Monkey’s Market Minute: July 11th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The normies are celebrating stocks and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs and I’m experiencing another round of what I call “the teddy bear picnic” where all the normie retards hold hands and dance around me while laughing and telling me that I’m wrong and don’t know what I’m talking about because “number go up”. Meanwhile, the “smart money” is warning about stagflation, tariffs, and the danger of overconcentration into the most risky sectors of the market (i.e., tech stocks and crypto). However, I’m used to this by now. It’s the eternal “we’ll see”. Look, I wish I could see the future and know for sure when the bubble would burst so I could gamble and play too, but I don’t bet my life savings on obvious bubbles, and I don’t trust the government’s competence.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-collar-has-saved-stocks-seasonality-vol-about-turn-higher , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-11

- What’s happening is that because every sector of the economy is broken, and tech stocks and crypto are the only things beating inflation, everyone is concentrating EVERYTHING into those sectors just to keep their head above water. This is the final act before the Stagflationary depression. When the crash comes, it will wipe everyone out, and they’ll write books about this someday. The question is, will the crash happen soon? I don’t know, but based on what I’m seeing, I’m strongly leaning towards Trump kicking the can down the road and propping up the markets and GDP coming in barely positive next month, which will reset the clock on the recession because you need two back-to-back negative quarters to have an official recession, so if GDP is positive that buys Trump another 6 months to keep the bubble inflation. Take a moment to appreciate that people are being destroyed economically due to the cost of living, and they’re forced to put all the money in the dumbest shit imaginable hoping to keep their head above waer, and they’ll be permanently wiped out when it crashes. It will be the biggest crash ever, bigger than the Great Depression, and we won’t be able to print our way out of it. It will be terminal. This is why you don’t manipulate the market like this in the first place, but what’s done is done. In summary, I expect GDP to cook the books and for GDP to be positive despite the tariffs, the student loans, and all common sense. This pushes the recession back to 2026 unless there is a black swan event that crashes the market before then. This is why I am personally not investing right now because even if the plan is for the government to kick the can down the road for another 6 months, random shit could happen, and investing in a known bubble means there is no safety net below you. If it crashes, you’re done forever.
source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-500-billion-wall-of-money-will-lift-the-stock-market-in-the-second-half-says-jpmorgan-838171fb

- If you want actionable advice, prepare for stagflation and buy metal if you haven’t already. Gold is at all-time highs, but silver is still cheap because central banks aren’t buying it, so it’s lagging behind gold. Don’t buy futures contracts; the futures market is broken. You need to buy the physical metal and just sit on it. Unlike stocks and crypto, there are actual real-world fundamentals behind real assets like metals. The same applies to all real assets like real estate, but most of us can’t buy and hold too many real assets because they either cost too much (like real estate) or they require specialized storage or are perishable and not suitable for holding their value long term (like energy and agriculture commodities).

- If you want to play in the markets, just ask yourself how much faith you have in the government as a percentage. Do you trust the government to not fuck this up 10%? 25%? 50%? Then invest that much of your life savings so that if the bubble pops and you lose that money, you’ll only lose the percentage of your life savings correlated to your faith in the government, so you deserve it.

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. Energy
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Materials
o 7. Utilities

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Information Technology
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Communication Technology

- I don’t think I could be any more disappointed in Trump. It’s not like I had very high expectations, but I at least hoped he was going to be smart about the economy with his background as a real estate investor and businessman. The only thing Trump cares about is Israel, and it’s just so disappointing.

- Let’s turn to Israel, because they’re steering the global ship at this point, and what matters to them dictates the direction of the entire world. In further confirmation that the ceasefire talks with Hamas are nothing but a stalling tactic for Israel, Israel is repeating its playbook with Iran by moving the goalposts and demanding more when the other side makes an offer. Hamas agreed to let hostages go, but now Israel wants total disarmament. Israel also confirmed that it’s going to put all the Palestinians into a literal concentration camp, but they pinky swear that it’ll be a nice one. They WANT Hamas to reject the offer because they WANT to keep killing them.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hamas-willing-release-10-living-hostages-israel-wants-total-disarmament

- I also now know what the Regime’s plan is for dealing with Iran, and boy, is it a doosie. Obviously, Israel can’t win a war of attrition against Iran because of Israel’s size, so how can the Regime beat Iran? They’re going to try to get the Sunni Arabs to go to war against Iran and the Shiites for them... WHILE they’re genociding Sunni Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank. Like I said, it’s a ballsy play because it assumes that Sunnis will rally to ISRAEL’S aid WHILE they are genociding Sunnis in broad daylight. The rumor is that they’re going to use Iraq to stage a Sunni/Shiite false flag to divert attention from Israel to the Shiite government of Iraq. The goal is to force the Sunni countries into an alliance of convenience with the Regime against Iran and the Shiites and to use them to isolate and weaken Iran.

- This plan is really stupid and has several obvious points of failure. Firstly, you have Israel literally killing tens of thousands of Sunni women and children and genociding the Palestinians in broad daylight for the entire Muslim world to see. This whole plan relies on the Sunnis forgetting about all of that and focusing on Iran and the Shiites because of some false flag attack in Iraq or something. Secondly, China has already mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran before. BRICS wants stability in the Middle East for multiple reasons, and won’t sit idly by while the Regime tries to engulf the region in a religious war just to benefit Israel. Thirdly, this plan assumes Iran will focus on fighting the Sunnis instead of just bombing the shit out of Israel. What if Iran sees through this plan, and just ignores the Regime terrorist proxies and instead starts bombing the shit out of Tel Aviv again? What’s Israel going to do then? The Regime isn’t going to give these Arab terrorists advanced missiles. Does anyone remember when Israel destroyed all of Syria’s military equipment rather than letting it fall into the hands of the HTS government? The Regime doesn’t trust its Arab pawns, so they’ll be relying on drones and low-tech terrorist tactics entirely, while Iran and its proxies have hypersonic missiles.

- Another vulnerability of this plan is that is relies on the loyalty of countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which aren’t known for their loyalty. Saudi Arabia killed the petro dollar, and Turkey is Turkey. If your master plan hinges on Turkey not betraying you, that’s not going to end very well for you.

- There is nothing else to talk about. The war in Ukraine continues as expected, but Israel will be the hill the Regime dies on, so I’m paying attention mostly to that. Forgive the last of sources, but this isn’t from any articles just rumors and shit I’m seeing on social media, and I’m just connecting the dots and forming a coherent through-line. Maybe Israel just attacks Iran directly and calls it a day, but I don’t think Israel is that stupid after how badly that turned out last time. However it’s crystal clear that Israel has learned nothing and that they are still pursuing victory so they have SOME kind of plan cooking, and we’ll just have to see how it goes, but if the rumors are true and they are pinning their hops of a Sunni Arab terrorist coalition to bring down Iran they’re going to be very disappointed.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 10th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat. The EU is backing off on more Russian sanctions to keep energy prices stable, so there’s that.
source: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Oil-Price-Cap-Debate-Stalls-EU-Russia-Sanctions.html

- In the markets, Bitcoin and Nvidia hit new all-time highs because absolutely nothing is happening that could be bad economically, and even if there were, Trump is going to bail Wall Street out, so it’s a sure thing.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-tech-leads-stocks-higher-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/easy-money-forced-buyers-melt-mirage-mind-trap-doors

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Healthcare

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Energy
o 4. Consumer Staples
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- I’m 99% sure that the insiders know that GDP will be positive next month and that the recession is postponed. Between the tariffs and wars, there is no other explanation for this kind of irrational price movement. I hope I’m wrong because re-inflating the bubble will push the crash into next year, which is an election year, but based on the price action, I’m fairly sure that the fix is in.

- In geopolitics, audio has emerged from a 2024 fundraiser that shows Trump threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing. Russia’s only reaction was to question whether the audio was real, while China just ignored it. The audio was from the campaign trail and is just Trump talking shit. It’s unclear why this audio is only surfacing now.
source: https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/trump-told-donors-he-threatened-to-bomb-moscow-if-putin-attacked-ukraine-says-fundraiser-recording-report-3704664 , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/politics/video/trump-fundraiser-threats-moscow-beijing-src-digvid

- In Ukraine, Russia pounded Ukraine with over 700 drones. They also struck a high-value target with several hypersonic missiles, but it’s unclear what the target even was; however, it must have been something important to use multiple hypersonic missiles.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-sends-message-us-record-700-drones-missiles-ukraine-overnight , https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/lutsk-targeted-in-russia-s-massive-strike-1752048432.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-army-captures-two-more-settlements-3rd-straight-month-advance-ukraines-east

- Israel has launched a new ground offensive into Lebanon to attack Hezbollah. Sadly, the government of Lebanon blamed Hezbollah itself for Israel’s presence and holds them responsible when Israel attacks innocent civilians. I’ve also seen articles that Syria wants Tripoli in exchange for giving the Golan Heights to Israel. It looks like the Regime is going to take out Lebanon similarly to how they took out Syria and replace them with another Arab puppet. Not every country can be as based as Yemen, I guess.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon.html , https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-mission-libya-urges-immediate-de-escalation-tripoli-2025-07-09/ , https://www.newarab.com/news/syria-eyeing-tripoli-parts-lebanon-peace-israel , https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/8/the-us-asked-lebanon-to-disarm-hezbollah-how-did-lebanon-respond

- The bottom line is that Israel is currently attacking the smaller groups before turning back to Iran, which gives both sides time to prepare. Meanwhile the Regime is losing on all fronts while talking shit and pretending that they’re winning. This is likely another reason the government will postpone the recession because it would interfere with Israel’s war plans. By having a positive GDP quarter, it postpones the recession by at least 6 months.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 8th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing happened today. Between the BRICS summit and Emperor Netanyahu visiting Trump to have his dick serviced, both sides of the geopolitical struggle are otherwise indisposed at the moment.
source: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/07/07/netanyahu-visit-washington-negotiators-qatar-hamas-ceasefire/4421751819018/ , https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-tariff-threat-clouds-final-day-brics-summit-5225386 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/proposed-gaza-ceasefire-details-revealed-netanyahu-visits-white-house-monday

- The tariffs are returning, but won’t go into effect until August. They’re mostly targeted at Asian countries because they do a lot of business with China, which will only cause them to focus more heavily on the Chinese market anyway. So far, there hasn’t been a reaction from the market regarding the revelation that the tariffs are coming back. Perhaps this is another example of the smart money moving first and the media panicking 24 hours later once the smart money has already sold, or maybe the market magically doesn’t care about tariffs anymore? Who knows? Everything is fake and gay.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trade-tariff-recap-all-eyes-todays-12pm-signed-letters-announcement

- Oil closed higher today due to the Houthis sinking another ship in the Red Sea. The media largely ignored it, but those in the oil industry were paying attention.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-climbs-2-houthi-rebels-hit-second-greek-vessel-red-sea

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Gold
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Agriculture Commodities
o 6. Materials
o 7. Energy

- Notice how when the government is preoccupied, the markets move more predictably and rationally? Isn’t that crazy?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-stands-out-unwind-unwind-furious-short-squeeze-goes-reverse

- There’s nothing new to discuss regarding geopolitics. The BRICS summit ended today, and Trump committed to sending more weapons to Ukraine after sending weapons to Israel. Trump is talking shit though. We don’t have anything to send to Ukraine, and Israel takes priority. Trump is just being Trump and pretending that everything is fine and we’re winning our many simultaneous wars.
source: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/the-us-will-resume-weapons-shipments-to-ukraine-trump-says/

- The bottom line is that this was a slow news day between the BRICS summit in Brazil and the meeting between Emperor Netanyahu and Trump. Maybe tomorrow something will happen.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 7th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- We actually have some developments, which came much sooner than I expected. The Gaza negotiations are going nowhere, so I’m calling it now that they’re nothing more than a stalling tactic, especially when combined with what I’ll talk about next. Israel is clearly gearing up for round 2 against Iran, maybe as soon as this week.
source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/6/more-than-80-palestinians-killed-across-gaza-as-truce-talks-begin , https://www.axios.com/2025/07/06/trump-netanyahu-meeting-gaza-ceasefire-deal

- So what else is happening to make me conclude that Israel is gearing up for round 2 against Iran soon? Firstly, they attacked Yemen again, but the funny thing is that Yemen has received air defenses recently, and the Israeli jets weren’t expecting it, reportedly causing surprise in Israel by some sources, but it could just be propaganda, who knows?
source: https://www.ft.com/content/e08ab9e5-99be-449b-abe6-e65e5d18cf55 , https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-israel-launches-airstrikes-targeting-yemens-houthi-rebels-and-houthis-launch-missile-at-israel/ , https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-forces-launch-aggression-on-yemeni-ports--seized-gal , https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1942035544893988957 , https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1941904726758465718

- Secondly, Lebanon is on high alert. The new Lebanese government doesn’t want Israel to start bombing cities and killing civilians again, so they’re trying to negotiate with Hezbollah to disarm them and integrate them into the military, but Hezbollah isn’t agreeing, and Israel will likely attack Lebanon again very soon in preparation for their renewed war with Iran. They’re trying to neutralize the weaker players so they can focus entirely on Iran.
source: https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/1941265766554407277 , https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-860082 , https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-struck-hezbollah-targets-in-southern-and-eastern-lebanon/ , https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1942052647462187318

- My hunch is that Israel will focus on removing Lebanon and Yemen before renewing the war with Iran, so I’m not saying that the war will kick off next week, but I expect movement towards that end next week and Israel to go to war with Iran sooner rather than later.
- The annual BRICS conference has begun in Brazil, but there isn’t much to report aside from BRICS launching a “guarantee fund” to boost investment in member nations. Trump announced that BRICS nations will have an additional 10% tariff slapped on their imports into the United States. These will be in addition to the tariffs already imposed previously. So much for the trade war with China being over.
source: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/brics-launch-guarantee-fund-boost-investment-member-nations-sources-say-2025-07-03/ , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/trump-says-countries-aligning-with-brics-bloc-will-face-extra-tariff.html

- In the markets, nothing has changed. Everyone is all in on tech stock and crypto because they expect the government to bail them out, so there’s no reason to diversify or invest conservatively. Go as big and stupid as possible because it’s heads, I win, or tails, the taxpayers lose.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-buying-and-participation-blow-away-all-records-h1-2025 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-big-beautiful-bubble-hartnett-warns-us-debt-will-exceed-50-trillion-2032 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weve-already-defaulted-zh-and-qtr-talk-inflation-deficits-broken-markets-and-fiscal

- There are some fears that tariffs might go back into effect on July 9th, which supposedly is the self-imposed deadline Trump set to work out a deal with various countries, but I fully expect Trump to extend that deadline, or just memory hole it entirely.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-asks-what-if-july-9-does-not-go-according-plan , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tchir-risk-stocks-administration-decides-it-was-correct-all-along-tariffs

- The bottom line is that we’re inching closer to round two in the war for Israel. I have no idea what Israel thinks they’re going to do this time that will change the outcome. If they nuke Iran, they’ll get nuked too. Nothing has changed, and Israel can’t win against Iran in an attrition war because Iran can absorb a lot more damage than Israel can, given its small size. Israel trusted entirely in its air defenses, which have proven ineffective. However, Israel doesn’t have time on their side, so they’re just going to “go for it,” I suppose. First, they hope to neutralize Yemen and Lebanon, so let’s see how that goes.

- The markets will remain fake and gay until the markets crash, and then we’ll see if Trump goes into bailout and stimulus mode or not. Until then, I expect nothing to change. Will the tariffs crash the market before the Q2 GDP is published? Probably not, especially not with Israel gearing up for another war. The US can’t afford to have a financial crisis when our “greatest ally” is defending itself from unarmed women and children, and non-existent nuclear weapons.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets will be closed tomorrow due to Independence Day, but job numbers came in better than expected due to government hiring. A few months ago, the government was laying people off, and it was killing the labor market, but now the government is hiring again to stabilize the labor market. Everything is welfare.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-sparks-domestic-labor-renaissance-native-born-workers-surge-record-high-foreign-born , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-gained-and-dollar-strengthened-after-strong-us-jobs-data-newsquawk-asia-pac , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blowout-june-payrolls-147k-jobs-added-smashing-expectations-unemployment-rate-drops-41 , https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1940756206760689747

- It’s not all sunshine and rainbows, though. The blowout job numbers caused investors to panic because we’re in a “bad news is good news” environment, so positive job numbers (even if it was government-driven) mean that rate cuts and bailouts are LESS likely.
source: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-070325/card/10-year-yield-breaches-200-day-moving-average-pQN99bugiL17sQdJrkzL

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Information Technology
o 2. Financials
o 3. S&P 500 Index
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Utilities
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Communications Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Gold
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. Bitcoin
o 7. Broad Commodities

- The telltale sign of either irrational stupidity or market manipulation is that the market goes up no matter what. If the fundamentals are dog shit, then bailouts and lower rates are right around the corner and number go up. If the job numbers come in better than expected and rate cuts and bailouts are less likely, the number STILL goes up because the recession is cancelled apparently.

- In geopolitics, no deal from Hamas so far, but they’re looking over the offer. Supposedly, Trump pinky promises to stop the genocide and not just let Israel do whatever it wants as soon as the hostages are released.
source: https://x.com/MENAUncensored/status/1940899666067181689

- No updates regarding the talks between Russia and Israel regarding Iran. I suspect they aren’t going well from Israel’s perspective because Russia has literally no reason to cooperate.

- Finally, a top Chinese diplomat said something telling today. He admitted that China cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine because China knows that they would be next for the United States, and they would prefer to keep the US distracted elsewhere. While this may not seem important, consider the entire BRICS alliance is in the same boat, particularly Iran. I said on the show that Russia and China have EVERY INCENTIVE to support Iran because Israel is far too important to the Regime to abandon, and by supporting Iran Russia and China not only cause the Regime to transfer weapons and material from Ukraine and Taiwan to Israel, but any casualties will not be Russian or Chinese. It bankrupts the Regime and allows Russia and China to become relatively stronger and more secure by keeping the Regime distracted in Iran. They also know that the Regime isn’t going to give up trying to destabilize and destroy BRICS, and can’t be trusted even if they offered a peace deal.
source: https://nypost.com/2025/07/03/world-news/china-cannot-allow-russia-to-lose-ukraine-war-foreign-minister-tells-eu-report/

- This is all bad news for the Regime because it means that their “divide and conquer” strategy isn’t going to work. They also can’t get BRICS to agree to a ceasefire to play musical chairs with their weapons and material. BRICS wins by pressing against the Regime on multiple fronts simultaneously and forcing the Regime to bankrupt itself and run out of missiles. China just admitted the game plan, but it’s obvious that was the plan all along. But confirmation is nice.

- The best they can hope to accomplish against BRICS is to bribe and peel off countries like India, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. However, the only actual member of BRICS that the Regime has been able to influence is India. Turkey and Azerbaijan are not BRICS members, although they did indicate interest in joining. However, since both of these countries have geopolitically aligned with the Regime against Russia, they can probably kiss joining BRICS goodbye. Also, as I predicted last year, China and Russia are moving away from BRICS due to India’s bullshit and shifting to focusing on SCO and other BRICS-like organizations that aren’t tainted by India trying to sabotage development from within for the Regime. India has nobody to blame but itself. Nobody forced them to betray their neighbors and trading partners. Unlike Turkey, nobody NEEDS India. Turkey is lucky to be the geographic bridge between Asia and Europe, so it can play on both sides. India is neither geographically nor strategically vital. Sure, they have a large population, but that’s it. Africa has a large population too, and nobody gives a shit about Africa.
source: https://theprint.in/opinion/india-sco-boycott-pakistan-terror/2679097/

- So the bottom line is that the markets are going to go up no matter what. Bad news is good news, and good news is good news. We’ll have to see what happens in Gaza and if Israel was able to make a deal with Russia. We’ll know based on Israel’s behavior. If they get tough on Iran, it means they made some kind of deal with Russia and expect Iran to lose its support from Russia, but China has no incentive to let the Regime win and pick BRICS apart, but I REEEAAAALLY doubt Russia is going to make a deal. I think the Regime ruined its chances of making deals altogether when it launched that sneak attack against Iran the first time. You screwed the pooch with that move.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 3rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, with production falling, but inventories rising.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-as-US-Crude-Gasoline-Inventories-Rise.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dallas-Fed-Oilfield-Inflation-Surges-as-Shale-Activity-Contracts-in-Q2.html

- The market is still in a “bad news is good news” buying spree. Analysts are warning we’re heading for a stagflationary recession and that buying everything is deranged, but here we are.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/june-payrolls-preview-anything-below-60k-we-get-stagflationary-recession-growth-scare , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-derangement-syndromes

- Microsoft announced 9,000 layoffs, but they’re also importing 14,000 Indians, so are they really cutting jobs, or are they simply replacing American workers with cheaper Indians?
soruce: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microsoft-cut-9000-jobs-second-major-layoff-wave

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Crypto
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Natural Gas
o 6. Energy
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. The US Dollar
o Everything else was up.

- The market is positioning for the bad jobs numbers and stagflationary recession to cause the FED and the government to go into bailout mode and reinflate the bubble economy with tens of trillions of new printed money.

- The only geopolitical update not discussed on the show today is that Putin spoke with France’s Macron and defended Iran’s nuclear program. However, Israel is also reportedly in talks with Russia, presumably to try to get them to throw Iran under the bus (again). Israel making a deal with Russia is literally the ONLY way they win at this point because Russia threatening to provide Iran with nukes is what ended the war the first time. I imagine the Jews are willing to give Putin anything he wants in exchange for letting Israel destroy Iran, but Putin would be a fool to make any sort of deal with Israel. Not only would it allow the Regime to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat at BRIC’s expense and show Russia an untrustworthy ally, but the Regime is not trustworthy whatsoever, especially Israel.
source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-israel-in-talks-with-russia-about-de-escalation-in-syria-irans-nuclear-program/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-defends-irans-right-nuclear-enrichment-first-macron-phone-call-3-years

- The bottom line is that we’ll have to see how these talks between Israel and Russia go because that will likely determine Israel’s next move involving Iran. The markets are a joke, but Trump has been signaling that he will prop the markets up, so you can’t really blame the normies for following the lead of the government when they’ve been manipulating the market to all-time highs for the last few years.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 1st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The US is preparing for its next round of airstrikes against Iran, or at least pretending to. The issue is that there is no way the US can destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Russia has already indicated that Iran would be given nuclear warheads if the US went to war with them, so what is the plan? You already lost, and you have no leverage or path to victory. I know Israel is mad about losing, but you should have thought of that before you attacked Iran in the first place.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-un-envoy-makes-clear-nuclear-enrichment-will-never-stop , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939900397268693364

- There is evidence that Trump is going to pressure Israel to seek peace in Gaza, but it could be another feint. I don’t think Israel is stupid enough to go to war with Iran again so soon after losing the first time, but the Regime has a habit of starting wars they can’t win, so I wouldn’t rule it out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-pivots-pressuring-israel-new-ceasefire-deal-gaza

- Meanwhile, in the markets, the stock market hits new all time highs for absolutely no fucking reason. In fact, Apple just posted negative guidance and said that their AI projects were a failure, and their stock price went up. JP Morgan is predicting a wave of new all-time highs.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-expect-wave-new-all-time-high-jpmorgans-trading-desk-breaks-down-bull-and-bear-cases

- What’s going you ask? Trump is pressuring Jerome Powell to cut rates… and that’s it. The market is expecting pre-emptive rate cuts and bailouts BEFORE Q2 GDP is released and the recession begins. I’ve been saying this for a while, but the market is primed to expect immediate bailouts and for taxpayers to bail out their greed, which explains why even when the tech companies are laying people off and reporting failure, their stocks hit all-time highs. It’s because “bad news is good news” due to Trump going to crash the interest rate and bail them out as soon as the market looks shaky.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-trump-now-going-broke-and-pump-economy-boom-grow-our-way-out-debt , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-it-hits-new-record-high , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-buy-stocks-8th-straight-week-pile-financials-dump-energy

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Bonds
o 4. Gold
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Financials
o 7. Bitcoin

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. Consumer Discretionary
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- As already mentioned, the economy is shit, but the market is taking Trump’s pressure on the FED to lower rates as a sign that a bailout is just around the corner, hence tech companies hitting all time highs while crypto gains in the midst of shitty fundamentals. People will look back on this period and wonder what the hell people were thinking, probably sooner rather than later.

- The bottom line is that we’re in another “calm before the storm” period. Is the war with Iran going to restart? Is Trump going to re-inflate the bubble and bail out Wall Street? Everyone knows something bad and stupid is going to happen soon, but they’re betting on the government bailing them out. We live in the fakest, gayest, and most retarded of times.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 30th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The Israeli false flags may be occurring. Today, arsonists lit a brush fire in Idaho and set up an ambush to kill firefighters. Why firefighters? Why Idaho? Who can say? Maybe killing people in the city won’t motivate the political right, so they went after firefighters in Idaho. Also, a black Amazon van blew up in Washington, DC.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/everyones-been-shot-here-arsonists-set-wildfire-northern-idaho-open-fire-firefighters , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1939405692236161052

- Israel is fighting back against all the Palestinian support on the Left by using gay pride parades to promote “Free Iran”.
source: https://x.com/therealmrbench/status/1939416167070011408

- Iran has begun cleaning the entrance of their damaged nuclear facilities and removing the IAEA cameras.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938955163747668272 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938922869603659786 , https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1939022178441122139

- Iran has also rejected the resumption of talks with the US. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran again, and Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. So much for the ceasefire. Hence, the false flags already mentioned.
source: https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1938647727526596654 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1938642543622713636 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-denies-any-meeting-us-next-week-rejects-iaea-inspectors

- Attention is starting to shift back to Russia and China, with more false articles that China’s economy is collapsing and threats of 500% tariffs against BRICS.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-economy-spirals-no-end-sight-says-kyle-bass , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/deadly-russian-drones-strikes-have-increased-ukraines-odesa , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-theft-300bn-frozen-assets-price-worth-paying-break-wests-grip-global-finance , https://responsiblestatecraft.org/congress-sanctions-russia/

- In the markets, it’s doubtful that next week will be positive with renewed attention on Iran and talk of renewed fighting, along with false flags and terrorist attacks. However, I expect the normies to follow the headlines. If the headlines downplay the false flags and the prospect of a renewed war with Iran, then the markets will be positive. If Trump talks tough about bombing Iran again, or if there are more strikes, I expect the market to reverse.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-taking-over-fundamentals-goldman-trader-says-macro-noise-about-bite-again , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/only-america-would-so-much-capital-be-deployed-so-many-risks-and-unknowns

- The bottom line is that Israel is doing all it can to drag the US into a war with Iran despite the threat of BRICS providing Iran with nuclear warheads. Trump seems to be coming around and threatening Iran again, and Iran walking away from peace talks is a telling sign. I guess Tel Aviv didn’t learn its lesson the first time. Nothing has changed, so what is Israel going to do differently this time?
source: https://x.com/DI313_/status/1939204184143708324 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939152163931824420 , https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1939269308041036283

Sorry the MMM is late, GSB was down last night.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 27th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.
- Today was a slow day after all the drama over the last few days, which is to be expected after a big Pay-Per-View event like Summerslam. Now that the Pay-Per-View is over, things are going to be slow for a while, especially since the US/Israel were the aggressors and BRICS doesn’t want any of these wars. If the US/Israel take some time off to recover, nothing happens, simple as.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-claims-victory-over-israel-which-almost-collapsed-1st-public-appearance

- The US and Iran are meeting next week, with Trump supposedly willing to make a deal to end sanctions. Again, as I explained yesterday, does this situation look like the US and Israel won? Pay attention to what people do, not what they say.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-meeting-iran-next-week-trump-says-while-suggesting-nuclear-deal-no-longer-necessary , https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-signals-us-may-ease-iran-oil-sanction-enforcement-help-rebuild-country-2025-06-25/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hoping-comprehensive-peace-agreement-iran-witkoff

- There are no updates regarding Ukraine and Russia since there is currently a NATO summit going on, with the only update being that Ukraine will NEVER be allowed into NATO.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-not-nato-my-job-keep-it-way-orban-tells-press-outside-nato-summit

- Hopefully, we’ll see ACTUAL peace talks with BRICS going forward, and we can finally rest easy knowing that WW3 isn’t going to happen and the Regime is taking an overdue L for once. The key test will be Gaza. If Gaza gets resolved in the next few weeks, we’ll know that it’s OVER over, and the Regime is accepting the loss. If there are no new peace breakthroughs then it’s likely the Regime is biding their time trying to come up with a new plan and we’ll likely see some more bullshit in the coming months. We’ll see.

- Now that the last Metroid is destroyed and the galaxy is at peace, let’s turn back to the markets as we slowly approach recession and a market crash:

- Energy is largely flat, with crude oil settling slightly higher and natural gas settling lower.

- Tech stocks hit new all-time highs as money poured back into Wall Street, which was briefly diversified for WW3. Analysts are warning that the stock market isn’t pricing in the weak job market and looming recession risks. Wall Street is positioning to expect bailouts in the event of a recession, but a lot of analysts are warning that the markets are wrong. Also, Q1 GDP was quietly revised downward “unexpectedly”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-being-given-warning-they-shouldnt-ignore , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/get-fearful-when-stock-market-gets-greedy , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q1-gdp-revised-lower-personal-spending-unexpectedly-prints-weakest-covid , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-futures-jump-set-new-record-high-vix-dollar-tumble

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Energy
o 3. Communication Technology
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. The VIX
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Gold
o 7. Real-Estate

- The market is pricing in more growth and inflation, not a recession, which means they expect bailouts and for Trump to keep the bubble going even as these tech companies (which are sitting at all-time highs) are laying people off left and right due to sluggish sales and negative consumer sentiment. Absolute madness.

- The bottom line is that while we avoided WW3, we’re still heading for a recession unless the government lies, but since we’re not at war, they do need to rip the band-aid off and let the market correct. However, we’ll know more throughout July as the “smart money” either buys or panics and sells once the government data is leaked to them. That’s the next shoe to drop. I’m now still open-minded about what Trump will do, but if we had moved forward with the war with Iran, we would be going into money printing and bailout mode, but since we dodged that hypersonic missile, we’ll have to see what happens.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 26th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big development of the day is that the Regime has settled on the fact that the war with Iran is over and has magically changed its tune regarding whether Iran’s nuclear site was destroyed or not. Despite the Pentagon, Mossad, and your own eyes and common sense telling you that the strike against Iran was unsuccessful, suddenly and unexpectedly, Israel and the CIA now confirm that Iran’s nuclear program was indeed destroyed. How? Why? What? It’s simple, the Regime has no choice. If Iran’s nuclear program WASN’T destroyed and the US and Israel failed, that would be the worst possible outcome for the Regime, so Iran’s nuclear program NEEDS to be destroyed so that the US and Israel aren’t embarrassed. Previously, Israel was likely hoping that by exposing Trump’s lie that Iran’s nuclear sites were destroyed, it could force the US to make a real strike against Iran and finish their desired “Regime Change” program, but Trump didn’t play along. Now that Israel and the CIA are agreeing with Trump and doing a 180, Israel can at least live to fight another day. The kayfabe is officially complete. I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacle. See you next Summer Slam!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-agrees-trump-says-systemic-destruction-irans-nuclear-capability

- What about Iran? They have no desire to go to war against the United States and will likely play along. Also, they are no longer cooperating with the IAEA, so there won’t be any Western verification of Iran’s nuclear program any longer. Many are openly questioning the credibility of the IAEA because Iran was acting fully within its rights and allowing inspections of its nuclear program, and they still got attacked and baited into a war that compliance with the IAEA was supposed to avoid. Iran is free to continue its nuclear program now as long as it plays along with Trump’s face-saving measure.
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-parliament-approves-bill-suspend-cooperation-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-2025-06-25/

- You may be beginning to doubt your own eyes and questioning your judgment in the face of coordinated gaslighting, so how do we know Trump is lying? The tell is the complete lack of a meltdown or any radioactive event whatsoever in Iran. Think about it for 5 seconds. If the US “obliterated” a nuclear facility and destroyed all that heavily enriched uranium, wouldn’t there be a meltdown and a radioactive contamination zone? Iran claims they moved the Uranium days ago, but if Iran still has the Uranium, then the US/Israel failed, so now suddenly Iran DIDN’T move the Uranium and it was destroyed, but didn’t cause ANY radioactive fallout or event whatsoever. It’s magical uranium.
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/dotcom-temp/vi-AA1Hggt0?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

- There are also Zionist sources I Israel and even Muslim sources denying Trump’s claim, but most official sources are falling in line because to admit that the US and Israel failed and gave up is to admit defeat to Iran. Again, Iran will play along with the Trump narrative and just keep their nuclear program secret going forward. It’s also unlikely that Israel will fuck with them again, which is the true test. Always watch what people DO rather than what they say.
source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/25/us-didnt-destroy-irans-nuclear-programme-heres-what-new-intel-says , https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkzmfbfngg , https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

- Another telling development is Gaza. Remember that what caused Israel to target Iran and provoke a war was Iran’s support of “the Axis of Resistance” due to Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians. If the Regime defeated Iran, then one would expect the Palestinians (as well as other resistance movements) to be abandoned. If Iran defeated the US and Israel, then one would expect to see momentum in Gaza shift towards the Palestinians as Israel abandons its plan to expand its territory and establish “Greater Israel” in the face of a defeat by Iran. Watch how the tone of the Gaza situation changes and resolves in the coming weeks for final proof of Iran’s victory. The New York Times is claiming that because Israel defeated Iran that they can agree to a truce in Gaza without looking weak. Do you see? DO YOU SEE?
source: https://www.dw.com/en/trump-says-great-progress-made-on-gaza-ceasefire-talks/live-73028690 , https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-iran-war-latest-06-25-2025-a18dbde29c3e564063fd0d9a9e84d0c1 , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html , https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-gaza-israel.html

- I predict that as the Regime digests their failed war against BRICS that you’re going to see many “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months as the Regime does the only sensible thing, which is to stop the wars and learn to get along. Freedom only exists in the tension between equals, if you’ll remember.

- Returning to the markets, World War 3 being cancelled is bearish for energy and military stocks, and bullish for tech stocks, only because everyone was shorting tech stocks in the face of a major war, but that doesn’t mean tech is a good investment. Even UBS is saying that the short squeeze rally has gone too far and it’s time to sell.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/nato-nasdaq-big-tech-defence-out , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ubs-prop-short-squeeze-rally-has-gone-too-far-time-start-selling

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Information Technology
o 3. Crypto
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Gold
o 6. Bonds
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Consumer Staples
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Industrials
o 7. Materials

- The market is currently swinging back from WW3 panic, so don’t take the movement today too seriously. Over the next week or two, the markets will settle back into their normal ebb and flow until we approach the Q2 GDP reveal and enter recession in August. BTW, the tariffs should be going back into effect soon, as Trump hasn’t announced any further delays or extensions, and no new trade deals have been reached. Also, Canada is openly talking about cutting trade with the US and focusing on trading with the EU, so that doesn’t bode well for these trade talks. The tariffs should seal the deal on the recession unless the government blatantly cooks the data.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/world/europe/canada-eu-security-defense-trump.html

- The bottom line is that with the War on BRICS effectively over, the last open question is what is Trump going to do when we enter recession? Since we won’t be at war, it’s the perfect opportunity to actually allow the recession to do its necessary function and purge the system of malinvestment and allow prices on stocks and homes to come back down to Earth. However, Trump also has a history of manipulating the markets to hook up his Wall Street buddies, so who knows? However, regardless of whether we go into a vanilla recession or a stagflationary depression, the worst is truly behind us with the threat of WW3 ended. We’ll see if I’m right about the “diplomatic breakthroughs” in the coming months, but I predict peace will break out now that the US and Israel aren’t going to be provoking any more wars.

The Morning Constitutional: June 25th, 2025

/watch/the-morning-constitutional-june-25th-2025_Tvy9mfzQp3W3sM2.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 24th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The propaganda was thick today, so allow me to break the gaslighting and tell you what’s happening:

- Firstly, I was right… sort of. I was right about the kayfabe, but I was wrong about the details of the kayfabe. I thought there would be a “grand bargain” where Trump gets Iran to give up its nukes (that don’t exist) in exchange for a peace deal with Israel. I didn’t count on a fake and gay attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities that did nothing, followed by a fake and gay attack on an American military base in Qatar, and then the announcement of a ceasefire. In the end it’s the same thing, and it would have been better if they did what I thought they were going to do because it’s obvious to anyone with eyes that Iran’s nuclear facilities were not destroyed and Trump is lying, so a “grand bargain” deal would have been far better than this fake gay shit.

- The Regime is flailing because they actually thought that the B2s and bunker busters would actually destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump bet big on that strike being successful and lost very similarly to how Israel bet big on their decapitation strike against Iran and lost. When will they stop underestimating BRICS nations? Anyway, what happened to all that “Regime Change” rhetoric from yesterday? It’s all been memory holed hasn’t it? It’s because of Medvedev’s tweet that Iran could be given nuclear warheads by other nations. That ended the Regime’s plans instantly and brought about the current “ceasefire” in less than 24 hours. Ironically, this simply proves that nuclear weapons are required and are the only defense against the Regime. Sad but true.

- Iran is denying that they agreed to a ceasefire with Israel, but there were reports that Iran has considered the strike on the American base in Qatar enough to consider their beef with America settled since the strike on their nuclear facilities didn’t do anything anyway. Perhaps Trump thought that Iran was including Israel as well, or maybe Trump is just talking shit. Why even knows any longer? At least the Strait of Hormuz isn’t being closed any longer, so maybe the government doesn’t have to manipulate the price.

- So the current geopolitical picture is a bit mercurial at the moment because Trump and Israel are having to rapidly change their plans for Regime Change in Iran due to Russia not only NOT throwing Iran under the bus, but openly talking of giving them nuclear warheads. A ceasefire (which Israel will inevitably violate) is the best possible scenario for the Regime at this point, but I don’t believe Iran is done bombing Israel yet. In fact, they have less than weeks’ worth of air defense missiles left, so they should keep up the pressure just like Russia is doing in Ukraine.

- However, as previously said, it’s clear that Iran doesn’t want to go to war with the US, so other than the attack on the one Qatar US base (which they told the US ahead of time they would strike while giving them time to evacuate) I doubt Iran will do anything else, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t about Iran being weak, but was done in coordination with their BRICS allies. Remember that BRICS doesn’t want WW3, and simply wants to stop the Regime’s war machine, which is why the current tactic is to exhaust their air defense supplies. They don’t want a slaughter that will cause a nuclear exchange, just to exhaust the Regime economically and militarily so they’ll collapse like the USSR.

- Since the Regime Change rhetoric has been memory holed and now everyone is hailing Trump’s brilliance for this non-existent ceasefire, there may not be a false flag. The purpose of the false flag was to gin up support for the war, but if Russia is going to give Iran nukes and the war is cancelled, there’s no point in launching a terrorist attack in the first place. It’s kind of hilarious to see Trump try to maintain this image as a brilliant deal maker and world leader in the face of his string of embarrassing defeats, but Trump has charisma, so at least there’s that.

- Shifting to the markets, the energy markets crashed on the news that a ceasefire was reached (which Iran denies, but shhhhh), with crude oil falling 7% and natural gas falling over 4%. Earlier today, Trump tweeted about keeping oil prices low, so the ceasefire announcement may have been related directly to this issue.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Orders-Oil-Sector-to-Keep-Prices-Low-After-Strikes-on-Iran.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sentiment-lifted-and-crude-craters-iran-delivers-symbolic-strike-empty-us-bases-newsquawk

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Real-Estate
o 3. Consumer Staples
o 4. Materials
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. The VIX
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Crypto

- The market moves based on what the TV says, not what’s true, so currently the market is moving based on the assumption that Trump destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities and they’re begging for a ceasefire with Israel because Trump played 4D chess or something. If the narrative changes tomorrow or if the realities of the battlefield contradict the propaganda, I expect the normies to panic again, but for now, they’re blissfully optimistic that Trump saved the day and Iran has surrendered.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-press-secretary-hints-iran-regime-change-claims-intel-said-weeks-nuclear

- The bottom line is that the Regime is losing strategically and its airstrikes are ineffective, but thankfully for the world, BRICS doesn’t want WW3 and is willing to de-escalate since time is on their side, and the more defeats the Regime is handed, the quicker de-dollarization momentum builds and the Regime falls once and for all. Nuclear war is the only way BRICS loses (not that the Regime wins, it’s a tie when you think about it). The challenge for the Regime is to spin their strategic defeats as victories using propaganda and gaslighting, but that’s better than using false flags and terrorism to try to overthrow the Iranian government, so it’s a win. BRICS doesn’t need to win the propaganda war (especially in the West) as long as it wins the actual war on the battlefield

- So while some may say that “nothing ever happens” because WW3 didn’t break out and we didn’t nuke each other, that’s not true. BRICS won by forcing the Regime to abandon its plans for war with Iran in less than 24 hours and pivot to this ceasefire narrative. The Regime takes another L, and since we won’t be at war, maybe we won’t “money printer go brrrrr” in a couple of months when we enter recession officially and the market crashes. We’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 23rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The strike on Iran was a complete failure as I expected. Satellite imagery of the site showed only superficial damage and absolutely no indication that the site was even damaged beyond the surface-level entrance. Analysts were speculating that Trump told Iran the strike was coming and the strike was intentionally weak to give Israel and Iran an “off-ramp” to de-escalate similar to what happened with the Houthis. Trump would talk shit and claim he won, Iran plays along, and the war ends with the US and Israel claiming victory but not doing anything. However, Iran decided not to play along after the Defense Minister flew to Moscow and met with the Russians.
source: https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1936731483252691139 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936866883094851981 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936776086903554379 , https://x.com/realstewpeters/status/1936934812457279667

- Iran is in the process of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but oil futures only spiked for less than 30 minutes when the market opened before crashing which reeks of market manipulation. If you needed a reminder as to why the futures market is broken, there it is.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936782901380526427 , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1936922839749370340 , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1936907642535891148 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936827512509612129

- The Regime expects Iran to de-escalate similar to the Houthis (which is over too BTW) and is trying to double down and get Iran to cuck. The UK’s PM is saying that if Iran attacks the US bases NATO will go to war with Iran.
source: https://news.sky.com/story/an-iranian-attack-on-us-military-bases-could-draw-the-uk-into-the-conflict-13387191 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936758045943697682

- Dimitry Medvedev has stated that there are “a number of countries” ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads. As I previously said, Israel is the hill the Regime will die on, and they’ve already moved more air defenses and radars into Israel to replace that which was lost. Using Iran to concentrate and deplete the Regime’s military resources is the smartest move Russia and China could possibly make, and it’s a no-brainer.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1936743471689175344 , https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1936731483252691139

- If you’re wondering what the next move by the Regime is, it’s “Iranian Sleeper cells” (i.e. an Israeli false flag to get Americans on board with WW3). I guess they thought Iran would cuck and it wouldn’t be necessary, but be careful out there.
source: https://x.com/JOKAQARMY1/status/1936749621361197553

- I’ve said this concerning Ukraine, but since this involves Israel, it’s even more true, the Regime wants its war sooner rather than later because time isn’t on their side. BRICS wants to run out the clock and win by default, and the Regime isn’t going to let that happen. They thought Russia was the weak link in BRICS and lost in Ukraine, so they’ve pivoted to Iran as the weak link. Iran has to win on the battlefield. There won’t be any actual negotiations or peace. Any meetings or overtures of peace will simply be a rouse meant to launch more attacks against Iran. Iran understands this. Russia understands this. China understands this.

- BRICS will leverage the UN and other international bodies to build the case for the moral and legal legitimacy of multipolarity over the Regime. While this doesn’t seem as important as victory on the battlefield, this is important to establish the new multipolar model of the world going forward once the dust settles. Israel has already been convicted of war crimes, and America has violated several themselves by attacking Iran unprovoked for their peaceful nuclear program which was within the bounds of and inspected by relevant international bodies like the IAEA. This is “the long game”, the overthrowing of the “Boomer Truth” of WW2 into a new founding myth.
source: https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1936731425245450383 , https://x.com/upholdreality/status/1936949338581905658

- As previously mentioned, oil jumped when the markets opened due to the very obvious threat of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, but crashed within 30 minutes as if nothing was happening. Fake and gay. The whole market is just a rigged casino and we’re heading straight for a Stagflationary depression because of it.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Impact-After-US-Attacks-Iran-Facilities.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Rises-3-After-US-Bombs-Iranian-Nuclear-Sites.html

- Bitcoin fell below $100,000 after the attack on Iran, but it too has recovered over a single day, so I guess everything is fine, and starting a war with Iran will have absolutely no negative consequences whatsoever. The Straight of Hormuz being closed means nothing. I’m unsure if the market is confident that Iran will cuck and tensions will escalate because that was the original plan and the government insiders are acting on expired orders or if the market is just being manipulated. I can see why the oil market could be manipulated, but not Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn’t matter so it’s not worth the government’s effort to manipulate it. Very strange.
source: https://decrypt.co/326424/bitcoin-rebounds-markets-price-short-lived-iran-conflict

- The bottom line is that the current paradigm is that Trump destroyed the Iranian nuclear sites and Iran is returning to eh negotiating table in defeat when the reality is the complete opposite. I guess propaganda is effective and we’ll have to wait for the facts on the ground to pierce through the propaganda similar to Ukraine before the normies begin noticing. I frankly don’t know how long this will last, but that largely depends on what Iran and Russia do. I don’t expect China to get directly involved at this stage.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 20th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Today was “Juneteenth” which is a made-up black holiday like Kwanza, but the markets were closed. However, since I didn’t give you guys a newsletter yesterday because some retard ran his car into my neighborhood’s internet junction box, I’ll give you that newsletter now that my internet has been restored.

- The markets were positive today because Trump announced a 2-week pause on the War with Iran. In other news, the tariffs suspension is about to expire and the only trade deal that has been reached is with the UK, so expect another “extension”. Trump talks a lot of shit, but he is clearly afraid to cause the market to crash and always cucks out. In fact, in case you didn’t know, Trump has been called TACO Trump which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, which is an apt label.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/missile-causes-extensive-damage-israeli-hospital-idf-bombs-inactive-iranian-heavy , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/friday-brings-biggest-june-options-expiration-ever-0-dte-volumes-hit-record-high

- The Zionists and neocons are trying to “sell” the war to MAGA while the Left has already reorganized from their “no kings” nonsense to marching for peace and supporting Iran. The Zionists/Neocons are acting like these protests are fake because they happened too suddenly, but they’re the same protestors who were supporting Gaza last week, so they were already primed to be against Israel. It doesn’t take a huge AstroTurf campaign to turn pro-Palestinian protestors into pro-Iranian protestors when Israel is the aggressor in both cases.

- Trump’s delay of the War with Iran caused a short squeeze at optioned expired which forced all the normies shorting stocks to buy stocks to close out their contracts and lose money. Don’t you just love the rigged casino? However, energy prices aren’t budging and Iran is talking about closing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has no way to stop Iran from causing a global energy crisis if they choose to. His threats mean nothing to Iran, but Trump won’t stop Israel because it’s now or never.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Inch-Higher-as-Trump-Social-Media-Tirade-Fuels-Speculation.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Jump-But-Middle-East-Oil-Keeps-Flowing-Uninterrupted.html , https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-Threatens-To-Leave-Nuclear-Treaty-and-Close-Strait-of-Hormuz.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-or-die-dominates-shorts-smoked-europe-starts-crack , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/only-16-americans-19-trump-voters-want-us-join-israels-war-iran

- Russia has come out in support of Iran (obviously) and warned the US not to get involved or there will be “unpredictable negative consequences”, but this is only the public-facing remarks. Behind the scenes, I’m sure there is no dialogue coming from Russia. Putin admitted in a recent interview that he’s talked to both Trump and Netanyahu. If you listen to what he’s saying and read slightly in between the lines he’s telling Trump and Netanyahu that regime change in Iran is impossible and they need to stop and initiate a ceasefire and a peaceful off-ramp. However, Israel and the US just used peace negotiations as a subterfuge to launch an unprovoked sneak attack on Iran and openly bragged about it until Iran started bombing Tel Aviv.
source: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/GWvZIlYVRo0 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-warns-against-us-intervention-iran-tells-israeli-leaders-come-your-senses

- So the bottom line is that Trump is trying to hold the markets up as he figures out how to move forward after Israel underestimated Iran and burned all diplomatic bridges. The only tool I see the Regime using at this point is a false flag. I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened. They have no options other than to admit defeat, but the market will crash either way. We’re just watching the Regime slowly realize they’ve been checkmated. Maybe they’ll go with the Samson Option and maybe not. It doesn’t matter.

- Since Israel is losing they need to seek a ceasefire, but after the stunt Israel pulled, they don’t deserve one, The UN Security Council may have to be utilized since America and Israel can’t be trusted to abide by their agreements whatsoever.

The Morning Constitutional: June 18th, 2025

/watch/2025-06-18-08-00-59_tzAvraVK1VQ4y84.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 17th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I’m not going to bury the lead. I believe that the final phase of the Regime’s plan to bring the world to nuclear war in order to get Russia and China to cuck and let the Regime win is playing out right now. Originally Israel was going to nuke Iran, but Pakistan said that they will nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran, so the US is now threatening to nuke Iran instead, which brings Russia and China into the conflict. I don’t know what’s being said behind closed doors, but the Regime is out of options, and the good news is that BRICS doesn’t want nuclear war. Today Iran only launched 5 missiles. Some people are claiming that Iran is out of missiles, but that’s nonsense. Iran is very likely in very important talks with its partners about how to proceed as the world could literally be destroyed because of Jews.

- It also appears the false flag or assassination of Trump may be off since everyone is talking about it and expecting it. The more likely scenario is that the USS Nimitz is being moved to the Persian Gulf. This aircraft carrier is 50 years old and scheduled to be decommissioned next year, so it’s the optimal target to use as a false flag against Iran. However, if Trump wasn’t dutifully doing Israel’s bidding, I have no doubt they would assassinate him as well.

- Related to the Nimitz, it will arrive on the 18th, which is just after options expire for June. Today the Wall Street Journal flat out lied and published articles about how Iran is scared and begging to make a deal to prop the markets up so that the “smart money “ (i.e. politically connected insiders) could get out of the market, which is also why the false flag will happen on the 18th or after which allows the insiders to avoid taking losses when the market crashes.

- You’ll notice that I’m not posting a lot of links and sources, and that’s because this is mostly based on breaking news tweets found on social media, and my own analysis and thought process linking bread-crumbs. This is what I believe is happening in real time, and we’ll know by the end of the week how this all ends. However, don’t be discouraged, the Regime cannot win regardless (unless Russia and China cuck, which they won’t). In a worst-case scenario, we have a nuclear war and we all die, but that’s not the Regime winning, it’s more of a “tie” if you think about it because they’ll die too.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-inflicts-more-punishment-claims-new-method-caused-idf-systems-target-each-other , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zh-geopolitical-week-ahead-no-going-back-hellish-night-ahead-iran-israel , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-bid-across-board-monday-notable-outperformance-nasdaq-newsquawk-asia-pac . https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/ww3-ww3-stocks-oil-gold-crypto-swing-wildly-mideast-headline-roulette

- As previously mentioned, the Wall Street Journal lied about Iran begging for peace in order to prop up the markets, so the markets did pretty well today all things considered, but it’s only because the insiders need time to unwind their positions before the crash.
source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-battered-iran-signals-it-wants-to-de-escalate-hostilities-with-israel-and-negotiate-9feab4ae

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Communications Technology
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Consumer Discretionary
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Gold
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Utilities
o 7. Healthcare

- The market is being overtly manipulated in order to help the rich political insiders time to sell. The Regime grossly underestimated Iran (just like they underestimated Russia and China), and now they’re panicking and just overtly lying and manipulating the markets to protect themselves. The good news is that this situation should be resolved this week.

- My prediction is that Iran will agree to a ceasefire with Israel and tensions will cool, but this won’t be a victory for the Regime, and they will have to play their strongest card (i.e. threatening nuclear war) simply to pull Israel’s ass out of the fire they lit themselves. This is a desperate move of a weakened empire that keeps overestimating themselves and underestimating their opponents. The world will notice that Russia defeated NATO, the Houthis defeated the US, and Iran defeated Israel. There will be no coming back from this, and this is the BEST CASE SCENARIO possible for the Regime. The best outcome they can accomplish is to take a permanent and major hit to their international reputation simply to bail Israel out of the consequences of their own actions.

- The worst case scenario is that Russia and China cuck, but that simply won’t happen. There was a time where I was on the fence about what Russia and China would do, but based on how Russia and China have conducted themselves in recently months, I have no doubt that Russia and China will not cuck, Trump will. Trump will fold because he doesn’t actually want a war, but Israel REAAAAAALLLLY fucked up by attacking Iran, and Trump needs to save them. I’m watching events unfold closely and will keep you updated.

- The bottom line is that the Regime is dying, and they’re playing their final Trump card (get it? Trump card!) but they’ve already lost and the game is already over. It’s worth noting again that BRICS never wanted a war, only the US and Israel are warmongering because they know time isn’t on their side, so peace equals defeat for the Regime because the US and Israel will only be weaker going forward from here. We’re still heading straight for a recession, but if Trump actually starts a war, we’ll fall off a cliff.

- On a final note, I can’t see the future, I can only speculate based on what I perceive to be the smartest path forward. There is a chance that Trump goes to war with Iran on behalf of Israel and loses everything, but I don’t see that happening. The Regime aren’t going to get themselves nuked because they won’t be able to enjoy all the money they’ve stolen if they’re dead.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 16th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Lots of updates, we’ve officially left the “nothing ever happens” era:

- Since Iran’s air defenses have been restored, Israeli air strikes have ended and Israel will not enter Iranian air space and is forced to launch missiles form Iraqi airspace and rely on terrorist tactics from within Iran using sleeper agents (mostly drones, sabotage and car bombs). Needless to say, this isn’t enough to bring down the Iranian government, and Iran is already ferreting out the terrorist cells, and estimate they’ve eliminated 80% of the terrorist cells already. Israel has no other cards to play other than “the Samson Option” to threaten Iran.
source: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934390630593028382 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934365587263623563 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934356544155537533 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934269154657505412 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1934249591207059765

- Iran is launching another wave of missiles right now and they’re getting through despite multiple countries helping Israel with their air defenses. Iran says they have enough missiles to bomb Israel every day for 6 months. Israel is begging for help at this point, but the only country that’s answered the call is France, big oof.
source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/france-president-emmanual-macron-says-iran-destabilised-region-france-will-defend-israel-8663029 , https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/Jun/14/iran-warns-us-uk-france-against-helping-stop-retaliatory-strikes-on-israel

- The UN conference on Palestinian statehood was cancelled due to Israel attacking Iran. Was this why Israel launched the attack when they did, to derail the conversation about the two-state solution? Boy did they leap out of the frying pan and into the fire with that move.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/14/world/middleeast/palestinian-statehood-conference-postponed-israel-iran.html

- Finally, as we await the inevitable terrorist attack by Israel to get the US into the war, Netanyahu is talking about an assassination plot by Iran to kill Trump. Would Israel really assassinate Trump? Actually, it makes more sense than you might think. Now that Trump used peace talks as a rouse to lure Iran into a false sense of security, nobody will ever trust Trump’s “diplomacy” again, but if Trump is removed and replaced with JD Vance, then maybe BRICS will give the US a second chance and allow the regime to play the same trick again. Trump has been a massive failure on all fronts anyway, so he’s outlived his usefulness. Israel assassinating him would allow Trump to serve one final purpose.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hints-possible-us-entry-war-amid-stepped-israeli-daytime-attacks-tehran , https://x.com/ExxAlerts/status/1934331564013629621

- Iran isn’t stupid and knows that the Regime will organize against them, but you’re not hearing much just like you’re not hearing much from Russia or China. Behind the scenes everyone knows that if countries start making public declarations that this can spiral out into WW3, which the Regime cannot win by their own admission. Again, I didn’t think that Israel would attack Iran because this exact thing would happen, and now Israel is “finding out”.
source: https://x.com/Kahlissee/status/1934351886779568476

- The Regime was defeated in Ukraine but it will die in Israel, figuratively and literally. The best part is that this will be a self-inflicted wound. Israel chose to attack Iran believing Iran to be weak just like NATO thought Russia was weak, and Trump thought China was economically weak when he launched his trade war. Their hubris and stupidity has led them to their own demise.

- The markets are going to crash tomorrow unless Trump and the Regime throw Israel under the bus and make peace with BRICS, which we all know they will NEVER do. Iran hasn’t committed to closing the Strait of Hormuz yet, but is reserving that as a threat to give the Regime second-thoughts about escalation. If Iran closes the Strait, you’ll see $100 oil and $7 gasoline within a week and the markets will crash. According to Polymarket, there is currently a 34% chance Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, but the number was 40% yesterday when Israel was “winning”. Now that Iran has the advantage, the odds of a global energy crisis are falling, but that’s the rub. The Regime can’t win because if Iran is threatened, they’ll cause a global financial crisis, but they’re already in too deep, and because we’re talking about Israel, the Regime will have their back 200%.
source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/13/israel-iran-conflict-why-tehran-wont-block-the-hormuz-strait.html , https://www.yahoo.com/news/could-iran-carry-threat-shut-230354895.html , https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-2025 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-and-gold-jump-israel-targets-iranian-energy-infrastructure

- So the Regime can downplay Israel losing the war they started with Iran in order to keep the markets calm, or they can beat the drums of war and watch energy prices skyrocket and the markets crash. Either way, they lose. They’re checkmated and cannot win. This is why I thought Trump would cut a deal and reset everything with Israel, because it was the smart move. Now they’re in too deep and they’re fucked no matter what they do.

- The bottom line is that the next shoe to drop is the terrorist attack and possible assassination of Trump by ((Iran)) in order to get the US to go to war for Israel, which won’t work at this point, and Russia and China DO have Iran’s back. Israel jew’d too close to the sun this time. How far will they go? Are we looking at the fall of Weimar or the fall of Judea? Only time will tell.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 13th, 2025
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.
- I was wrong, Israel decided to attack Iran and trigger a regional war despite the threat of Iranian nukes being fake and despite Iran having intelligence regarding Israel’s nuclear sites. I guess they realized Iran was outplaying them and they doubled down again rather than just stop. So now either one of two things happens:

o 1. Iran cucks and does nothing.
o 2. Iran keeps their word and all hell breaks loose.

- Iran didn’t respond to Israel’s aggression in the past because they were winning the diplomatic battle, but obviously, violence is the final arbiter. What is Iran going to do? Their nuclear sites aren’t going to be destroyed, but there are reports of Israel bombing apartment buildings to assassinate high-ranking government officials. The head of the IRGC was killed when his apartment was hit by an airstrike. At least the “we’ll see” phase is finally over. Now comes the fun.
source: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/explosions-heard-tehran-israel-defense-minister-says-israel/ , https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1933332055099580614

- Oil prices soared on the news that Israel attacked Iran because assuming Iran doesn’t cuck and does what it threatened to do, oil prices are going to $100 and the financial crisis is assured. Was destroying the economy for the sake of Israel always the plan? Maybe.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Soar-After-Israel-Attacks-Irans-Nuclear-Facilities.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/JP-Morgan-Oil-Could-Hit-130But-Were-Still-Calling-60.html

- Also, while the US is claiming that they have nothing to do with the attack on Iran, Israel is launching its attack from within Iraq (which is next to Iran) in coordination with the US, so Iran is fully within its rights to destroy the US bases throughout the Middle East. Will they? Who knows?
source: https://x.com/warintel4u/status/1933336376243569059

- The Israel attack happened after the markets closed, so during trading hours the markets edged up slightly based on the softer CPI from the other day, but expect that to be completely wiped out tomorrow when the markets open unless Iran cucks and does nothing because all their missiles are fake and Halsey was right.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-mostly-edged-following-softer-expected-ppi-data-newsquawk-asia-pac-market , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-close-session-highs-retail-euphoria-boils-over-short-squeeze-frenzy-ends

- No response from Russia or China regarding this attack, but both countries have too much invested in Iran to do nothing and let the US and Israel destroy it for nuclear weapons it never even had in the first place. Tomorrow is going to be interesting, and I’ll be waiting to see what the players do.

- The bottom line is that all hell is going to break loose and what this shows is that no matter what happens diplomatically and economically, the regime will only stop when they are defeated in a bloody war. I now fully expect bailouts and stagflation because we’re at war now, and we can’t afford to let the market crash and for home prices to fall. Print print print!

- The best thing that could happen is that Iran surprises the regime with their response which causes the regime to demand a ceasefire similar to what happened in Ukraine, but we’ll have to see what happens. Everyone thought Ukraine was winning until the failed counter-offensive, so the truth will be decided on the battlefield written in blood.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 12th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- First things first: Trump and Netanyahu are pretending that they’re going to attack Iran any minute now with Trump evacuating families and non-essential personnel from Middle Eastern bases, and Netanyahu warning that if Israel goes down, they’ll take the whole region down with them. I need to remind you that if Israel and the US were going to attack Iran, they would just do it and you wouldn’t hear about it until after the fact. This is obvious kayfabe bullshit. Will Iran play along and “make the call” to avert the war? It’s so stupid and gay.
source: https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1932995194288549919 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-brewing-us-prepares-departure-all-nonessential-staff-iraq-kuwait-bahrain-embassies

- Crude oil jumped from $64 to $67, but is already beginning to fall again.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WTI-Spikes-Nearly-5-as-US-Embassy-Prepares-Iraq-Evacuation.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Iran-Nuclear-Negotiations-Derail-Over-Scheduling-Clash.html

- The LA riots have been re-branded “Anti ICE protests” and they are now AVOIDING attacking government buildings and the police, and are now just blocking traffic and looting, so the riots are over, and they’re now basically like those global warming protestors that glue themselves to the road and shit like that. I don’t even think anyone was killed, so I’m very disappointed.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/abbott-deploys-national-guard-san-antonio-ahead-wednesday-night-ice-protest

- No updates regarding the new Chinese trade deal since yesterday.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/us-china-trade-deal-trump.html , https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gkmy26e2po

- Regarding Russia, another round of sanctions against Russia has gone into effect which will do nothing, but otherwise, no updates.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/10/world/europe-new-sanctions-russia-strength-intl

- Turning to the markets now, as I predicted, silver is being shorted to hell in the “2nd largest short in history” by the LBMA itself (i.e. the exchange). Again, since China isn’t buying silver, only gold, the government has the power to crash the silver price through naked shorting with infinite money, and then cancel the contracts and steal your money if they lose. You can’t win against the rigged casino unless you’re China and you ALSO have infinite money.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-11/lbma-silver-short-position-grew-2nd-largest-history , https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-11/feds-shady-gold-secrets-spark-audit-bill-reckoning-near

- Stocks were bearish today based on geopolitical fears despite the supposed new deal with China and the better-than-expected CPI. The markets will likely rally before the end of the week when Iran “makes the call” and war is averted at the last minute in the finale to WWE Summerslam 25, live on Pay-Per-View!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-declined-geopolitical-fears-overshadowed-softer-expected-cpi-data-newsquawk-asia

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Energy
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Bonds

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Materials
o 2. Consumer Discretionary
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Natural Gas
o 5. Real Estate
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. Consumer Staples

- I don’t expect the panic over a war with Iran to last more than a day or so. The markets will likely rally by the end of the week once the new trade deal with China is finalized.

- The bottom line is that I hope this is the end of the Iranian kayfabe. The regime has already lost, and we passed “pathetic” a few exits ago. I’m just annoyed at this point. The markets are still expecting rate cuts and bailouts, and we’re still a month or so away from Q2 GDP numbers and a recession, so nothing is happening despite appearances. Even the riots turned fake and gay. Everything is fake and gay now.

The Morning Constitutional: June 11th, 2025

/watch/the-morning-constitutional-june-11th-2025_nYBsf6CG9iSdPKb.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 10th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The LA riots continued. Trump brought in the National Guard and the Marines, but nobody has been shot with anything more than rubber bullets and tear gas so far. Disappointing.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/newsom-nightmare-ca-governor-faces-criminal-tax-evasion-warning-amid-la-riot-chaos

- Iran obtained damning intelligence on Israel’s nuclear weapons program, including the locations of their weapons. Iran has threatened to destroy these sites immediately if they’re attacked by Israel and to make the intelligence public regarding Israel’s illegal nuclear weapons. The result is that Trump and Netanyahu suddenly want to make a deal and are okay with Iran’s nuclear enrichment for civilian use all of a sudden. I was expecting some kayfabe bullshit with Iran. I wasn’t expecting Iran to BTFO of Israel and outplay them. Iran is offering to give up their non-existent nuclear weapons if Israel does.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-it-obtained-trove-documents-israels-secret-nuclear-program , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1932128840241029389 , https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1932120040528068990

- Russia is still bombing the shit out of Ukraine.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-launched-record-nearly-500-drones-overnight-attack-ukraine

- There is a “high stakes” meeting between the US and China in London soon regarding Trump trying to reignite the trade war, but this is a bad joke. Everything is falling apart for the regime. China hasn’t even done anything and they’ve already won.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-china-gear-high-stakes-meeting-london

- I wasn’t expecting anything besides the LA riots to happen this week, but I’m surprised. Iran was grossly underestimated by Israel, and Israel played themselves. Trump tried his “art of the deal” bullshit and bluff his way to victory, and he’s been destroyed on all fronts. Russia would have made a deal if Trump didn’t try to use Iran as a bargaining chip for Israel. Now he’s lost everything geopolitically. Maybe Trump will focus on dealing with America’s domestic problems now.

- In the markets, the rally has fizzled in stocks, but silver is gaining quickly. Previously silver was lagging behind gold because the gold rally was being driven by BRICS, primarily China, but since China doesn’t want silver, silver didn’t rally the way gold did. Now people are losing faith in the dollar and are diversifying away from it and into silver because it’s underappreciated compared to gold. However, I don’t expect the rally to last because the government can crash silver. When they tried that with gold, China would just buy more, but since China isn’t buying silver, the government could successfully crash silver to prop up the dollar, so be aware of the risk if you plan to trade the metals short term.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/will-gold-hit-4000-year-case-building , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-fx-diversification-and-dollar , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/may-payrolls-rise-139k-beating-estimates-report-shows-creeping-labor-market-weakness , https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/retailers-offer-goldman-consumer-reality-check-one-thing-remains-clear , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-rally-fizzles-momentum-slumps-apple-dumps-silver-oil-meltup-continues

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Crypto
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Brent Crude Oil
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Utilities
o 3. Financials
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. Healthcare

- Why did Bitcoin rally? Aside from the rate cut hopes, the nation of Paraguay’s government announced on social media that they would begin accepting Bitcoin as legal tender, but it was likely a hack, it’s unclear. The government of Paraguay is investigating and cautions everyone to wait for an official announcement, so it might be legit and not a hack, but who knows?
source: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-price-blasts-higher-with-81m-in-shorts-burned-fed-cut-bets-hold-firm/ , https://cointelegraph.com/news/paraguay-president-santiago-pena-bitcoin-legal-tender. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/paraguay-presidents-x-account-likely-hacked-bitcoin-scheme-2025-06-09/

- So the bottom line is that aside from Iran outplaying Israel in geopolitical chess, not much new happened. I wouldn’t pay any attention to the markets right now. Also, again, I wouldn’t chase the silver rally because it isn’t backed by China and the government could crash it easily as they have in the past. The Paraguay Bitcoin thing is interesting because the government didn’t immediately deny it, but it changes nothing even if it’s true. However, it’s your money, go chase that dragon if you want.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 9th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- As the commodities markets reopen, energy is flat. There really isn’t anything in the news worth mentioning either.

- I’m seeing a lot of articles about the debt and the bond market over the weekend, which could mean a bear market during the upcoming week. Let’s check to see how Bitcoin did on Sunday. Bitcoin FELL over Sunday, but just barely, so the market will likely be flat or down slightly. There honestly doesn’t appear to be anything going on.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-radical-fix-eliminate-debt-unfortunately-it-will-never-work , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-only-thing-really-matters-america-find-way-grow-out-these-stunning-deficits , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dollar-has-decoupled-treasury-yields-best-way-trade-it

- In geopolitics, Russia has expanded their offensive and has now invaded a new region of Ukraine for the first time. Trump is also backing down from the threat of expanded sanctions against Russia because they won’t fucking do anything anyway except make energy more expensive in Europe. However, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that NATO is actually going to end the war any time soon, merely try to lose slower.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-expands-ground-war-ukraines-dnipropetrovsk-region-first-time , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-urges-senator-graham-weaken-russian-sanctions-bill , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/globalists-go-radio-silent-nato-flirts-world-war-iii

- Nothing else to report. There is stuff going on, but it’s not significant. Israel and Iran are in a stalemate, and I’m still expecting a terrorist attack soon, but with the LA riots going on, maybe the regime will delay the terrorism for a while. In case you’re curious, I’m fine. I don’t live anywhere near the city for this precise reason.

- So the bottom line is that this week might be uneventful as far as finance and geopolitics are concerned, especially since the LA Riots are likely to take over the news cycle and the regime is likely to postpone any scheduled psyops until the riots play out. If anything happens next week I’ll be very surprised.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 6th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big news today is that Trump and Elon Musk had a fight and are no longer friends, and it was the talk of the town on social media. I’m going to stake my claim that this is fake and gay. Remember a few weeks ago when Trump pretended to be fighting with Netanyahu to secure the release of an American-Israeli dual citizen from Hamas, and then betrayed them as soon as he secured the hostage’s release? That’s what’s going on here. Either this is part of a larger plan, or could simply be that Elon Musk has left the Trump administration already, but working with Trump has damaged the brand image of himself and Tesla, and having a public spat and a falling out allowed Elon Musk to be distanced from Trump so Leftists will stop vandalizing Tesla dealerships.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/im-very-disappointed-elon-trump-responds-musk-opposition-big-beautiful-bill , https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/whoa-steve-bannon-unloads-elon-musk-president-trump/ , https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/06/wth-elon-musk-announces-spacex-will-decommission-dragon/

- Energy was flat today, but the markets closed negative due to the Trump-Elon fighting because the tech bros are worried that if Trump isn’t BFFs with Elon anymore then they may not get a bailout when the recession hits as expected. Ironically, the markets were up before the Trump and Elon feud with Goldman Sachs declaring a Summer bull market.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-finished-red-amid-escalation-trump-musk-public-spat-newsquawk-asia-pac-market , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/summer-euphoria-goldman-flows-gurus-give-greenlight-equity-bulls , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-continue-dominate-market-here-what-theyre-buying-and-selling

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Agriculture Commodities
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Bonds
o Everything else was down.

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Consumer Discretionary
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Natural Gas
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Gold
o 7. S&P 500 Index

- It’s telling that the markets were up, but the second investors saw a falling out between Trump and Elon and questioned whether Wall Street could count on a bailout, they suddenly ran to commodities and away from crypto. It proves what’s holding up the market at this point.
- In geopolitics, Russia is continuing its offensive against Ukraine, but hasn’t launched any major retaliatory or escalatory strikes, so nothing is happening despite the explosions in Kiev.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-negotiations-terrorists-well-retaliate-time-our-choosing-kremlin , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-takes-swipe-trump-calling-putin-russia-giving-finger , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/risk-escalation-russia-going-way-due-ukrainian-attacks-kellogg

- In regards to Israel, we may be getting closer to WWE Summerslam on Pay-Per-View. The latest drama is that Trump is purging his administration of “Israel hardliners”, but we’ve seen this before. Again, remember when Trump pretended to have a falling out with Netanyahu, and it was all fake and gay? However, the Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel are threatening to collapse the government due to them being conscripted into the military, which may force Netanyahu to end the war or watch his government dissolve without the support of the Ultra-Orthodox.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-purges-israel-hardliners-overhaul-mideast-policy , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-ultra-orthodox-push-dissolve-parliament-force-election-over-conscription

- In regards to Iran, Iran is demanding a “nuclear-free Middle East” and wants Israel to give up its nuclear weapons while not-so-subtly pointing out the regime’s rank hypocrisy in trying to disarm Iran while allowing Israel to have a nuclear arsenal while committing genocide against Muslim populations.
source: https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/iran-foreign-minister-we-want-a-nuclear-free-middle-east/

- So the bottom line is that I strongly suspect the Elon Trump beef is fake to distance Elon from Trump now that he’s left the administration and to make Tesla popular with Leftist environmentalists again, at least that’s my take. Interestingly, this happened after Trump set Jerome Powell up to be the “bad guy” for not cutting rates and giving Wall Street what it wanted (i.e. government bailouts). Perhaps this is part of some larger plan to allow the markets to crash without looking like the bad guy for political reasons, or maybe I’m connecting unrelated random dots that have nothing to do with each other.

- I expect nothing to happen regarding Ukraine or Iran that we haven’t already talked about. Russia will take Ukraine, and there will not be a war against Iran. All of this kayfabe bluffing is pathetic at this point. Also, shout out to the Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel for taking care of their community and telling the Zionists to eat shit. Note how they don’t care about Greater Israel or any of that nonsense, but only about the lives of the men in their community that the government is conscripting to send to war. That’s how you do it.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 5th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Crazy day today! There was bad economic data, which caused the “bad news is good news” effect because investors thought that the FED would announce a rate cut in response to the bad data, which caused bond yields to fall. However, Jerome Powell rejected rate cuts, and investors flew off the handle because they were betting on a bailout.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bond-yields-dollar-plunge-bad-data-sparks-surge-rate-cut-hopes , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-were-choppy-after-weak-data-spurred-drop-yields-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.html , https://palmettograin.com/news/story/32719474/billionaire-grant-cardone-calls-fed-chair-jerome-powell-the-greatest-threat-to-the-american-public-and-should-be-removed-immediately , https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1930355280703041824

- I wonder if Trump’s plan is for Jerome Powell to be the “bad cop” and let the market crash while Trump pretends to be the “good cop” and demands bailouts. At the end of the day, the government NEEDS a recession to bring down bond yields and refinance its debt, but Trump needs to appease his supporters, so having Jerome Powell take the “fall” might be the play.
- The winners in the market today were:

o 1. Bonds
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Gold
o 4. Agriculture Commodities
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Materials
o 7. Real-Estate

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Energy
o 2. Utilities
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o 6. Financials
o 7. Consumer Staples

- The markets were pretty flat today with the only movement caused by the weak jobs data moving the bond market, but then resetting when Jerome Powell didn’t announce emergency bailouts. Other than that, nothing is happening.

- There isn’t much going on geopolitically either. The US Embassy in Ukraine is warning that Russia might still do a massive retaliation for the drone attack on their airfields in the coming days. Regarding Israel, the US vetoed a resolution to force Israel to stop killing people, and the US warned Europe to not recognize a Palestinian State. What’s the plan here? Russia isn’t going to throw Iran under the bus as the peace talks have already failed. They’re just stalling for time with no plan whatsoever. These are the smartest and most powerful men on Earth showing how unbelievably incompetent they are without a full monopoly over the outcomes.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-embassy-tells-americans-be-prepared-take-cover-kyiv-braces-shock-awe-attack , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-warns-uk-france-not-recognize-palestinian-state , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-rejects-us-nuclear-proposal-vows-iran-will-keep-enriching-uranium , https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-backed-gaza-aid-group-halt-distribution-wednesday-un-vote-ceasefire-demand-2025-06-04/

- The bottom line is that the regime is stalling, but I don’t see what they’re stalling for as they have no further cards to play. They’re likely just stalling for time and hoping that something happens. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a terrorist attack on American soil soon because that’s the regime’s go-to strategy: whenever the current situation is unwinnable, throw in a little chaos and see if it creates some new opportunities. My money is on some “Iranian-backed” Muslim terrorist attack, but it could also be Russian or Chinese. We’ll just have to see what the government does to its people to cover up their fuck ups if it happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-06-03/trumps-border-tsar-issues-dire-warning-another-911-coming

The Morning Constitutional: June 4th, 2025

/watch/the-morning-constitutional-june-4th-2025_Yr4qDJUK5wOcWFm.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 3rd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing ever happens has triumphed once again. Russia hasn’t done anything, and most analysts are saying that Russia won’t do anything after previously claiming that Russia will launch an Oreznik hypersonic missile barrage in retaliation yesterday. The reason is that the attack was conducted inside Russia using drones and didn’t involve any outside NATO countries directly. Also, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to pull off the same trick twice, so deterrence isn’t really a factor, Russia doesn’t have to do anything, and thus analysts are concluding that they won’t. They will simply continue with their offensive as before as if nothing happened because … nothing ever happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ukrainian-drone-swarm-attack-proves-irregular-warfare-now-operational-reality

- Europe is still pretending that we’re going to start a nuclear war with Russia unless they let us win. Dumbasses.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-signs-lunatics-are-back-charge-setting-nuclear-armed-escalation-russia , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/playing-fire

- In regards to Iran and Israel, Trump has backtracked on his demand that Iran give up all of its enrichment and give up its nuclear energy program. Now Iran CAN enrich uranium for civilian use, so the kayfabe may finally be ending since the regime now wants to pivot back to Russia for some reason.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-expected-reject-what-us-calls-acceptable-nuke-deal-proposal

- Let’s turn now to the markets and see what’s going on:

- I saw a shill thread on X/Twitter today where a guy argued that we’re not headed for recession, but a big bull market, and that nobody is prepared for it and you need to buy bitcoin and tech stock right now. His evidence? Oil prices fell during the Chinese trade war. Well, about that. Crude oil shot up almost 4% today, with natural gas shooting up nearly 8%. Why? Because the trade war is canceled. Remember when Trump said “No more Mr. Nice Guy” the other day and threatened to reignite the trade war and caused the market to puke? He was just joking. Oh, that Trump is such a kidder. It’s not like he immediately cucked when the market began to panic or anything. However, now we know where the market optimism came from now: the insiders were aware that Trump was going to reverse the trade war with China again. However, what the shills pushing the bull market narrative don’t understand is that without a recession, energy prices are going back up. Recession fears are the only thing keeping inflation from surging. Either the market crashes or the market crashes with extra steps.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Rise-Despite-OPEC-Output-Hike-Plans.html

- Oh, and now that the Chinese trade war is off again, and the insiders made their money front-loading it, they’re bearish again. Don’t you just love the rigged casino?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-gross-top-goldman-trader-worries-question-not-being-asked , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-clawed-back-early-losses-despite-ongoing-trade-uncertainty-and-soft-data , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-are-now-sellers-every-scenario

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Gold
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Crypto
o 7. Energy

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bonds
o 2. The VIX
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Agriculture Commodities
o 5. Industrials
o 6. Bitcoin
o Everything else was up.

- Please note that without the fear of a trade war and crippling tariffs, the markets are betting on inflation. However, the only way to stop it would be to accept a recession and crash the markets, which Trump has proven to be unwilling to do.

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening geopolitically, and the markets are even faker and gayer than previously thought possible, but it is Gay Pride Month, so I guess that’s on brand.

Monkey’s Market Minute: June 2nd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Let’s start with geopolitics because something happened today! Ukraine launched a massive drone attack across several of the military bases deep within Russia that were home to Russia’s nuclear bombers. Putin has authorized the use of Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to be used in response, and some are calling his Russia’s “Pearl Harbor”, and anticipate a massive Russian response that may end the war. However, I’ll believe it when I see it and will bet that “nothing ever happens” until then.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/ukrainian-drone-swarm-attacks-hit-russian-long-range-bombers , https://x.com/AlphonsusOlieh/status/1929208183806902765 , https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1929135654165733450 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-russias-retaliation-ukraines-strategic-drone-strikes-decisively-end-conflict

- There isn’t much else to say. The regime never wanted peace, but simply wanted Russia to agree to a ceasefire so they could rearm for the next round without admitting defeat. Attacking Russia’s strategic bases to disable their nuclear bombers is a telling move, and the comparison to Pearl Harbor is not hyperbolic. Russia gave Trump a chance to keep his promises to end the war, and they gave peace talks a chance, but the Regime doesn’t want peace unless they win and get what they want, and they still think they can win or at least pressure Russia into agreeing to a ceasefire and letting them expand into Ukraine despite losing the war.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-prepared-all-out-conflict-nato-institute-war

- Nothing to report regarding Iran, Israel, or the Houthis. I guess this week will be about Russia and Ukraine, and we’ll check back in with Israel and Iran later. We don’t want too many storylines going at once or the fans will get confused.

- Let’s return to the markets!

- Energy jumped up when the commodities markets reopened, and the sentiment in the markets has done a complete 180 from pessimistic regarding the renewed trade war with China, to wildly optimistic for no reason whatsoever. I have no idea what data they’re looking at to justify such optimism.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tariffs-and-Turmoil-Undermine-Trumps-Oil-and-Gas-Promises.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mamaga-making-mag7-great-again-why-goldman-expects-supertechs-soar-summer , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-bears-capitulate-buy-most-tech-stocks-record , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-we-now-believe-us-stocks-will-outperform-rest-world

- I’ll be watching for confirmation, but irrational optimism by the “smart money” usually means that there are government shenanigans afoot. Perhaps they’ve received assurances that Wall Street will be bailed out or that GDP will come in positive due to some “creative accounting”.

- So the bottom line is that something may happen this week. I’ll be waiting to see what Russia does and if we get some confirmation regarding how the markets are so optimistic regarding tech stock and GDP. If there is nothing rational to explain it, then I can only assume that the government is going to step in and bail everyone out.