Monkey’s Market Minute: August 22, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The media is still pushing rate cuts, but one of the FED governors admitted that the data doesn’t support rate cuts, hence why stocks declined today. The Jackson Hole Symposium is tomorrow, and everyone will be hanging on every word Jerome Powell says and doesn’t say, and trying to guess if rate cuts are more or less likely. Since the government is entirely driving the market, this speech means more than all the earnings reports of all the companies in the stock market.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-mostly-declined-participants-digested-data-and-hawkish-fed-speak-ahead-jackson , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-support-september-rate-cut-full-jackson-hole-preview-and-how-trade-it , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1958549289681952918

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. WTI Crude Oil
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. The US Dollar

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Consumer Staples
o 3. Utilities
o 4. Bonds
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. S&P 500 Index
o 7. Crypto

- I’m not expecting a crash since the recession was cancelled, but without rate cuts, the market has nothing pushing it higher except the promise of bailouts if things go wrong.

- In geopolitics, the only thing that’s happening is that Russia is asserting itself as the Regime talks about trying to sneak in NATO expansion under the guise of “security guarantees”. The Regime will let Russia “win”, but they’re going to move forces into Ukraine and rearm Ukraine anyway by pretending to protect Ukraine from another war and providing “security”, and Russia is having none of it. You lost! You don’t get to expand NATO into Ukraine through the back door after losing the war. Russia launched a major drone attack on Ukraine today, blowing up a US-owned factory in Ukraine. Putin is saying that Russia has “veto authority” over what happens in Ukraine. Trump and the Regime are shaking their fist in the air about being blatantly called out, and threatening more bullshit sanctions and tariffs, but Russia doesn’t care, BRICS doesn’t care. Nobody cares.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-attacks-us-owned-factory-ukraine-while-insisting-it-has-veto-power-over-any

- Meanwhile, Iran has signed a dozen treaties with Belarus as a deepening integration with BRICS and to overcome the West’s sanctions and attempts at economic and strategic interference. This doesn’t mean anything new per se, but it formalizes the deepening relationships within the BRICS network, and shows that Iran is effectively untouchable at this point in case the US or Israel have any further ideas about regime change and Greater Israel.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iranian-president-inks-defense-treaty-belarus-seeks-overcome-us-sanctions

- Finally, there is an interesting article about how “woke” and DEI are getting rebranded and sold again as “stakeholder capitalism”. Communists do this shit every time. They never give up; they just change the meaning of some words and push the exact same shit again and again.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/globalists-are-rebranding-their-woke-capitalism-agenda-after-crushing-setbacks

- The bottom line is that the Regime is losing again, but otherwise nothing has changed. The rate cuts appear to be cancelled, but I don’t expect the market to crash or anything. Russia isn’t falling for the Regime’s sneaky backdoor ceasefire bullshit, and they’re salty about it, but they lost, get used to it, because the losing will continue.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 21st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets fell today, and I was right that it was because the promised rate cut was cancelled. However, Jerome Powell has apparently signalled that he’ll support a September rate cut, and JPM is broadcasting to “buy the dip”. The media is pushing the rate cut, but the data (and markets) are signalling the opposite. My gut is telling me the rate cut is cancelled despite the media hype.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-support-september-rate-cut-full-jackson-hole-preview-and-how-trade-it , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-trading-desk-start-buying-dip , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1958235414164103521

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Bitcoin
o 4. Gold
o 5. Energy
o 6. Broad Commodities
o 7. The VIX

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Information Technology
o 3. Communications Technology
o 4. S&P 500 Index
o 5. Natural Gas
o 6. Industrials
o 7. The US Dollar

- Again, there is a strong possibility that rate cuts are cancelled, hence the stock movement, but who knows? The government can rig the game however they want.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-mostly-declined-amid-continued-tech-weakness-and-after-hawkish-leaning-fomc

- There isn’t anything happening in geopolitics that we haven’t already talked about. Israel is taking over Gaza and the West Bank, killing and expelling the Palestinians, even the ones in the West Bank who had nothing to do with Hamas or the October 7th attacks, and nobody is going to do anything, so it sucks to be Palestinian, but it changes nothing.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-calls-60000-reservists-ahead-gaza-city-takeover

- There is nothing to talk about in regards to Russia and Ukraine. You have the usual suspects talking shit and spreading bulllshit, but nothing is happening.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-clarifies-no-us-boots-ground-ukraine , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-what-really-happened-alaska , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-makes-clear-there-are-no-zelensky-putin-talks-immediate-horizon , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-set-crush-russia-economy-if-putin-evades-zelensky-sen-graham

- The bottom line is that the only thing mildly interesting is the “will they or won’t they” game regarding FED rate cuts, but if you follow the money, my hunch is that rate cuts are cancelled. All the media about buying the dip or that rate cuts are confirmed is Wall Street covering for the insider trading of the government. We’ll see, I could be wrong.

The Morning Constitutional: August 20th, 2025
https://www.mgtow.tv/watch/the-morning-constitutional-august-20th-2025_wVBF1DnCqZMA3Pt.html
/watch/the-morning-constitutional-august-20th-2025_wVBF1DnCqZMA3Pt.html

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 19th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The markets are operating as expected. Chinese stocks have surged to a 10-year high, and the Chinese are buying gold again. If you have to ask why, you haven’t been paying attention.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-stocks-surge-10-year-high , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/central-banks-cant-stop-buying-gold-should-you

- Meanwhile, as I discussed on the show on Saturday, Sam Altman, from OpenAI, is admitting that the AI hype is a bubble and that it’s similar to the dot-com bubble before the 2000 crash. This is the CEO of an AI company telling you his industry is in a massive bubble.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-bubbles-happen-sam-altman-says-enthusiasm-ai-compares-dot-com-boom-2000-crash

- I’ll be watching the bond market this coming week to see if the FED will begin “yield curve control” to disguise the cracking bond market. The Fed may be forced to cancel rate cuts due to the bond market cracking, especially with PPI surging. However, no matter what they do things are going to end badly. Trump missed his window to manage a recession and blame Biden for everything with plenty of time before the next election. Soon, the “finding out” will begin.
source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-heres-how-us-stagflation-risks-could-play-out-across-world-markets/ , https://cointelegraph.com/news/next-bitcoin-buy-signal-could-come-from-bond-market-stress-analyst

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Consumer Discretionary
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. The US Dollar

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Real Estate
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Materials
o 6. Energy
o 7. Communications Technology
- All aboard the stagflation train!

- There’s nothing to report in regards to geopolitics that we haven’t already discussed, and I don’t see anything on the horizon either. These meetings between Trump and Putin are a stalling tactic and nothing more. They’re trying to slow Russia down with the promises of peace in exchange for short-term ceasefires, which will push the war into 2026. What will be different in 2026? Nothing, but the Regime is just trying to put off the day they admit they were defeated as long as possible. BRICS has already won and will continue to do so.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-standing-way-grand-compromise-ukraine

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening or expected to happen except the slow death of the Regime and the coming Stagflationary Depression. Strap in because you have a front-row seat!

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 18th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- In the markets, analysts are warning that the bond market is cracking. This is because we NEED to have a recession, and because the recession was cancelled by Trump, the bond market is paying the price. The government’s response will be “yield curve control,” where the FED buys and sells bonds to control long-term yields. Note that this is separate from the expected rate cut at the next FOMC, this is to manipulate the numbers and disguise the cracking of the bond market due to their manipulation of stocks and commodities. The bottom line is we’re heading for stagflation, so expect gold to go up. Crypto is also expected to go up until the tech bubble bursts, but until then, crypto is still seen as “digital gold”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-raise-allocations-gold-and-crypto-because-yield-curve-control-coming

- Hedge funds were expecting the market to fall due to tariffs and the high PPI print, but fundamentals don’t matter anymore, so now the hedge funds are buying back into the market for the foreseeable future. Full speed to the scene of the crash. In fact, analysts are throwing their hands up and declaring that, despite the data, the fundamentals aren’t “changing people’s minds”, but the truth is that the government is lying and propping up the market, so what can you do as an investor? The casino is rigged. Either leave the table or bet on the government because there is no alternative.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-turn-bullish-buy-us-stocks-fastest-pace-7-weeks , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-got-some-data-it-didnt-change-peoples-minds , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/calling-tops-hard-goldmans-head-risk-says-market-meltup-will-continue

- In geopolitics, nothing is happening. The Trump-Putin meeting accomplished nothing, but the stalling is continuing. Apparently, there will be another meeting next Friday where nothing will happen, but the Regime is stalling and buying time, and that’s all that matters. In a couple of months, the rainy season will begin again in Ukraine, and Russia’s offensive will stall, and that may be the plan. Who knows? The Regime has no plan.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-standing-way-grand-compromise-ukraine , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-pushing-summit-putin-zelensky-next-friday

- The bottom line is that once again, we’re just watching things play out slowly, but there isn’t anything happening that we haven’t already talked about. We’re heading to stagflation because the government is stupid, and the Regime is losing all of its wars and doesn’t know what to do, so just like with the economy, they’re just buying time and hoping something magical happens and the problems solve themselves somehow, or maybe they’re just hoping they can kick the can down the road for another 3 and a half years until it’s the next guy’s problem. Who knows?

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 15th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Lots to talk about today, which is surprising, but here we go!

- PPI (producer price inflation) came in HOT, up 0.9 in one month (the expectation was 0.2). People were joking that the government forgot to cook the PPI data because it’s not the “important” one. PPI is the inflation wholesalers pay, while CPI is what consumers pay. Generally, PPI leads CPI by a month, so if PPI surges, you can expect CPI to surge the following month as price increases are passed down to consumers. I wasn’t expecting PPI to surge until September or October due to warehousing, so I’m not sure what happened. Did they forget to restock their warehouses before the tariffs kicked in?
source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-inflation-heats-up-goods-services-prices-soar-2025-08-14/ , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stock-indices-finished-mostly-flat-price-action-choppy-after-hot-ppi-data-newsquawk-asia

- The hot PPI did NOT sour expectations for a rate cut, so it’s a done deal. With inflation surging and rates being cut into inflation, bond yields are surging as the bond market crashes. This will cause bank insolvencies if the government doesn’t do stealth-QE or bail out the banks (which they’ll do, don’t worry). Europe is also entering stagflation, and the US will likely follow soon, although the recession will likely be unofficial due to manipulated data, but it will “feel” the same regardless of what the government tells you.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-and-yields-rise-hot-us-ppi-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stagflation-risks-dim-bullishness-europe , https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1956029405551083794

- Something else happened today: Scott Bessent confirmed that the US will NOT be buying Bitcoin, that the “strategic reserve” will only be the Bitcoin the government has seized from criminals and terrorists, and that the US policy is focusing on dollar-denominated stablecoins, not Bitcoin. This caused crypto to sell off, but only slightly. People were losing their shit on Twitter today about it, though. It’s interesting because the “strategic reserve” narrative has driven much of the growth in Bitcoin in recent months, and now that it’s dead, nothing much has happened. I’m guessing that rate cut hopes will be the new narrative for higher Bitcoin demand. Nobody is buying Bitcoin to use for anything. BRICS isn’t. The US government isn’t. Nobody is. It’s whatever. It’ll crash with everything else soon enough.
source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1956049086160814306 , https://x.com/JacobKinge/status/1956020238061068746

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Financials
o 5. Healthcare
o 6. The US Dollar
o 7. Crypto

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Bonds
o 3. Materials
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Agriculture Commodities
o 7. Real Estate

- Note that the market is positioning for stagflation, not a recession. Despite the surging inflation, rates will be cut, which will make the inflation worse. If the government ever tells the truth about the data, the market will crash, but don’t expect that to happen. Trump is too busy buying time for Israel.

- In geopolitics, Putin and Trump have arrived in Alaska for the big summit. Meanwhile, Russia is making a big push I Ukraine and took over 40 miles of territory in a single day just to show off.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eve-alaska-summit-russian-forces-make-biggest-single-day-gains-war , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-hints-expected-nuclear-arms-treaty-breakthrough-trump-summit

- Nothing else is happening. I don’t expect the Alaska meeting to result in anything; it’s just a stalling tactic. However, after the 12-day war with Iran, the US is running out of missiles. If Trump is smart, he’ll figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine while not looking like NATO lost, but if he continues to try to pressure Russia to throw Iran under the bus for Israel’s sake, then nothing will be gained and Russia will simply win “the old-fashioned way”. We’ll see what happens, but I expect nothing because the Regime doesn’t know how to take an L.

- The bottom line is that I’ll be keeping an eye on anything happening in Alaska, but I’m not optimistic. Regarding the markets, we’re heading for stagflation. What do you want me to say? The government is going to keep manipulating and lying about the data to keep the bubble inflated for as long as possible, but the day-to-day lives of people will get worse and worse. You will feel stagflation long before the government is forced to confirm it. How do you profit from stagflation? You can buy metals and hold them, but don’t expect a quick turn-around or anything. Be prepared to hold them for years, and in the meantime, the bubble is going to be propped up for the foreseeable future, so if you’re feeling lucky, have at it. Just realize you’re gambling and there is no safety net beneath you, and have fun.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 14th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I’m hearing rumors of the Regime replacing foreign demand for bonds by promoting stablecoins linked to US dollars, effectively replacing foreign central bank demand with demand from the poor of the 3rd world who want dollars rather than their shitty currency. However, this is retarded (not saying it’s not true, merely retarded) because the third world is joining BRICS, which already has BRICS-pay, which already solves this problem, and unlike the dollar or a dollar-based stablecoin, can’t be weaponized or manipulated by the US government. This whole plan is retarded.
source: https://x.com/cryptorbion/status/1955725624934273359 , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/21/how-the-stablecoin-bill-gives-treasury-secretary-bessent-a-new-tool-to-fund-the-us-deficit.html

- In preparation for this stablecoin plan, Google is banning “unlicensed” wallets to force crypto into regulated exchanges where the government can freeze your money. Wallet developers will have to acquire banking licenses to operate in the US and EU. Also, before anyone “corrects me” about how this isn’t a big deal and doesn’t matter, this is only the beginning. Do you think the US government is going to normalize crypto unless it fully controls it? Think Mark!
source: https://coincentral.com/google-blocks-non-custodial-crypto-wallets-from-play-store-in-major-regulatory-shift/ , https://www.ainvest.com/news/google-forces-crypto-wallet-developers-banking-licenses-eu-markets-2508/

- What does all of this mean for Bitcoin? The government regulations are about stablecoins, leaving Bitcoin “politically orphaned”. Bitcoin has not and will not be adopted by the US government, just as it wasn’t adopted by BRICS for use in BRICS-pay. Don’t worry, I’m sure the number will go up until the market crashes everywhere, so don’t worry. United Healthcare is already recovering after its recent crash from last week, despite horrible earnings for reasons.
source: https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2025/07/25/bitcoins-political-orphanhood-stablecoins-and-shifting-demand-in-the-post-genius-act-era/ , https://x.com/DividendDude_X/status/1955772648887132505

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Materials
o 3. Healthcare
o 4. Consumer Discretionary
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Energy
o 7. Natural Gas

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Consumer Staples
o Everything else was up.

- Nothing has fundamentally changed from the other day. Everything is at an all-time high because the recession is cancelled and rates will be cut at the next FED meeting.

- In geopolitics, I don’t have much to report, but I had a crazy thought. I wonder if Trump will arrest Putin during the meeting in Alaska this week. Crazy thought, right, but remember that Putin is wanted for war crimes in Ukraine by the ICJ, just like Netanyahu is. Putin is wanted for moving children out of Ukraine to be with their families in Russia, which the ICJ claims is abduction. Netanyahu is wanted for killing children and their families to steal their land, so basically the same thing, right? So how does Trump fit into this? By arresting Putin, Trump can pressure BRICS to denounce the ICJ, which in turn gives political cover for Israel, which is also wanted by the ICJ. Trump can also pressure Russia to throw Iran under the bus. Again, I have no evidence for this; it’s just a thought I had because I’m bored and nothing is going on. I fully expect the Trump-Putin meeting to be a nothing burger, but if Trump arrests Putin, that would be something, wouldn’t it?
source: https://www.scrippsnews.com/world/trump-and-putins-alaska-summit-a-safe-haven-from-international-arrest-warrants

- Speaking of Israel, remember when “Greater Israel” was an antisemitic conspiracy theory, and there was no evidence that Israel was trying to annex Muslim land to re-create their version of “the Holy Land”? Well, Netanyahu just endorsed it, calling Greater Israel his spiritual mission.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-says-he-backs-greater-israel-drawing-outrage-arab-states

- So that’s it. I don’t expect anything to happen with Russia, but Israel is up to something. Are they going to try attacking Iran again? Who knows? It won’t go any better than the first time if they do.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/over-20000-arrested-iran-suspicion-espionage-during-war-israel

- The bottom line is that we’ll see if there’s any truth to the rumors of the US government using stablecoins to bail itself out and launder its bonds nobody else wants. Israel may do something, but I doubt it. The only way Israel attacks Iran is if Trump can get Russia to throw them under the bus first, and that will likely be discussed this week at the meeting between Trump and Putin. It could all be bullshit, we’ll see.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 12th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The CPI is scheduled to be published tomorrow, and everyone is expecting a low-inflation print, which will dovetail into rate cuts later this month, and is expecting to push AI stocks and crypto to new all-time highs. It doesn’t matter what the fundamentals are or if the government is manipulating the data. The markets will dance to the government’s tune until something breaks.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-preview-only-shockingly-hot-number-will-derail-september-rate-cut

- I don’t have much else to say. We are 1,000% in a bubble, but the government is propping it up, and if you want to make money, there’s nowhere else to make money right now. How much do you trust the government to not fuck this up?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-game-rigged-and-everyone-lyingstill

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Agriculture Commodities
o 4. Crypto
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o 6. Brent Crude Oil
o 7. The US Dollar

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Gold
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Energy
o 4. Real Estate
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. Materials
o 7. Industrials

- Inflation is over, rate cuts are coming, and crypto to the moon! What could go wrong?
- In geopolitics, Trump all but confirmed that the meeting with Russia this week is nothing more than a stalling tactic by downplaying expectations and claiming that this is just a “feel-out meeting”, so nothing will come of it. The Regime is just stalling for Israel.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-tempers-expections-ahead-alaska-feel-out-meeting-putin

- Nothing else is happening worth mentioning, and the meeting in Alaska between Trump and Putin was the only thing I was looking forward to all week, and it’s already been ruined. I expect nothing, and I’m still let down!

- The bottom line is that the bubble will get more bubbly, while the Regime stalls for time rather than cut its losses and make peace. That’s all that’s going on. Most likely, the Regime will only seriously seek peace when the economy collapses and they can no longer afford all these wars any longer, which means both issues are related. Oh, and Trump already delayed the tariffs against China for ANOTHER 90 days, so China is 2 and 0 against the US with their trade war bullshit. This is just pathetic and annoying at this point.
source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-china-tariffs-deadline-extended.html , https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-china-tariff-extension-90-days-trade-war/

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 11th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Hedge funds are expecting a pullback from the rally caused by the economy not collapsing immediately under the tariffs, but don’t get too excited. There is an ebb and flow to markets where they react strongly, then reverse as investors book their profits and options contracts are exchanged. It’s not significant.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-short-stocks-fastest-pace-4-months-retail-bid-fades , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-have-never-been-short-small-caps

- Morgan Stanley asks why there is a delay between tariffs and inflation, and the answer is warehousing. You’re welcome, Morgan Stanley.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-why-there-such-large-delay-between-tariffs-and-inflation

- Japanese car makers are losing $20M per day due to the tariffs. Trump pressured them not to raise prices to cover the tariffs, or else the FED wouldn’t bail out their financial system, and so the cannibalization of the Japanese economy has begun. Japan is in too much debt and is too dependent on the US banking system to say no to Trump, so they’re just going to get screwed until they give China a call and switch sides. How long will that take? Who can say?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-automakers-losing-20-million-day-us-tariffs

- JP Morgan is repeating the market consensus that rates will be cut this month by the FED, so that means the FED is going to get blamed for the inflation.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-change-fed-call-after-miran-appointment-now-sees-september-rate-cut , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/has-anybody-noticed-us-m2-hitting-all-time-highs

- The big news in geopolitics is the summit between Trump and Putin. Ukraine, Europe, and the neocons are all against it and want to keep the war going even though it’s over. They plan to start a nuclear war with Russia because Russia will cuck and admit defeat instead of nuking you back, according to them. We’ll see what Trump actually does this week. He SHOULD take the L, but the Regime has only doubled down so far, so I’ll be surprised if Trump actually does the right thing for once.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/neocon-bolton-alaska-summit-gift-moscow , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelesnky-rejects-rejects-ceding-territory-after-trump-talks-land-swap-these-are-dead , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-mulls-inviting-zelensky-trump-putin-talks-alaska , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-putin-alaska-summit-peace-talks-and-power-plays-former-russian-soil

- There’s nothing else going on worth talking about. Israel is going to keep killing Palestinians, and nobody is going to do anything, so it’s not worth discussing. Azerbaijan has cemented its betrayal of BRICS after helping Israel attack Iran by signing a deal with the US, so that was a decision they made. I hope the money was worth it. The fact that the Regime is still bribing and trying to flip BRICS members leads me to believe Trump isn’t interested in peace, and this summit will be a nothing-burger. The Regime will continue to lose until it financially collapses, but that won’t happen for a while.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-brokered-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-secures-us-trade-route , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/xi-tells-putin-china-ready-back-peace-negotiations-us-ukraine

- The bottom line is that the summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin is the only thing happening this week of any possible substance, and I don’t expect anything to happen. It’s just yet another stalling tactic and nothing else. All the important decisions have been made, and we’re locked in for the stagflationary depression and the collapse of the empire. At least Israel got what it wanted, so at least someone did.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 8th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Trump appointed a replacement for a departing FED governor, which was seen as dovish and a precursor to rate cuts, causing the dollar to dump and gold to rise alongside crypto, because crypto is still seen as “digital gold”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-appoints-stephen-miran-fed-governor-replacing-kugler-dollar-dumps-gold-and-crypto

- With bailouts and a re-inflated tech bubble being the default expectation, the bond market is crashing, which will cause bank insolvencies. This is why Trump was a retard to go for 3% GDP growth so he could pat himself on the back. He should have “barely” kept GDP above 0% so that recession fears would still keep inflation under control while avoiding bank insolvency, but all of that is over now.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-spike-after-very-ugly-tailing-30y-auction-sparks-steepening-fears

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Agriculture Commodities
o 3. Materials
o 4. Crypto
o 5. Utilities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Consumer Staples

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Healthcare
o 3. Financials
o 4. Communications Technology
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. WTI Crude Oil
o 7. Energy

- Nothing to report except that without recession fears, the bond market is going to have problems which will affect the banking sector, but the government can always monetize its debt and bail itself out, so don’t expect any major consequences at this time.

- In geopolitics, the deal being negotiated between Trump and Putin has been leaked, and it’s not good, but the rumor is that Russia is willing to accept it, but I have serious doubts. According to the leak, the deal will involve a ceasefire, not peace, NATO will be allowed to continue its expansion and aggression against Russia, and they will rearm Ukraine for another war. What does Russia get in return? The US will drop the sanctions against them and allow them to sell their oil to Europe again... that’s it. This is a total slam dunk for NATO and a defeat for Russia, which makes no sense. Either the leak is bullshit, or Russia’s statements about the deal being acceptable are bullshit. Someone is lying, or perhaps the whole thing is bullshit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-confirms-trump-putin-meeting-coming-days-tariffs-dozens-countries-take-effect , https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1953421966452408374

- In the Middle East, apparently, everyone is lining up to kiss Israel’s ass, normalize relations, and disarm the resistance. But wait, I hear you say, didn’t Iran defeat Israel? Why would everyone be lining up to kiss Israel’s ass in the middle of their genocide and betray Iran and the resistance when they won? Yes, that’s a good question, and it makes no sense, so someone is lying. The last 24 hours have been full of headlines and statements that make no sense given the circumstances, so I highly suspect that this is some kind of propaganda campaign or psyop. I don’t see why anyone would cooperate with the Regime after losing to Iran and during an active genocide of Arabs, no less. Who would cut a deal with the Regime at this stage and switch to the losing team? Didn’t they learn anything from India?
source: https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1953501788214116697 , https://x.com/MegaGeopolitics/status/1953501788214116697 , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-take-control-all-gaza-netanyahu-claims-not-forever , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-hosts-20-house-republicans-israel

- So the geopolitical front is a bit murky at the moment because the “breaking news” reeks of bullshit and propaganda. Israel is cooking something up, and the Regime will do anything they ask, so it’s worth keeping an eye on, but things are not what they seem. I don’t have any insider information or rumors to share at this time. I just know that what we’re being told isn’t the whole story, and there are Jewish tricks afoot.

- So the bottom line is that with things being so boring, at least we have a new mystery to solve. What is Israel up to? How is the Regime going to convince Russia to lose a war they’ve already won for no reason? How are they going to get the Arab world to kiss Israel’s ass and betray Iran after Iran defeated Israel? These are either the biggest mysteries of the century or the Jews are lying. We’ll just have to wait and see which it is.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 7th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- In the markets, there are “bubble warnings flashing for tech” that are the highest since the dot com bubble in the late 90s. Gee, you think?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bubble-warnings-flashing-tech-risk-highest-bursting-dot-com-bubble

- Stocks were up today for no reason. It’s just that with the recession canceled and the tariffs not causing the market to crash, people are pouring into risk assets because there is no other way to stay ahead of inflation.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-catch-bid-and-bonds-chop-focus-kugler-replacement-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/very-ugly-tailing-10y-auction-sees-slide-foreign-demand-plunge-bid-cover , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/macro-signals-30-recession-probability-goldman-asks-why-are-risk-assets-so-complacent-now

- The markets are expecting a rate cut in August by the FED. Will it? Who knows, and it doesn’t matter because it changes nothing either way.
source: https://www.financialexpress.com/business/investing-abroad-wall-street-opens-flat-as-investors-remain-optimistic-about-potential-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-3938589/

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Consumer Discretionary
o 3. Consumer Staples
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Information Technology
o 6. S&P 500 Index
o 7. Communications Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Healthcare
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Energy
o 7. Utilities

- What can I say? No recession plus the promise of rate cuts equals number go up.

- In geopolitics, Trump’s Jewish buddy Witkoff flew to Moscow to meet with the Russians for 3 hours, and Putin agreed to meet with Trump “soon” giving people hope that the war in Ukraine can be ended since the Russians are clearly winning as the Ukrainians have begun rounding up the elderly and the mentally ill to send to the front lines. However, I very much doubt anything will come of this. The Regime is stalling, and if Trump were going to cut his losses in Ukraine, he would have already done so. Nobody trusts a word from the Regime after the shit they pulled over Iran anyway.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dialogue-will-prevail-unexpected-scenes-witkoff-putin-envoy-strolling-through-moscow , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-trump-learns-ukrainian-military-utilizing-elderly-mentally-handicapped

- There’s nothing else going on that we haven’t already talked about. The geopolitical situation is essentially over unless Israel wants to start another war with Iran, but I’m not seeing any evidence of that. They’re focusing more on finishing off the Palestinians and covering up the Epstein files right now.

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening. The markets are now permanently broken and will be manipulated for the foreseeable future until the stagflationary depression begins. The Regime is fucked geo-politically, but the only thing they care about is Israel, so who cares?

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 5th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- There’s nothing to report in the markets. Stocks regained some of the losses on Friday as I expected, but tariffs weren’t rescinded or anything. Normies panic sell, then wait 48 hours, and if the world didn’t end, they buy everything back.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-rallied-claw-back-some-last-weeks-losses-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-pare-some-prior-week-weakness-while-bonds-add-gains-newsquawk-us-market-wrap

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Information Technology
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Bitcoin
o 6. S&P 500 Index
o 7. Healthcare

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. WTI Crude Oil
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. Energy
o 6. The US Dollar
o 7. Bonds

- The tariffs came, the world didn’t end, and everyone went back into tech stock and crypto like nothing happened. That’s the market right now and for the foreseeable future.

- In geopolitics, Trump is threatening disaster relief to states that don’t support Israel, and Netanyahu has announced the military annexation of Gaza, and so you see that all that talk of “recognizing a Palestian state in September” was nonsense because Israel is going to annex everything at gunpoint and kill everyone who resists before September, so there won’t be a Palestinian state to recognize, and if you don’t support this, Trump is going to cut your state’s disaster relief money. Update: I’m hearing rumors Trump was forced to back off the Jewish dick sucking, but we’ll see.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-base-fragments-further-he-demands-states-support-israel-or-risk-disaster-relief , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-has-reportedly-opted-permanent-military-occupation-gaza , https://x.com/hayasaka_aryan/status/1952495033589911841

- Former President of Russia, Medvedev, is openly saying that Trump is controlled by Mossad via blackmail. I mean, yes, obviously he is, we all knew that, but I wasn’t expecting the former President of Russia to just come right out and openly say it like that, but this confirms that Russia knows who runs the Regime, which is all the more reasons why Russia and China aren’t going to throw Iran under the bus.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-urges-careful-use-nuclear-rhetoric-medvedev-pivots-saying-trump-blackmailed

- Nothing to report regarding Iran, the Houthis, or the Axis of Resistance. I’m a bit surprised Israel is moving forward with their ethnic cleansing of Palestine after losing to Iran, but here we are. Iran is demanding America give them the money they froze, but America isn’t going to do that, and at the end of the day, Iran will be fine without it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-demands-compensation-us-nuclear-talks-can-resume

- Sadly, as I already discussed, it’s rational for BRICS to let Israel genocide the Palestinians to avoid a hot war with the United States. This will be a huge stain on the West’s reputation, especially after 80 years of propaganda about how America is the “shining city on the hill” and we fight for freedom and all that bullshit. However, BRICS knows they’ve won and simply want to “run out the clock” until the Western financial system collapses, which will happen sooner than people think, but probably not this year.

- The bottom line is that, like I said, this week is going to be boring and largely uneventful. Not to time to be Palestinian, though.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Not much to talk about. The market fell on Friday due to Trump imposing the tariffs he said he was going to impose instead of chickening out like he did a few months ago. Many people bought the dip with the expectation that Trump would rescind the tariffs shortly. This is why you don’t manipulate markets. Once investors are trained to expect manipulation and bailouts, they change their behavior and make the problem worse.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-after-fridays-sharp-drop , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seasonality-isnt-your-friend-now-until-mid-september

- Also, Trump admitted that the government data is bullshit, but he phrased it as the government lying about how GOOD the economy is, and not the total fucking opposite. He fired the lady in charge of the labor statistics for downwardly revising the labor numbers and admitting that the numbers had been inflated for months. Oh well, what are you gonna do, right?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/quality-data-not-strained

- Since the markets aren’t open, let’s see how Bitcoin did on Sunday. It’s up, but just barely, so since Bitcoin is a decent barometer of normie sentiment, I predict the market will be flat and uneventful. The Trump tariffs panic will be forgotten until prices begin to rise in about 90 days, and people won’t blame the tariffs for them because they don’t understand how supply chains and warehouses work. Also, the FED will be under tremendous pressure to cut rates so that they will be blamed for the inflation instead of the tariffs. None of this matters in the end, though. It’s not even an election year.
source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/business/economy/fed-governor-kugler-resigns-trump.html , https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/trump-urges-fed-board-to-assume-control-if-rates-are-not-cut

- Nothing is happening in geopolitics worth mentioning at the moment that we haven’t already talked about. The Russian deadline will expire in a week, but everyone is already calling it a nothingburger. When even the media knows Trump isn’t going to do shit, you’ve lost the plot.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-admins-secret-talks-moscow-fruitless-putin-proclaims-troops-advancing-along , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ten-days-then-what

- So the bottom line is that the week will likely be quiet, boring, and uneventful. The markets will likely stabilize and wait for rate cuts, and the Regime will continue to lose its wars. The only thing the Regime can do is try to tighten its grip on its domestic populations to hang onto power as it loses its empire. Oh well, it’s not like I had anything better to do.

GSB was down the other day, but here is the MMM that you missed.

Monkey’s Market Minute: August 1st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- So remember how oil costs $70 to pull up out of the ground, and production has been falling for the last couple of months because the price of oil has been below $70. Well, today the EIA is saying that the US broke crude oil output records in May, which means production is at an all-time high while also being cut due to the low price at the same time. I’m not even mad or surprised about being lied to at this point. I’m just annoyed and bored with the endless lies.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Output-Set-New-Record-in-May-EIA.html

- In the markets, stocks reversed from their dip yesterday due to the dashing of rate cut hopes because the positive GDP is bullish for stocks. Everything is bullish for stocks! Bad news is good news because it means rate cuts. Good news is good news because even without rate cuts, number go up! Number only go up! Only four stocks are holding up the entire market at this point, and they ALL have to do with AI. Did you know OpenAI has never made a profit? The only ones turning profits are companies like NVidia, who are “selling the shovels” to the gold rush, but none of these AI companies are turning a profit themselves, and this is the ENTIRE market now.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-soar-speculative-mania-takes-hold-july-dollar-bitcoin-bid-bucking-bond

- Meanwhile, Trump is bringing all the tariffs back . . . ALL OF THEM. 10% global tariffs, with select countries having 15%-35% tariffs depending on the deal they made. Remember a few months ago, how this was the end of the world? Apparently tariffs don’t matter anymore for absolutely no reason. Trump’s not “chickening out” either; they go into effect August 1st, which is right now. Markets to all-time highs baby! Number only go up!
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/t-day-trump-raises-tariff-dozens-countries-minimum-rate-10 , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-fade-tech-earnings-upside-ahead-trade-deadline-newsquawk-us-market-wrap , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-storm-another-record-high-after-blowout-tech-earnings

- Hedge funds are preparing for a pullback, for what it’s worth, but I don’t expect a crash or anything. The government is going to keep the bubble inflated until it can’t, then everything crashes together.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-cut-longs-stock-market-greed-sets

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Communications Technology
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Gold
o 5. Utilities
o 6. The US Dollar
o 7. Bonds

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Healthcare
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Real Estate
o 5. Materials
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. Broad Commodities

- Today was a day of reversals from yesterday because markets like to do that sometimes for little or no reason, and it will probably happen again by the end of the week.

- There isn’t much to talk about in geopolitics that we haven’t already talked about. India feels betrayed by Trump for imposing tariffs on them for doing business with Russia because they were hoping to continue to play both sides, and I’m a little surprised Trump pulled this move because India hasn’t been utilized to its full potential as a proxy for the Regime within BRICS, and they’re already being betrayed and thrown away. Also, Indians LOVE Israel, so what the hell?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hellbent-derailing-indias-rise-great-power , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-russia-sanctions-ultimatum-will-blow-americas-face-jeffrey-sachs

- There isn’t anything else to talk about. Russia is dismissing Trump’s threats and saying that they’re immune to sanctions, which is true. They just don’t care. They know they’ve already won, and they are no longer indulging in Trump’s fake diplomacy. They gave him the benefit of the doubt based on his promises to end the war, but now that they know he’s full of shit, they are simply ignoring him and winning the war “the old-fashioned way”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-threatens-russias-failed-former-president-medvedev-who-better-watch-his-words , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-spox-boasts-we-have-developed-immunity-sanctions , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/high-death-toll-kiev-overnight-strikes-russia-reports-major-advance-east

- So the bottom line is that nothing happened today. The markets are gay and the government is lying, but literally what else is new? They’ve been doing this since 2023. The wars are over, and while I’m still confused why Trump double-crossed India, it doesn’t matter because India was never going to be anything but a temporary ally anyway. Maybe we’ll learn more about why this happened, or maybe Trump is just mad about losing and taking it out on his allies because he can. Who knows? Trump’s kind of a dumbass, frankly.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 31st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- With the recession cancelled and inflation heading higher due to the end of recession fears, I was expecting energy prices to rise, but… nope. Although analysts agree with me that prices will likely head higher.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Prices-Likely-Headed-Higher-Over-The-Long-Term.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/70-WTI-Returns-as-Trump-Targets-India-Over-Russian-Oil-Ties.html

- In the markets, the dollar rose to 2-month highs due to the FED not cutting rates as the market expected. I’m surprised stocks fell on the announcement of no rate cuts despite the positive GDP. Do the normies suspect the GDP numbers are fake?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-jumps-2-mo-highs-stocks-dump-hawkish-powell-trumps-dovish-fed , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-finished-lower-hawkish-powell-although-futures-rebounded-after-market-earnings

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Crypto
o 6. Communications Technology
o 7. Information Technology

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Broad Commodities
o 4. Materials
o 5. Gold
o 6. Real Estate
o 7. Energy

- Energy didn’t go up much today, but it outperformed based on disappointment regarding rate cuts being cancelled.

- In geopolitics, India has been betrayed by Trump, as Trump announced 15% tariffs on India with additional penalties for doing business with Russia. This shocked India’s government which thought that they were going to get special treatment for betraying BRICS from within, but it turns out that Trump doesn’t care, probably because he knows BRICS has already won and there’s nothing he can do, so he’s just beating up on his vassals to feel better about it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/western-pressure-india-over-russia-already-backfired-even-if-it-partially-complies , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rupee-slides-after-trump-threatens-india-over-russia-trade

- Russia is completely dismissing Trump’s ultimatum to agree to a ceasefire in 10 days, “or else”. Nobody is going to cuck to Trump, and I honestly don’t know what Trump is hoping to accomplish at this point.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-shortened-deadline-putin-will-soon-reveal-which-them-miscalculated , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/step-towards-war-kremlin-slams-trump-threats-unleashes-more-deadly-missile-attacks

- In the Middle East, Israel is annexing Gaza with Trump’s blessing. The UK and France are threatening to recognize a Palestinian state “in September,” which might be a soft deadline for Israel to wrap up the genocide by September. Meanwhile, Iran is switching from using the US-controlled GPS to China’s BeiDou system, presumably to make their missiles more accurate and harder to intercept by the West. Iran has largely been dropped from the news as focus has returned to Russia. We’ll probably check back in on Iran after the deadline with Russia expires and nothing happens.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-plans-abandon-gps-replace-chinas-beidou-system , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/starmer-warns-uk-could-join-france-recognizing-palestinian-state , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/end-game-netanyahu-now-plans-annex-gaza-bowing-extremist-members-coalition , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netherlands-labels-israel-threat-national-security-unprecedented-move

- The bottom line is that now that Trump has decided to keep the bubble inflated, reignite inflation pressure, and keep rates high at the same time, things are going to get spicy over the next 6 months. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation is a disaster, with the Regime’s only priority appearing to be to buy time for Israel to finish their genocide. However, I’m bored because all the important decisions have now been made. There’s nothing left to do but watch things play out slowly. Prepare for stagflation by the way, shits going to get bad.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 29th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Nothing new to report today in the markets. The markets are bullish based on expectations for rate cuts and bailouts, just like last week. The trade deal with the EU is benefiting the dollar at the Euro’s expense, but we already talked about that yesterday.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shorts-fired-deutsche-bank-sees-positioning-back-line-earnings-growth , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/vix-flashing-risk-gold-etfs-are-filling-real-metal-still-wins , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-bid-while-eur-sinks-trade-deal-benefits-buck-newsquawk-us-market-wrap

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Brent Crude Oil
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Energy
o 4. The US Dollar
o 5. Bitcoin
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. The VIX

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Real Estate
o 2. Materials
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Utilities
o 5. Bonds
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. Healthcare

- The inflation trade gained today, which confirms rate cut expectations. The FED doesn’t want to cut rates yet because they know prices will rise due to tariffs shortly, and they know Trump will blame the FED and not the tariffs for it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07-28/japans-inflation-crisis-could-trigger-next-global-bond-meltdown , https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-07-28/energy-new-play

- In geopolitics, Trump is threatening Russia that if they don’t “make a deal” is 10-12 days that Trump is going to do something. He didn’t say what, but something. Is he going to bomb Moscow and catch a nuke in the face? Probably not. What happens in 2 weeks that’s so important? Who knows? Is Russia going to cuck? Nope.
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/trump-says-he-ll-reduce-50-day-deadline-he-gave-putin-for-truce , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/politics/deadline-russia-ukraine-trump

- Meanwhile, Putin is again offering to mediate between the US and Iran, which shows Putin knows that Israel is the weak spot in the Regime, which may be related to Trump’s threats. Like I said, the Regime has already lost. BRICS is just “running out the clock” and trying to avoid a nuclear war, but the Regime is still acting like they’re in charge, even if they’re lying to themselves.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-informs-bibi-hes-ready-mediate-irans-nuclear-program-trump-makes-more-threats , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-gaza-we-have-get-kids-fed

- The Houthis are escalating their attacks again. It looks like Israel bombing their port for the 100th time didn’t defeat them. Who could have guessed?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-escalate-attacks-ships-linked-firms-dealing-israel-regardless-nationality

- Pepe Escobar is worried that the Regime is going to pivot to starting a war with China, and while the Regime would LIKE to do that, I don’t think they will. Trump just paused the trade war with China a second time for another 90 days because China didn’t cuck, and it’s not going to cuck. The Regime has no way to defeat Russia or even Iran. They couldn’t defeat China in their wildest dreams. All they can do is threaten nuclear war and hope that BRICS cucks, but this is the 3rd or 4th time they’ve tried that, and it hasn’t worked. If BRICS were going to cuck, they would have already done it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-destroy-russia-fail-no-problem-lets-destroy-china

- We’ll see what happens in 12 days when Trump’s deadline against Russia expires, and see what Trump does. My guess is something in between jack shit and releasing the Epstein files, but a lot closer to jack shit.

- The bottom line is that everything is still happening as I’ve foreseen, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. The UK has pivoted hard to oppressing its citizens via internet censorship, and I expect the US to follow as they see their empire slipping through their fingers to hold onto power. This s why I say that there will have to be a civil war in the end, but that’s a “down the road” issue. Nothing to be concerned with for the next year or so.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 28th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The big news over the weekend is that Trump and the EU have reached a trade deal, lowering tariffs from 25% to 15%, and that’s it. Remember that there were no tariffs before, and 25% was the end of the world 3 months ago, but 15% is a “deal”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-eu-reach-tariff-deal-avoid-trade-war , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanleys-three-reasons-why-market-should-not-ignore-tariffs

- Since the market expects bailouts and money printing, a lot of people are using that as an excuse to buy Bitcoin and avoid cash because the dollar will crash when Trump bails out the market and “money printer go brrrr”, but remember the “dollar milkshake theory”. The dollar will actually RISE relative to other western currencies which are commonly traded on the FOREX. The Yen and the Euro will crash before the dollar does. If you need a refresher, I’ll provide a link to a presentation by Brent Johnson who coined the theory, but I believe Brent is right which is why I’m not losing any sleep staying in cash despite impending bailouts and money printing.
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da6hMy5sp1M , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-fafo-moment-here

- The month is over, so any “squeeze” based on options contracts will have been “squozed” and I expect the market to settle heading into next month, but nothing will have changed. The market is still primed for the government to bail the market out despite GDP anticipated to be positive next month. Companies are still laying off workers, and the economy is still bad even if the government cooks the books to hide it, so bailouts will still be required. Shit’s fucked yo.
- Geopolitically, Trump has “paused” the tariffs on China for another 90 days, so much for the war against BRICS. Notice that the Regime is beating up its own allies and cucking to its rivals. This is a sign of decline. The Regime is trying to use fear to control its vassals that it still has leverage over, but they have lost control of the global system.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-us-extend-tariff-pause-another-90-days , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-did-not-start-war-another-fiery-showdown-un-over-beijing-moscow-relations

- Trump is trying to use the Nuclear Disarmament Treaty to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire because they have literally no other card to play other than threatening nuclear war at this point. Again, they know they can’t win, but they’re stalling in order to buy time for Israel to kill more Palestinians out of little more than spite. The Regime is finished, but they are “going for the high score” on their way out.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-will-engage-russia-nuclear-disarmament-treaty-trump-says , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/epstein-exponential-debt-signs-system-unraveling , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGEU2ebwW4A

- I don’t expect any new developments geopolitically this week. The Regime is stalling for time and Israel is stepping up its genocide, not because they think they’ll win, but simply out of spite and to cause as much death and destruction as they can for as long as they can. While this is morally horrible, it’s in BRICS’s interest to do nothing in order to avoid open war with the US and “run out the clock” as the Regime collapses economically and militarily. It’s very possible that the atrocities will get worse in an effort to goad BRICS into taking action rather than running out the clock. Yes, Israel is basically a super villain literally murdering children in order to lure the hero into a trap. It’s absolutely shameful to see governments that once fought for freedom and liberty become … THIS, but that’s the power of corruption.

- The bottom line is that unless I see something surprising, I’m calling things now. The Regime is finished, and so is Israel. However, this collapse will take years, and the Regime’s answer is to focus on censorship and domestic control in order to prevent civil war as things fall apart militarily and economically, so get ready for that. Things will very likely begin to crash during Trumps’ term, but not next month. Of course, there could always be a black swan event that changes the timeframe and speeds things along, but as it stands down, we’re basically watching the Regime collapse in slow motion as they stall for time so Israel can kill more children.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 25th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Not too much to talk about, but we do have confirmation of something that I didn’t think would happen until AFTER the market crash. Apparently, the government is already implementing bailout proceedings AHEAD OF the event to short-circuit the crash, make the problem infinitely worse, and collapse the entire financial system. YAY

- What am I talking about? Remember how I said that as the dollar collapsed that the Regime would cannibalize its vassals, and rather than the dollar crash, the Euro and other Western currencies would crash first as the Regime cannibalized them? That process has officially begun with Japan. Japan will be the first Western economy to be destroyed and cannibalized by the United States, followed by Europe. While Japan is “kissing Trump’s ass” due to its reliance on the US market, it has more to do with Japan’s debt. They are selling US bonds “at record pace,” but between the tariff and “investment” obligations, the US is making its debt problems worse. Even AFTER the deal Japan made, Trump is only lowering the tariff from 25% to 15%. Japan and Australia are also not enthusiastic about being the next Ukraine in a war against China.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/defending-dollar-supremacy-may-be-next-phase-us-china-trade-war , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPX0RZ595l8 , https://min.news/en/economy/af3fcf912562f0ab44f67febc45f6d52.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-japan-are-seemingly-having-second-thoughts-about-de-facto-asian-nato

- In the markets, it’s more of the same. Tech stocks are hitting all-time highs, this time not based on sales, but based on “capital expense expectation”, which simply means the company plans on spending its profits on new investments (likely more AI projects), which I suppose is better than simply buying back its stock, but the economy is being ignored. Even Elon Musk is warning about the economy, but nobody is listening.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-expect-when-alphabet-reports-today , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alphabet-shares-slide-after-big-upward-revision-capex-outlook-search-revenues-soar , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-stock-flat-after-q2-earnings-light-revenue-and-earnings-heavy-vision-lacking-guidance , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-shares-fall-more-8-after-elon-musk-warns-rough-quarters-ahead , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mind-short-squeeze-how-goldman-trading-short-squeeze-euphoria-and-its-looming-end

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. WTI Crude Oil
o 3. Brent Crude Oil
o 4. Energy
o 5. Bitcoin
o 6. Information Technology
o 7. The US Dollar

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Consumer Discretionary
o 2. Materials
o 3. Gold
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. Consumer Staples
o 6. Crypto
o 7. Real Estate

- You’d think tariffs would be a bigger deal, especially after the Japan deal, where the tariff was merely lowered from 25% to 15%. That’s still a big deal, and Japan is one of America’s best allies and trading partners.

- The big update on geopolitics is that I keep seeing references to September. Congress went into recess until September to avoid further debate over the Epstein files. France will recognize Palestine in September. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Israel attacking Iran before September. I have no idea what they think is going to be different this time compared to last time, but it’s now or never, I guess.
source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/22/house-recess-jeffrey-epstein-files , https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-recalls-team-qatar-gaza-ceasefire-talks-collapse-again , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-iranian-helicopter-confronts-us-destroyer-approaching-territorial-waters , https://www.newsweek.com/irans-president-issues-threat-2102745

- There isn’t anything else going on. The negotiations with Russia are going nowhere. Russia knows that the war won’t end until the Regime is defeated utterly, and nobody trusts any “diplomacy” from the Regime, regardless. Luckily, if my September hunch is correct, we won’t have to wait long.

- The bottom line is that the geopolitical situation is going as expected, so no surprises there. The markets will likely fall by the end of the week after the “smart money” has a 24-hour head start over the normies. Tariffs are happening, and the market doesn’t seem to care. I guess kicking the can down the road for another 6 months by cooking the books on GDP is all that matters.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 22nd, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- The energy market is flat, and I may simply stop reporting on it since the commodities market is broken and not really worth tracking any longer. The energy market particularly can’t win because recessions are bearish for energy, so even if the government lowers interest rates and prints money, if they do so to prevent a crash, it will still be perceived as bearish for energy. This is why you should rotate out of energy when the market peaks and prepare for a recession.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-as-US-EU-Trade-War-Looms.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Upstream-MA-Drops-34-as-US-Activity-Slumps.html

- In the markets, meme stock mania has returned. Interest rates are still high. We have a crappy labor market, and nobody can afford their rent, but it’s meme stock time again! I’ve even seen an article from today that it’s a myth that stocks only go up. People now believe that stocks only go up, and we need to write articles to remind people that crashes can hypothetically happen.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meme-stock-mania-makes-glorious-return-thanks-mindblowing-open-gamma-squeeze , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Dangerous-Myth-That-Stocks-Only-Go-Up.html , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-warns-beware-end-month

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Gold
o 2. The VIX
o 3. Communications Technology
o 4. Bonds
o 5. Materials
o 6. Real Estate
o 7. Consumer Discretionary

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. Natural Gas
o 2. Energy
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Industrials
o 5. Healthcare
o 6. Bitcoin
o 7. WTI Crude Oil

- The media narrative is touting stocks, but the actual sectors are showing gold, bonds, and other recession hedges outperformed, which could mean the normies are being manipulated by a media narrative to keep the bubble inflated. I’ll have to see how the rest of the week goes. It’s very rare that sector performance would be signalling a recession while the media is talking about “meme stock mania”.

- In geopolitics, the Houthis are launching more missiles at Israel, and Israel is destroying the same port they’ve destroyed several times already, and neither side will accomplish anything. Trump is pretending to be mad at Netanyahu for all the people he’s killing, but it’s all kayfabe bullshit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-pummels-hodeidah-port-again-says-yemens-fate-same-tehran , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-officials-frustrated-trigger-happy-madman-netanyahu-who-just-wont-behave

- The US has moved tactical nuclear weapons into the UK, and some analysts are saying that NATO is preparing for war with Russia, which wil 100% go nuclear, so here we go again. The Regime is going to threaten nuclear war unless Russia and China let them win the wars they’ve lost. They’re really gonna do it you guys. You better let the Jews win or else the nukes are gonna fly.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/plan-it-martin-armstrong-sees-100-chance-nuclear-war , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/analyzing-ambiguity-over-american-nato-arms-arrangement-ukraine

- That’s about it in terms of updates. Iran says they’ll re-engage in diplomacy with the US, but they obviously don’t trust anything Trump says and have no intention of giving up their nuclear enrichment or anything else, but if it buys them time, so be it.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/analyzing-ambiguity-over-american-nato-arms-arrangement-ukraine

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening geopolitically. The Regime is trying to start shit again after losing several times in a row in the belief that Russia and China will cuck this time (they won’t). I’m more interested in the market activity signalling recession fears while the media touts meme stocks and bull runs. I wonder if we’ll see something interesting happen. It’s too soon for profit taking, and it’s not the end of the month, so it can’t be options contracts expiring. I’m very intrigued.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 21st, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- As the commodities markets reopen after the weekend, energy is flat. This isn’t surprising since the Middle East is relatively calm despite Israel still genociding the Palestinians and the Houthis launching missiles into Israel. As long as the US and Israel aren’t threatening Iran, everything is going according to plan.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Remain-Flat-as-Markets-Digest-EU-Sanctions-on-Russia.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Is-Playing-The-Long-Game41576.html

- In the markets, the media is positive about higher stock valuations, although there are some who are worried that Trump’s tariffs might kill the bull market. The irony of this is that the market is up based on bailout and lower interest rate expectations, so the market is completely dependent on Trump, no matter what. The market is completely fake and gay.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-trump-ruin-markets-summer-vibes , https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/gold-getting-too-pricey-heres-where-smart-money-rotating-next , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-best-way-tell-if-we-are-another-stock-bubble

- In geopolitics, nothing is happening that we haven’t already talked about. BRICS is still winning, and the Regime is taking out its frustrations on its allies to try to use fear to keep its vassals loyal. This won’t work, of course, but they refuse to accept defeat and negotiate a new international order peacefully, so it’s whatever.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-again-threatens-destroy-new-iran-nuclear-objects-tehran-teases-pullout-npt , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-and-its-one-two-three-what-are-we-fighting-natos-wars , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-orders-evacuations-central-gaza-widening-military-offensive , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-will-target-any-coalition-willing-forces-ukraine , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mossad-chief-pushes-us-assistance-removing-gazans-outside-countries

- The bottom line is that the next move is up to the US and Israel, whether or not they want to continue the wars and when. The markets are basically set for next month and a positive GDP, which means no recession for another 6 months. If there is a black swan, everyone expects bailouts and printed money. I expect a boring week.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 18th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- I know I usually publish these newsletters the night before, but I had a collaborative stream with Erovenus, which went on for several hours, and it was already late by the time it ended.
- In commodities, energy is flat. Even with whispers of a resumption of the war between Israel and Iran, most people are betting that nothing will happen and supplies won’t be affected. While the markets are pricing in new all-time highs for tech stocks and crypto based on the government lowering rates and printing money, they aren’t betting on higher commodity prices. This is because the commodity prices are only one month out, so longer-term predictions aren’t relevant.
source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slide-Under-Trade-and-Inventory-Pressures.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slide-Under-Trade-and-Inventory-Pressures.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Could-See-a-Significant-Upside-Shift.html

- The markets have been flat, but the bond market is cracking. The foreign demand for US bonds is shrinking, leaving only European central banks that are buying the bonds with dollar swap lines, which is debt monetization but laundered through the Eurodollar system. There is an expectation for a 0.25% cut in July by the FED, which won’t mean much on its own, but the normie expectation is that the government will lower rates and bail everyone out to keep the bubble inflated, and even a modest cut of 0.25% will feed that narrative. If GDP comes in positive in August (which I believe it will based on the buying I’m seeing from “the smart money” we’ll be in this economic limbo for another 6 months as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate but stocks and crypto continue to go up as everyone becomes ever-more concentrated in the riskiest asset classes until the financial system crashes whenever a “black swan” event occurs. When will that be? Who knows?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-breadth-demand-treasuries-thats-problem , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-cut-demanding-trump-risks-vicious-backlash-bond-vigilantes

- The winners in the market today are:
o 1. Utilities
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Agriculture Commodities
o 4. Consumer Discretionary
o 5. Broad Commodities
o 6. Gold
o 7. Materials

- The losers in the market today are:
o 1. Bitcoin
o 2. Healthcare
o 3. The VIX
o 4. Energy
o 5. Brent Crude Oil
o 6. Consumer Staples
o 7. WTI Crude Oil

- The markets are signaling inflation based on sector performance only a day or two after inflation came in lower than expected, and the media was calling everyone who predicted inflation caused by tariffs wrong and stupid.

- In geopolitics, the one-sided war between Israel and Syria continues, and the apparent answer is as simple as the Jews don’t want to work with any Muslims. Even controlled Muslim assets like HTS are not to be trusted, and despite Jolani doing everything he’s been told and not resisting Israel in any way, the Israeli’s are calling for his assassination anymore. He’s currently fled to Turkey for his safety. The Israelis are happy to work with the Druze in Syria since they’ve sworn loyalty to Israel, so it looks like the dispute is that Syria thought that the US would protect them and that they didn’t have to swear loyalty to Israel, and now they’re finding out who really runs shit.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-leaders-call-syrian-presidents-assassination , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-regrets-deadly-attack-gaza-church-after-terse-trump-call , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/huckabee-condemns-west-bank-settlers-terrorist-murder-tampa-man

- There isn’t much else going on. Russia is responding to the US and NATO’s threats against Russia by pointing out that they’re writing checks with their mouth that their asses can’t cash, but everyone secretly knows that Russia has won the war, but is keeping the war going for whatever reason.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-blasts-hostile-us-talk-nato-quickly-seizing-kaliningrad , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-believes-russia-will-win-ukraine-its-just-matter-how-long

- With Israel overthrowing the Syrian government, nobody is talking about Iran any longer. I don’t feel bad for Syria or anything, as they did betray Assad and they reap what they sow, but I thought the plan was to use HTS against Iran since they’re a loyal puppet. Israel seems like they’re taking out their frustration at their inability to defeat Iran in Syria, like an abusive spouse coming home from a hard day at work and beating his wife.

- The bottom line is that nothing is happening. The markets are essentially flat, and all the hype has died down. The Middle East is relatively stable since Israel is only beating on their allies and leaving BRICS alone. Again, if the US and Israel stop aggressing, the wars will simply stop because nobody wants war except for the US and Israel. The Ukraine war is just a LARP at this point. Russia doesn’t even take these clowns seriously any longer, and they’re not going to do shit anyway.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 17th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat with production falling and shale entering the “profit danger zone” due to prices being under $70 for far too long.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shale-Sputters-as-Oil-Slides-Into-Profit-Danger-Zone.html , https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EIA-Settles-Market-With-Reports-of-US-Oil-Inventories-Falling.html

- In the markets, the relatively soft inflation data and rumors of Jerome Powell resigning caused normies to bid up the inflation trade based on lower rates. Metals and crypto went up because crypto is “digital gold” still. Everyone thinks inflation is over and tariffs don’t matter anymore because “number go up”.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-ultimately-gained-choppy-trade-amid-cooler-ppi-data-and-fed-independence-concerns , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-bubble-now-bigger-dot-com-tech-bubble-its-peak , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-spells-trouble-powell-mentions-inflation-tumble-4-year-low-growth-concerns-mount , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessent-says-formal-process-find-successor-jerome-powell-has-begun , https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-sparks-market-chaos-likely-fire-powell-soon

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. Crypto
o 2. Bitcoin
o 3. Natural Gas
o 4. Healthcare
o 5. Real Estate
o 6. Agriculture Commodities
o 7. Financials

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Energy
o 3. The US Dollar
o 4. Brent Crude Oil
o 5. WTI Crude Oil
o Everything else was up.

- And just like that tariffs don’t matter because the FED’s going to cut rates and there’s no inflation whatsoever. Even Zerohedge is downplaying the tariffs and claiming all the economists were wrong and this time really is different.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-prices-blow-tariff-flation-narrative

- In geopolitics Israel is attacking Syria, supposedly over the Sunni genocide of the Israeli-aligned Druze. This is significant because there was a rumor that the US removed HTS from the terrorist list in order to arm them against Iran, but now Israel is bombing them even though the government is claiming that Israel is their friend. I’m not sure what Israel’s game is other than they do NOT want the Syrian HTS government armed, even if it’s to attack Iran because Israel doesn’t trust them with those kinds of weapons. This is a developing story, so if I learn more or come with a better hypothesis, I’ll let you know.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-conducts-massive-strikes-damascus-amid-sectarian-attacks-druze

- Trump is also already backing off this threats against Russia claiming that he’s not going to provide Ukraine with long range missiles and that they shouldn’t attack Moscow, which goes totally against what was said over the weekend.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-clarifies-no-offensive-long-range-weapons-ukraine-declares-im-nobodys-side

- Nothing to report regarding Iran or the other players.

- The bottom line is that with Trump already backing off his tough talk against Russia, I guess that was a giant nothing-burger. Still curious as to what Israel’s goals are in attacking Syria other than to prevent the US from arming them against Iran. The trade war with BRICS is going as expected, but apparently tariffs and trade wars are bullish now for whatever reason because “number go up”. Whew, I was worried that tariffs were a tax that caused prices to rise and lower people’s standard of living, but apparently this time it’s different because rate cuts are just around the corner because the economy is doing so well. All those layoffs and people not affording rent were a figment of my imagination.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/02/economy/us-jobs-market-june-preview

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 15th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat, and there isn’t anything to report.

- In the markets, as I thought, normies are suddenly and expectedly freaking out about Trump’s tariffs all of a sudden for no reason when they shrugged them off completely last week.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-pared-early-weakness-despite-latest-tariff-threats-newsquawk-asia-pac-market-open , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-stocks-crypto-loving-trump-policy-flipflop-detox-gorge

- We have more to talk about, but it blends into the geopolitics news, so let’s get the watchlist out of the way first:

- The winners in the market today were:
o 1. The VIX
o 2. Natural Gas
o 3. Crypto
o 4. Bitcoin
o 5. Communications Technology
o 6. Financials
o 7. Real Estate

- The losers in the market today were:
o 1. WTI Crude Oil
o 2. Brent Crude Oil
o 3. Energy
o 4. Materials
o 5. Gold
o 6. Bonds
o 7. Broad Commodities

- The normies are suddenly worried that the tariffs are legit going to happen, but they’re pouring into crypto because they still believe the digital gold meme and think that as the government keeps printing and bailing out Wall Street that this is bullish for crypto. I think this is madness because BRICS was the perfect opportunity to replace the dollar with Bitcoin if crypto was the future of money, but they didn’t. BRICS pay uses a stablecoin. A lot of criminal organizations that previously used Bitcoin have switched to other crypto tokens because Bitcoin is too expensive. So, who is using Bitcoin as money? Nobody. Why would the demand for Bitcoin skyrocket in the future if nobody is using it? Because “numbers go up”. Bitcoin will follow the tech sector down when the market eventually cracks.

- Geopolitics and the market intersect due to BRICS-wide tariffs, which are pushing countries towards China. Both Canada and the EU are responding to Trump’s tariffs by extending their hand to China. I don’t think Canada and the EU are going to join BRICS or anything, but they don’t appreciate being tariffed by Trump and are trying to push back so as not to appear weak. What does all of this mean? Absolutely nothing! The tariffs are a tax on American importers. Sure, it hurts importer revenue due to lost sales, but people will just pay the higher price and move on. Prices have been going up for years already, so people are used to it. Russia is already sanctioned to hell, so tariffs mean nothing to them. China’s economy is steadily growing despite the trade with the US, and the US needs China more than China needs the US.
source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates/?id=123730069 , https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-tariffs-live-eu-trade-ministers-meeting-discuss-new-us-30-rate-2025-07-14/ , https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/china-trade-canada-carney-trump-tariffs-1.7563570 , https://www.dw.com/en/europe-walks-tightrope-amid-intensifying-us-china-rivalry/a-73273914

- Another development today was Trump’s big announcement for Ukraine, and it was that he’s going to sell a lot of missiles to Europe to give to Ukraine. This is brilliant of Trump, and it screws over Europe tremendously. Let me explain: We don’t have any missiles right now. We took missiles away from Ukraine to give to Israel last month, and we are basically out of missiles. What Trump is doing is that he’s selling CONTRACTS to Europe for missiles that won’t exist for years for a war that will be over in a matter of months. Do you see the genius of this? Trump is sticking Europe with the bill at the 11th hour, forcing them to buy missiles that won’t be delivered until the war is already over. Will this new announcement make any difference in the war in Ukraine? Absolutely not, which isn’t the point. Trump knows the war is over, which is also why Trump said the 100% Russian tariffs won’t even go into effect for 50 days. Why 50 days? Why not now? The war could be over in 50 days. This isn’t about winning the war. This is about sticking Europe with the bill for the war.
source: https://www.axios.com/2025/07/14/trump-missiles-ukraine-weapons-attack-russia , https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump , https://www.scrippsnews.com/us-news/trump-set-to-meet-with-nato-chief-as-weapons-deal-with-ukraine-appears-imminent

- In Israel, they’re moving forward with their concentration camp plan. Some European countries are offering Palestinians citizenship if they give up their land to Israel, but so far most Palestinians would rather risk getting shot by the IDF to get water than fly to Europe and go on welfare like many other Muslims. Make of that what you will.
source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/middleeast/israel-gaza-ehud-olmert-concentration-camp-intl , https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/13/israel-gaza-idf-children-killed/ , https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-hopes-for-gaza-deal-within-a-week-as-sources-allege-netanyahu-stalling/ , https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-861014

- In Iran, the Iranians said that they aren’t even going to bother with negotiations with the US if they insist on Iran stopping its enrichment. Trump is threatening to attack Iran again, and Iran doesn’t care. I don’t think they want a war with the US, but they know that war is inevitable, and that they won the last time and nothing has changed, which would make the outcome any different than the first time.
source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-us-nuclear-talks-uranium-enrichment-5237946 , https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/trump-says-u-s-attacked-three-iran-nuclear-sites/6310932/ , https://truthout.org/articles/us-leaders-gave-up-on-diplomacy-with-iran-we-must-make-them-return-to-it/

- So the bottom line is that the Regime is still losing. Trump is trying to buy time and stick Europe with the bill, but ultimately, the game is over. The Regime went “all in” against Iran and lost. Israel’s plan for a concentration camp in Gaza is such horrible PR that I almost think they WANT the world to hate them. The fact that no Muslim country is siding with Israel and the Jews are trying to send the Palestinians to Europe is very telling. I’m also not seeing ANY movement on the Sunni versus Shiite war, which may mean nothing, or it could mean that the Jews have really stepped in it. I honestly don’t know how they get out of this without taking the L and not doubling down, but I’m pretty sure they’re still trying to double down and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat somehow. I can’t see a single path that leads to victory at this point, and between the Gaza concentration camp plan and the Epstein files not going away, the Regime REALLY needs to focus on damage control and live to fight another day. It’s not the time to start another war with Iran. However, they’ll probably double down.

Monkey’s Market Minute: July 14th, 2025

Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys. Learn how to manage your own money or seek out a professional who can give you personalized financial services. This newsletter is just my thoughts and opinions, and if you copy me and lose the money, you have nobody to blame but yourself.

- Energy is flat as the commodities market reopens after the weekend. There are articles about India importing oil from the United States instead of their next-door neighbor, Russia. I can’t imagine a scenario where US oil is cheaper to import from the other side of the world than Russian oil, but India thinks they can spoil for the Regime not only within BRICS but in the middle of Asia, surrounded by Russia and China.
source: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-and-Brazil-Become-Key-Oil-Suppliers-to-India.html , https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Needs-Strong-Petrochemical-Sector-to-Compete-With-China.html

- In the markets, analysts are calling the fact that everyone is ignoring the tariffs and bidding stocks higher the “TACO trade” meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out”, which means that nobody believes Trump will impose the tariffs he’s threatening to, but the irony is that the reason Trump chickened out on tariffs before was because the marke was panicking. By not panicking and betting on him chickening out, he has no incentive to chicken out at all.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-taco-trades-just-get-burritod , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fool-me-once , https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-market-care-about-tariffs-anymore

- Similarly to how the US lost to Russia and then tried to go to war with Iran thinking that Iran would be an easier target, the US has decided to repeat the failed trade war blueprint with Brazil (the “B” in BRICS). Brazil exports a lot of coffee and orange juice to America, and Brazil has a trade SURPLUS with the US, making the trade war nonsensical unless you know that this is all about BRICS and not about trade fairness.
source: https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/white-house-defends-tariffs-brazil-despite-trade-surplus/story?id=123707996 , https://www.wmur.com/article/trump-tariff-brazil/65371644 , https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/trump-brazil-tariffs-bolsonaro.html

- Will the tone on Wall Street change next week? My hunch is that the media will publish scaremongering articles to induce the normies (i.e. retail investors) to panic sell while the insiders bet on Trump cancelling the tariffs at the last minute. If nobody panics, the tariffs will happen, so if I were them, I’d use the media to get the normies to “take one for the team” and panic without selling myself.

- In geopolitics, Iran has denied the false report that Russia has told Iran to accept the zero-enrichment “deal” by the Regime. I told you so. Why would Russia throw Iran under the bus now, of all times, when Iran defeated Israel and the US on their own?
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-shifts-iran-stance-now-reports-supports-zero-enrichment-plan-backed-us

- Trump has said that he has a “major announcement” regarding Ukraine on Monday. My hunch is that he’s going to announce more weapons and money, which will do nothing except betray his supporters again, but after the Epstein cover-up, I don’t think Trump cares any longer.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-teases-major-statement-russia-coming-days , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-send-300m-worth-weapons-ukraine-drawn-pentagon-reserves

- Trump is also threatening to restart his failed war against the Houthis in response to the Houthis sinking another ship and launching more missiles at Israel. I’m sure the 2,000th air strike is going to do the trick this time.
source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-admin-teases-resumption-anti-houthi-airstrikes-after-ship-attacks , https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-again-target-tel-aviv-israelis-plead-more-us-raids-yemen

- So the bottom line is like I said on the show, nobody wants war except the US and Israel, so if the US and Israel just stop, everything stops. However, I’m not seeing any evidence that the US and Israel are going to do anything but double-down. BRICS is trying not to defeat the Regime too hard because they’re trying to avoid provoking a nuclear war. I don’t see any path to victory for the Regime. They’re merely trying to act tough and not accept defeat. I’m still waiting for my false flag attack, too. Will we see a false flag this week? Maybe. We’ll see.