaughter that will cause a nuclear exchange, just to exhaust the Regime economically and militarily so they’ll collapse like the USSR.

- Since the Regime Change rhetoric has been memory holed and now everyone is hailing Trump’s brilliance for this non-existent ceasefire, there may not be a false flag. The purpose of the false flag was to gin up support for the war, but if Russia is going to give Iran nukes and the war is cancelled, there’s no point in launching a terrorist attack in the first place. It’s kind of hilarious to see Trump try to maintain this image as a brilliant deal maker and world leader in the face of his string of embarrassing defeats, but Trump has charisma, so at least there’s that.

- Shifting to the markets, the energy markets crashed on the news that a ceasefire was reached (which Iran denies, but shhhhh), with crude oil falling 7% and natural gas falling over 4%. Earlier today, Trump tweeted about keeping oil prices low, so the ceasefire announcement may have been related directly to this issue.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Orders-Oil-Sector-to-Keep-Prices-Low-After-Strikes-on-Iran.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sentiment-lifted-and-crude-craters-iran-delivers-symbolic-strike-empty-us-bases-newsquawk

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Real-Estate
o 3. Consumer Staples
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. The VIX
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Crypto

- The market moves based on what the TV says, not what’s true, so currently the market is moving based on the assumption that Trump destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities and they’re begging for a ceasefire with Israel because Trump played 4D chess or something. If the narrative changes tomorrow or if the realities of the battlefield contradict the propaganda, I expect the normies to panic again, but for now, they’re blissfully optimistic that Trump saved the day and Iran has surrendered.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-press-secretary-hints-iran-regime-change-claims-intel-said-weeks-nuclear

- The bottom line is that the Regime is losing strategically and its airstrikes are ineffective, but thankfully for the world, BRICS doesn’t want WW3 and is willing to de-escalate since time is on their side, and the more defeats the Regime is handed, the quicker de-dollarization momentum builds and the Regime falls once and for all. Nuclear war is the only way BRICS loses (not that the Regime wins, it’s a tie when you think about it). The challenge for the Regime is to spin their strategic defeats as victories using propaganda and gaslighting, but that’s better than using false flags and terrorism to try to overthrow the Iranian government, so it’s a win. BRICS doesn’t need to win the propaganda war (especially in the West) as long as it wins the actual war on the battlefield

- So while some may say that “nothing ever happens” because WW3 didn’t break out and we didn’t nuke each other, that’s not true. BRICS won by forcing the Regime to abandon its plans for war with Iran in less than 24 hours and pivot to this ceasefire narrative. The Regime takes another L, and since we won’t be at war, maybe we won’t “money printer go brrrrr” in a couple of months when we enter recession officially and the market crashes. We’ll see.